AppsRunner Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Yeah it sure has been persistent for the last few days. Looks like the models generally agree on cutting off the southern vort for a few days before finally lifting out after 160hrs. The evolution of the upstream vort is gonna be key on how this all goes down. The Euro has done really well lately, so hopefully it's on to something with a less "torchy" ejection of the southern vort. Yeah, I'm not convinced that so much energy would be left behind... however it always seems like the progressive solution ends up working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Just a FYI, noticed that Skilling from WGN has their in house RPM model online. Some of you may have already known that. Goes out about 24hrs. http://www.chicagowe...r.com/maps/rpm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 MSP: Quote THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME OLD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE FRI/SAT PRODUCING SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY. BUT OVERALL...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU XMAS. Not sure I agree with the dry part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Feels like Late October outside. :::yawn::: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Made it to 44 here today. Started out with some sun, but the clouds rolled in and thickened. Looks like we could get close to an inch of rain between tomorrow night and Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 If only we could get those two waves to phase and kick out right away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I will admit the D7-9 system does have potential although I'm still not ready to bite on any potential snowstorm at least for my area YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 12z GFS = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 If only we could get those two waves to phase and kick out right away.. Yup. And that confluence south of James Bay would probably prevent a toasty warm solution. You can tell there's a lot of spread but there EURO ensembles seem to have something around 168-192 in the OV, just like the OP run. And just like the OP EURO, the mean, if anything, it's a little too far south for us. Nothing like the torch storm the GFS is advertising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I will admit the D7-9 system does have potential although I'm still not ready to bite on any potential snowstorm at least for my area YYZ. Wise move. Dec 2011 = disaster month still has massive odds over any kind of snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 12z GFS = Time for you to go towel shopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wise move. Dec 2011 = disaster month still has massive odds over any kind of snowstorm. haha im playing it safe though its nice to have the EURO south of us right now rather than having it like how the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 18z GFS still looking like shiat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Part of this afternoon's Long-Range Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Northern Indiana... SUN-MON...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP AS AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER SW CONUS UPPER LOW. ADVECTION TIMING/THERMAL FIELDS/AND HEIGHT FALL DEPTH INTO THE REGION IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAIN. HAVE OPTED FOR THE LOWER SIDE OF CONSENSUS BLEND...WHICH SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH A RAIN OR SNOW MENTION PREFERRED FOR NOW. EXPECT FURTHER ADJUSTMENT IN THIS PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 18z GFS still looking like shiat Fook the GFS. GGEM and EURO look ok. I'll ride that like a pony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Fook the GFS. GGEM and EURO look ok. I'll ride that like a pony. btw...Snowstorms, if you read the above post and wonder why it contradicts the PM I sent you, it's just me being facetiously positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Fook the GFS. GGEM and EURO look ok. I'll ride that like a pony. Exactly my point. It's good to have them south of us right now than NW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 That writeup by Gaylord says it best. Very grim winter. What's it going to take to get rid of la Nina and el Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 That writeup by Gaylord says it best. Very grim winter. What's it going to take to get rid of la Nina and el Nino. Well it gets even better. NWS WFO Gaylord Mi evening AFD. 12/12 TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS REALLY...THERE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A MAJOR SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH THE BULK OF THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE FAR REACHES OF NORTHERN CANADA WHILE THE DOMINANT STORM TRACK REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THE FAIRLY STRONG AND WELL ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST (CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA) WILL BRING PRIMARILY LIQUID PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. COLDER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN BRING THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON RIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EXTENDED MODELS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME DECIDING THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WITH LATEST INFORMATION INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE A BIT MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WHICH IS STILL ON THE LEAN SIDE. WE MAY SEE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IN MILDER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN LIKELY TRACK BY TO OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK (PERSISTENCE) BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRIMARILY RAIN. THE MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POPS AND THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS WELL AS THE EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. http://forecast.weat...on=1&glossary=1 Always have respected and admired the Gaylord office for their winter pattern talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Sounds like the NOAA offices are getting tired of this boring weather pattern too. It sucks for people that make extra money from plowing snow! Had some freezing mist or fog this morning here. Had to break out the deicer spray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 We probably are looking at a mid January start to winter. By start of winter I mean highs below 30 and lows below 15 for weeks on end. Gaylord usually has highs below 25 and lows in the single digits with 12-24 inches base by the 1st of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Larry Cosgrove throwing a bone. Pattern change ahead. The weekend storm is very important for many reasons. If this feature turns into a strong cyclone as I think it might, colder air will be pulled southward through the Great Plains. On the idea that a cAk vortex forms as the low enters S ON and QC, then a veritable pattern change could occur where colder values have a grip on the U.S. to the right of the Continental Divide. With a huge stratospheric warming event forecast across Arctic Canada and the ever-vigorous southern branch jet stream supplying moisture and energy, Texas and the Gulf Coast could get stuck in a frequently wet and cold alignment during the last week of December. Keep your eyes on the weekend. Because a minor storm could very well translate to a milder winter outlook for many. Then again, if the low pressure area is as intense as I think it may be, a while new world of weather awaits us, beginning with the holidays! http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/houston-tx-and-vicinity-weather-forecast-monday-october-24-2011-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdavewi Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 We probably are looking at a mid January start to winter. By start of winter I mean highs below 30 and lows below 15 for weeks on end. Gaylord usually has highs below 25 and lows in the single digits with 12-24 inches base by the 1st of January. Yeah...to say this pattern is getting old is an understatement. Just 9.8" of snow for the season here in Gaylord, with not a hint of anything left, and highs well into the 40s both yesterday and again today. Nothing looks very promising the next 10 days either. Snowmobile/ski industry taking a big hit right now. The lack of snow has become something of a joke in the office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 Larry Cosgrove throwing a bone. Pattern change ahead. The weekend storm is very important for many reasons. If this feature turns into a strong cyclone as I think it might, colder air will be pulled southward through the Great Plains. On the idea that a cAk vortex forms as the low enters S ON and QC, then a veritable pattern change could occur where colder values have a grip on the U.S. to the right of the Continental Divide. With a huge stratospheric warming event forecast across Arctic Canada and the ever-vigorous southern branch jet stream supplying moisture and energy, Texas and the Gulf Coast could get stuck in a frequently wet and cold alignment during the last week of December. Keep your eyes on the weekend. Because a minor storm could very well translate to a milder winter outlook for many. Then again, if the low pressure area is as intense as I think it may be, a while new world of weather awaits us, beginning with the holidays! http://www.examiner....tober-24-2011-1 That's a good bone! Good to hear the possibility that this season might turn around. Believe it when I see it though! Looks like the GEM is onto some Great Lakes snow around D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 update for canada's current snowcover http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111207/white-christmas-unlikely-many-areas-dave-phillips-111205/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 There almost always seems to be a solid storm around the holidays for someone around these parts. And I look for it to be no different this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 update for canada's current snowcover http://www.ctv.ca/CT...hillips-111205/ "Ontario and Quebec should expect heavy snowfall after Jan. 1, though temperatures won't be extremely cold." These words are hollow, but strangely I still find comfort in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 18z gfs shows maybe a shot at some snow on Monday here... but who knows... This weeks rain looks very heavy...showing over an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 1.5 inches of rain starting tomorrow night into Wednesday, highs are forecasted in the low 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Season snow totals so far a whopping 0.02 inches of snow...absolutely dismal. Maybe this year will be a short, but hard hitting winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2011 Share Posted December 13, 2011 All day I kept thinking 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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