hawkeye_wx Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I finished with 1.42" of rain, equalling the heaviest December rain in the last five years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 I finished with 1.42" of rain, equalling the heaviest December rain in the last five years. 1.04" of rain total here. I see you haven't had measurable snow yet either. Looks like we may go into mid Dec without anything measurable lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z op GFS shows a pretty good storm around the 16th-17th. Pretty much crickets before that. Obviously that can change pretty quickly though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Looks like no sun today. Hopefully the GFS is right about things getting sunny for a few days starting tomorrow, even if it's gonna be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Interesting discussion ongoing in the main forum about the extremely +AO regime we're in and what it could mean in the future. Basically the thought is that it could allow for an extreme buildup of Arctic air up north that could flood southward with an intense/record type cold outbreak at some point especially if the AO flips negative. That may be weeks down the road though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Tough thing about December is that it's a core winter month and it is integral to the success (or lack thereof) of the winter as a whole. You can salvage a decent winter after a sucky December but aside from a few exceptions like 1993-94 or 1998-99, it's tough to register an "A/B+" type winter if December truly fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Tough thing about December is that it's a core winter month and it is integral to the success (or lack thereof) of the winter as a whole. You can salvage a decent winter after a sucky December but aside from a few exceptions like 1993-94 or 1998-99, it's tough to register an "A/B+" type winter if December truly fails. Norms were meant to be broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 We've had 5 great Decembers in a row, so if this one's a downer I won't be too down about it. We've had some crappy Feb and Marches the last few years, so maybe we'll swing it around the other way this year. After the GHD storm we were essentially done with winter last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Norms were meant to be broken True. But in the mean time I'm sitting here grinding my teeth waiting for SNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Tough thing about December is that it's a core winter month and it is integral to the success (or lack thereof) of the winter as a whole. You can salvage a decent winter after a sucky December but aside from a few exceptions like 1993-94 or 1998-99, it's tough to register an "A/B+" type winter if December truly fails. Or on the flip side, you have a 2000-01 type winter. Great December, awful rest of the winter...well at least for a lot of us. Despite the awesome December that season, that winter is only a C+ at best for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Or on the flip side, you have a 2000-01 type winter. Great December, awful rest of the winter...well at least for a lot of us. Despite the awesome December that season, that winter is only a C+ at best for me. True. I guess my point was that a lot of us made it through a snowless November with all our marbles intact because we realized that November is an expendable month as far as snow goes. If we get it fine, but it's a luxury that won't effect the quality of the winter as a whole. With December we don't have that luxury. A December like the one in 2006 completely derailed what would have otherwise been a fairly decent winter. And you can find examples for the other "core" winter months. I'm just explaining the obvious in a convaluted way. 1997-98 here was a radical outlier to this rule though. DJF sucked but we still almost managed to pull out an average winter due to Nov and Mar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 True. I guess my point was that a lot of us made it through a snowless November with all our marbles intact because we realized that November is an expendable month as far as snow goes. If we get it fine, but it's a luxury that won't effect the quality of the winter as a whole. With December we don't have that luxury. A December like the one in 2006 completely derailed what would have otherwise been a fairly decent winter. And you can find examples for the other "core" winter months. I'm just explaining the obvious in a convaluted way. 1997-98 here was a radical outlier to this rule though. DJF sucked but we still almost managed to pull out an average winter due to Nov and Mar. I got you, I was just playing devil's advocate I guess. I can't say that I'm enthused about the prospects for this December for MBY at the moment. Hopefully I'm wrong about that or Jan-Mar gets better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 12z op GFS shows a pretty good storm around the 16th-17th. Pretty much crickets before that. Obviously that can change pretty quickly though. too bad it was 3 days away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This thread is depressing to read. My goodness did a few of you guys forget to take your happy pills? As ****ty as the models have been I think its a real safe bet to not look past 72 hrs. December will be fine so will JFM. These La Nina winters seem to be back end loaded anyways. Look at last year as a prime example and as active of a pattern we have had as of late I don't think its just going to shut off. Hoping a few good Clippers will lay a little snow down for Christmas. Who knows in 10+ days we might be tracking a sick storm or Blizzard for the lakes..you just never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This thread is depressing to read. My goodness did a few of you guys forget to take your happy pills? As ****ty as the models have been I think its a real safe bet to not look past 72 hrs. December will be fine so will JFM. These La Nina winters seem to be back end loaded anyways. Look at last year as a prime example and as active of a pattern we have had as of late I don't think its just going to shut off. Hoping a few good Clippers will lay a little snow down for Christmas. Who knows in 10+ days we might be tracking a sick storm or Blizzard for the lakes..you just never know. Totally agree with you.. I've yet to see a dusting to this point and I am still as pumped as I can be for winter and the next few months!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol, who isn't excited for winter? Regardless, sometimes you have to face reality that the pattern isn't that great for the medium range...which this one doesn't look to be through mid-December. But no one is depressed and no one with a brain is canceling winter. That's dumb IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Overcast and chilly here today. Sitting right at freezing currently. We peaked at 52 shortly after midnight, and have slowly cooled ever since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol, who isn't excited for winter? Regardless, sometimes you have to face reality that the pattern isn't that great for the medium range...which this one doesn't look to be through mid-December. But no one is depressed and no one with a brain is canceling winter. That's dumb IMO. Unfortunately it happens allot more than it should. In times of desperation people put the emotions over common sense and reality. Its human nature. The pattern looks fine IMO..yea it could use some tweaking but given the prospect of a looming arctic intrusion LES just might come alive and give a majority of the region something to talk about. Might even be able to squeak out a clipper or 2. We shall see...Still 4 more months of snow season..maybe 5 for some areas in the northern lakes. No season can ever just be "canceled" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Or on the flip side, you have a 2000-01 type winter. Great December, awful rest of the winter...well at least for a lot of us. Despite the awesome December that season, that winter is only a C+ at best for me. True. 2000-01 was just as dull after New Years as was 2005-06, the only thing that made 2000-01 much better was that the deep snowcover of December stuck around until nearly mid-Feb. Action wise, it was colder but just as sucky as 2005-06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Unfortunately it happens allot more than it should. In times of desperation people put the emotions over common sense and reality. Its human nature. The pattern looks fine IMO..yea it could use some tweaking but given the prospect of a looming arctic intrusion LES just might come alive and give a majority of the region something to talk about. Might even be able to squeak out a clipper or 2. We shall see...Still 4 more months of snow season..maybe 5 for some areas in the northern lakes. No season can ever just be "canceled" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Unfortunately it happens allot more than it should. In times of desperation people put the emotions over common sense and reality. Its human nature. The pattern looks fine IMO..yea it could use some tweaking but given the prospect of a looming arctic intrusion LES just might come alive and give a majority of the region something to talk about. Might even be able to squeak out a clipper or 2. We shall see...Still 4 more months of snow season..maybe 5 for some areas in the northern lakes. No season can ever just be "canceled" Wow...couldnt have said it better myself. We are ALL pining for snow and it SUCKS that its not settled in yet. But its December 4th, it shouldnt be set in yet. No winter, I repeat, NO winter will be good from start to finish. Even our winters that most live on in lore are not active from start to finish, its an unrealistic expectation. Ive had one day of white lawn (still could see the grass pickers) and it sucks to see green grass and bare trees (id actually rather it be brown grass and bare trees lol)...but winter is coming. It may not be as great as last year, it may be delayed til January or it may start later this week (as you said models suck past 72 hrs)...but winter IS coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 4, 2011 Author Share Posted December 4, 2011 Unfortunately it happens allot more than it should. In times of desperation people put the emotions over common sense and reality. Its human nature. The pattern looks fine IMO..yea it could use some tweaking but given the prospect of a looming arctic intrusion LES just might come alive and give a majority of the region something to talk about. Might even be able to squeak out a clipper or 2. We shall see...Still 4 more months of snow season..maybe 5 for some areas in the northern lakes. No season can ever just be "canceled" This is probably one of the worst posts in this thread to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 lol, who isn't excited for winter? Regardless, sometimes you have to face reality that the pattern isn't that great for the medium range...which this one doesn't look to be through mid-December. But no one is depressed and no one with a brain is canceling winter. That's dumb IMO. The good thing about this time of year is that you can sneak in an event even in a bad pattern overall. Averages are going down, many in this forum don't need much below average temps to be cold enough for snow. But as far as staying power, doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This is probably one of the worst posts in this thread to date. I don't even know what precipitated his diatribe. I checked the last 3 pages of this thread. Nobody is cancelling winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 The good thing about this time of year is that you can sneak in an event even in a bad pattern overall. Averages are going down, many in this forum don't need much below average temps to be cold enough for snow. But as far as staying power, doesn't look good. Reality isn't fun sometimes. Alas, my initial intent was saying that I didn't like the prospects for MBY in the near future...which obviously was overlooked by some. Didn't mean MI. Didn't mean WI. This place is impossible sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Interesting discussion ongoing in the main forum about the extremely +AO regime we're in and what it could mean in the future. Basically the thought is that it could allow for an extreme buildup of Arctic air up north that could flood southward with an intense/record type cold outbreak at some point especially if the AO flips negative. That may be weeks down the road though. Interesting thought. Is this what happened in 1984-85? December 1984 was extremely mild and relatively snowless, at least in Chicago (inlcuding temps in the 60s in late December)...but then winter unleashed its fury from Jan 1-Feb 15. This includes the all-time record low of -27 on 1/20/1985. I'll look up the records in more detail...but I believe Chicago had about 30-35" of snow in that 6-week period. Not sure if the overall pattern was similar in 1984-85 vs. now...but something worth discussing while things are so boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Interesting thought. Is this what happened in 1984-85? December 1984 was extremely mild and relatively snowless, at least in Chicago (inlcuding temps in the 60s in late December)...but then winter unleashed its fury from Jan 1-Feb 15. This includes the all-time record low of -27 on 1/20/1985. I'll look up the records in more detail...but I believe Chicago had about 30-35" of snow in that 6-week period. Not sure if the overall pattern was similar in 1984-85 vs. now...but something worth discussing while things are so boring. The AO went very positive in December 1984, though not as high as what we have now. Current readings are almost off the charts...in fact, today's number is the second highest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 This is probably one of the worst posts in this thread to date. Ya he really just needs to stop talking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Unfortunately it happens allot more than it should. In times of desperation people put the emotions over common sense and reality. Its human nature. The pattern looks fine IMO..yea it could use some tweaking but given the prospect of a looming arctic intrusion LES just might come alive and give a majority of the region something to talk about. Might even be able to squeak out a clipper or 2. We shall see...Still 4 more months of snow season..maybe 5 for some areas in the northern lakes. No season can ever just be "canceled" Times of desperation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 4, 2011 Share Posted December 4, 2011 Check how awesome this is... Barrow, Ak Currently 0 degrees, Heavy Snow/Blizzard ENE 39mph 50 mph gusts. Pressure 29.28 falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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