Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 1.5 inches of rain starting tomorrow night into Wednesday, highs are forecasted in the low 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Season snow totals so far a whopping 0.02 inches of snow...absolutely dismal. Maybe this year will be a short, but hard hitting winter! 0.02"? Man you guys are exact in Chambana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Larry Cosgrove throwing a bone. Pattern change ahead. The weekend storm is very important for many reasons. If this feature turns into a strong cyclone as I think it might, colder air will be pulled southward through the Great Plains. On the idea that a cAk vortex forms as the low enters S ON and QC, then a veritable pattern change could occur where colder values have a grip on the U.S. to the right of the Continental Divide. With a huge stratospheric warming event forecast across Arctic Canada and the ever-vigorous southern branch jet stream supplying moisture and energy, Texas and the Gulf Coast could get stuck in a frequently wet and cold alignment during the last week of December. Keep your eyes on the weekend. Because a minor storm could very well translate to a milder winter outlook for many. Then again, if the low pressure area is as intense as I think it may be, a while new world of weather awaits us, beginning with the holidays! http://www.examiner....tober-24-2011-1 This sounds more like wishful thinking than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 0.02"? Man you guys are exact in Chambana. Hahah, well this year is off to a abysmal, dreadful, painstakingly, nightmare of a start. This winter is off to a worse start, than Ron zooks fighting illini last 6 football games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I just don't see any potential with any of these split flow day 8-10 storms the guidance continually tries to blow up. This has more or less been going on for two months now, and there seems to be little forecast change in the AO any time soon. Every storm threat with a cutoff southern stream anomaly has ended up being significantly suppressed with generally quite a bit of northern stream interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 This sounds more like wishful thinking than reality. Agreed. Reality is it's going to be a long road to back to "consistent" winter. Hopefully there's a fluke in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Agreed. Reality is it's going to be a long road to back to "consistent" winter. Hopefully there's a fluke in the meantime. Personally I don't know much about LC, but it doesn't seem like a very accurate representation, not to mention we have seen multiple shallow "cold air" intrusions into the plains this fall/winter, but they have not been associated with any real arctic intrusions associated with the PV. I agree, a fluke in the pattern would be nice. I do vividly remember GHD and how that one snuck in after a relative lull in the pattern. Weird things can happen...right now I am back into full pessimistic mode until there is reason to believe a legit pattern change is occurring, especially with the way the guidance has handled the strength of the +AO the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Personally I don't know much about LC, but it doesn't seem like a very accurate representation, not to mention we have seen multiple shallow "cold air" intrusions into the plains this fall/winter, but they have not been associated with any real arctic intrusions associated with the PV. I agree, a fluke in the pattern would be nice. I do vividly remember GHD and how that one snuck in after a relative lull in the pattern. Weird things can happen...right now I am back into full pessimistic mode until there is reason to believe a legit pattern change is occurring. I can't verify LC's accuracy to an exact degree, but I think he's had his fair share of hit and misses in the past. Judging from what I see and read, I concur with you that he's probably jumping the gun. But he's been a board staple (or talking point) going back many years... Your pessimism is warranted right now...no reason to be optimistic in light of the facts. Hopefully there's some changes as head into January. Until then, hope for a fluke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 LC like stated before has I guess what some would call a good track record. Yea the +AO on steroids isnt helping the prospects of sustained arctic air or a real winter. Still think this pattern will snap fast. I think we all have seen it before. It's just funny how some mets see a return to winter while others like Gaylord wfo are super pessimistic. Still way to early to call assumptions on future months... Brings up another question..yea we know the teleconections are poop and tell the story but what did most of us miss with our winter outlooks. A important piece to the puzzle I guess was overlooked. Anyone with a good skill on this wish to further elaborate or simply put it to rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 LC like stated before has I guess what some would call a good track record. Yea the +AO on steroids isnt helping the prospects of sustained arctic air or a real winter. Still think this pattern will snap fast. I think we all have seen it before. It's just funny how some mets see a return to winter while others like Gaylord wfo are super pessimistic. Still way to early to call assumptions on future months... Brings up another question..yea we know the teleconections are poop and tell the story but what did most of us miss with our winter outlooks. A important piece to the puzzle I guess was overlooked. Anyone with a good skill on this wish to further elaborate or simply put it to rest. I could see APX being pessimistic just because the bar is relatively high for their winter standards compared to most other areas. One decent snow storm followed by cold air can equal a return to winter for most locales, but for Northern Michigan, they are looking for a pattern that will result in repeated dumpings of snow 2-3x per week both synoptic and LES. I also wonder how the winter outlooks, particularly the December outlooks made in October, were based on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Monday, December 12th: Hi: 45F Lo: 27F Overall Sky Conditions: Mostly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 11MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Still torching at 40F in Bow's backyard; he might need the fan or air conditioner tonight, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 0z Euro still showing the snow event next tuesday from TX up to northern IL but again, it weakens as it gets northeast. Parts of KS look like they get dumped on pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Took the dog for a walk just now and only needed a fleece...weird. In about 9 days the days will start getting longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Took the dog for a walk just now and only needed a fleece...weird. In about 9 days the days will start getting longer. Yup, and sunset has already gotten later by a minute. That'll be something if we get past the shortest day without a dusting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 0z Euro still showing the snow event next tuesday from TX up to northern IL but again, it weakens as it gets northeast. Parts of KS look like they get dumped on pretty good. meh, looks like crap, until we get fundamental pattern shift we're not seeing anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The days are dreadfully short. Always good to get past this time of year. I really do appreciate the longer days. Stupid Earth orbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 The days are dreadfully short. Always good to get past this time of year. I really do appreciate the longer days. Stupid Earth orbit. At least northern hemisphere winter occurs during perigee, we get 1-2% more sunlight than the southern hemisphere winter which occurs during apogee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GFS 12Z in line with the EURO now. With Snowfall across the Lower GL's 20-22nd. Sloppy 2-7 inches??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GFS 12Z in line with the EURO now. With Snowfall across the Lower GL's 20-22nd. Sloppy 2-7 inches??? I think it's fairly warm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I think it's fairly warm.... uggg your probably right. could be a Rain to Snow event. with a whopping 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 GFS 12Z in line with the EURO now. With Snowfall across the Lower GL's 20-22nd. Sloppy 2-7 inches??? Yeah. Actually surprised me a bit to see the GFS fold like that. Anyway, verbatim not an ideal setup or a massive storm, but shovellable at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Yeah. Actually surprised me a bit to see the GFS fold like that. Anyway, verbatim not an ideal setup or a massive storm, but shovellable at least. At least its something in the oven. I take a 2-3" event just in time for xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 What a strung out piece of garbage the day 6+ system looks like. Gets the job done via the 12z GFS, but man it looks it a little questionable. Western Canada is void any real cold air and that honking 1024-ish high that comes down is laughable. Granted there's enough confluence in central and eastern Canada to block this thing and provide "cold enough" air...but I guess it's the best we got right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 What a strung out piece of garbage the day 6+ system looks like. Gets the job done via the 12z GFS, but man it looks it a little questionable. Western Canada is void any real cold air and that honking 1024-ish high that comes down is laughable. Granted there's enough confluence in central and eastern Canada to block this thing and provide "cold enough" air...but I guess it's the best we got right now. Yeah it looks like that if we can get something out of this it will be another thin band of snow on the far northwest edge. Definitely not a widespread event. Alek's right, it won't be until we see a fundamental pattern change beyond 10 days that we see a chance at a widespread snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Alek's right, it won't be until we see a fundamental pattern change beyond 10 days that we see a chance at a widespread snow. Been saying that myself for awhile, as others have too. Reality is we probably have to wait until January for the change to take place...if it does change, which I think it will. This is a good test for all of our patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 For the people that have not seen any snowfall as of yet, does frost count? LOL..Some places have accumulated more frost this year then snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 For the people that have not seen any snowfall as of yet, does frost count? LOL..Some places have accumulated more frost this year then snow.. i have at least 1" of frost this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 I'll take the 12Z GFS snow on D7. Torch lasted all night here, only 37° for a low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Been saying that myself for awhile, as others have too. Reality is we probably have to wait until January for the change to take place...if it does change, which I think it will. This is a good test for all of our patience. yep, no big secret. Sucks but i'm not totally melting down...you can't be above average every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 yep, no big secret. Sucks but i'm not totally melting down...you can't be above average every year. I plan on having zero meltdowns this winter. I mean if this one goes complete disaster, well the past 4 winters have been good...real good for some/a lot. There's a long history of crappy winters in between good runs...can't win 'em every year. But let's hope for the best in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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