snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 By my count there have been 31 Ninas since 1900. Only 4 of them have resulted in Toronto receiving less than 3" of snow in December. Those years were 1928-29 (33.7"), 1950-51 (52.8"), 1998-99 (63.9"), 1999-00 (32.6"). Quite a spread there so it's tough to get predictive, but considering 50-51 was aided by an anomalously snowy November, and 98-99 was aided by an equally unlikely stretch of extreme winter weather in the first two weeks of January, I'd tend to think a sub 40" is the way to go this year. This is predicated on December being the unredeemable disaster it appears it is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 0z ECMWF has a a nice snow event from the Texas Panhandle up into S. Ontario on the 20-22nd. There's potential with this, and a lot of it. ECMWF leaves a tad bit of energy back out in the southern Plains with this system. We need a storm to pan out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 at least we'll see some action this week...even if it's warm and wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 6z GFS still looks very wet and very warm... Snow melted overnight. Temp rose up to 37F and have some light drizzle/rain. Seems like this time of year, rain kills snow faster then any amount of sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 OT... but I figured the Michigan crowd will enjoy this - http://www.notsopuremichigan.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Now the blizzard of '78, THAT was a changeover event. From rain and upper 30s to heavy snow and temps plummeting to the single digits in hours. You know whats REALLY funny though? The official total on Jan 26/27, 1978 was only 8.2" at DTW. The snow depth post storm was 15", and it was certainly a true blizzard, but not even 9" of snowfall officially (there were a few inches of snow on Jan 25th before the storm hit actually, so the 3-day total was 10.1"). Its funny because the 1978 storm lives on in SUCH lore in this area, yet for Detroit officially, it doesnt even make the top 40 largest snowstorms list! Just goes to show you there is a lot more to a storm than just total snowfall amount. MiSnFr, I agree 100%. Snowfall total is only "part of the picture" for a good winter storm. Type of snow, and/or Intensity & visibility (like our recent 30Nov storm here) can make up for a lack of deep accumulations as far as true impact is concerned. Most of our historic blizzards at this latitude and region have started with bare ground/change-over scenarios. What helped The Great One of '78 is that most (if not all) sites started with a solid snow pack of 4-12" (and associated piles and old drifts) on the ground. This had the effect of "jump starting" the storm to crippling status shortly after bliz conditions commenced. The net effect was as if the storm had been going for hours already and roads were quickly made impassible to 2WD vehicles (if you even had visibility to drive anywhere in an open area). So, for places like KIND for example, an accumulaton of 15.5" was more like a raging 36 hour storm of over 20" because of the existing snowpack when the storm and winds set in. Especially in the more farm country oriented states of IN & OH, it was just "lights out" bad in a matter of hours after change-over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radionicist Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 So, for places like KIND for example, an accumulaton of 15.5" was more like a raging 36 hour storm of over 20" because of the existing snowpack when the storm and winds set in. Especially in the more farm country oriented states of IN & OH, it was just "lights out" bad in a matter of hours after change-over. Right on the nose! We went from rainy mid-40s to howling blizzard in twelve hours in my part of NW Ohio. The snow drifts were high enough to climb from the ground to the top of a ranch house without a ladder. That was fun then - not so sure I'd like to see it again, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 OT... but I figured the Michigan crowd will enjoy this - http://www.notsopuremichigan.com/ That video about Wisconsin and Ohio is about as priceless as it can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Muck Fichigan. Anyways, the forecasted freezing rain for parts of WI this morning ended up just being rain. Next chance at wintry precip is some backend flurries Thursday. GFS is freakishly warm, maybe no accumulating snow this December if things keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 OT... but I figured the Michigan crowd will enjoy this - http://www.notsopuremichigan.com/ Sorry for the OT response for all the 'serious posters' I love that site; they are awesome! The Detroit Tigers bit about Inge is one of the best!!! Not from them but Millenball is great: http://www.prideofdetroit.com/2011/10/13/2487176/millenball-movie-video Back to the weather: unfortunately nothing new!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 MiSnFr, I agree 100%. Snowfall total is only "part of the picture" for a good winter storm. Type of snow, and/or Intensity & visibility (like our recent 30Nov storm here) can make up for a lack of deep accumulations as far as true impact is concerned. Most of our historic blizzards at this latitude and region have started with bare ground/change-over scenarios. What helped The Great One of '78 is that most (if not all) sites started with a solid snow pack of 4-12" (and associated piles and old drifts) on the ground. This had the effect of "jump starting" the storm to crippling status shortly after bliz conditions commenced. The net effect was as if the storm had been going for hours already and roads were quickly made impassible to 2WD vehicles (if you even had visibility to drive anywhere in an open area). So, for places like KIND for example, an accumulaton of 15.5" was more like a raging 36 hour storm of over 20" because of the existing snowpack when the storm and winds set in. Especially in the more farm country oriented states of IN & OH, it was just "lights out" bad in a matter of hours after change-over. That is why climo data only says so much. As example take September 1986 and September 2008 well even September 2011. All were extremely wet months in southern MI. I have lived through them all. I would repeat 1986 a million times more then the others. 1986 the t-storms were just incredible. 2008 was interesting but mostly heavy rain from tropical remnants (not from t-storms). 2011 was OK but nothing close to 1986. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wisconsin will invade Michigan at some point. Enslave the men and breed the women. Still raining here. I doubt we have any more snow this December. Tropical will probably be mowing his lawn on Christmas Eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wisconsin will invade Michigan at some point. Enslave the men and breed the women. Still raining here. I doubt we have any more snow this December. Tropical will probably be mowing his lawn on Christmas Eve. Lol. Highly disturbing yet expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS continues to be vomit inducing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS continues to be vomit inducing. disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 12z looks the same...warm and wet for December... Almost all the snow is gone from the rain today. Ground will probably soften back up again. Trees will probably leaf out in Saukville. Wonder if this will be the year without a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Heh... http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/a-stormy-week-before-christmas-1/58851 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 New GEM cuts off the vort around 100hrs, much like the GFS, but when it finally ejects (60hrs later) it's further south/less warm. Looks a little more similar to the Euro from last night. Hopefully this is the case as the GFS runs are very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 LAF torching...45º at 1PM. 50º+ not out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 LAF torching...45º at 1PM. 50º+ not out of reach. Feels good outside today.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 12z EURO shows there may be a light at the end of the tunnel?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Wow at the persistence of this pattern. It has to buckle and it will. Thinking it will be like someone flipping a switch and we settle into some serious cold air. It has to happen according to Climo. This reminds me of May and early June all over again..Cool and rainy then right into a Death Ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 12z EURO shows there may be a light at the end of the tunnel?? It actually looks suppressed (relatively) with the D7-9 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 12z looks the same...warm and wet for December... Almost all the snow is gone from the rain today. Ground will probably soften back up again. Trees will probably leaf out in Saukville. Wonder if this will be the year without a winter? I saw some buds on trees today. Uh oh. We're about to get into the 40s for the 2nd day in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman99 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 LOL, euro gives a st louis a nice big winter storm next week Believe it when I see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 GFS actually shows a storm in the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 That Day 7-9 storm has been on my radar for a while. Ensembles are all over the place, but the ECMWF/GFS are showing a halfway decent potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Odds of a brown Christmas are increasing for many. forgot this part: MSP: THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME OLD SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE FRI/SAT PRODUCING SOME FLURRY ACTIVITY. BUT OVERALL...THE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THRU XMAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Odds of a brown Christmas are increasing for many. Gaylord Mi WFO agrees with you. WHITE CHRISTMAS: IT`S NOT LOOKING GOOD IF THIS FCSTR IS READING THE SIGNALS CORRECTLY. CANADIAN ENSEMBLE 10 DAY MEAN TEMP ANOMALY IS NEARING +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS WARMTH AND HAS BEEN INCREASING THE PAST 3 RUNS. NAEFS 8-14 DAY TEMPS ANOMALIES HAVE AN 85% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE NAO HAS BEEN POSITIVE /FAVORING RIDGING AND +HGT ANOMALIES OVER THE ERN USA/ AND NO CHANGE IS FCST...FAVORING A STORM TRACK W OF THE GTLKS AND SUPPORTING IDEA OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUING. CHECK OUT THE CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY FCSTS FOR MORE CONFIRMATION. PLEASE SEE WEB STORY ON LACK OF SNOW...POSTED ON OUR WEBSITE UNDER TOP NEWS OF THE DAY. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=APX&issuedby=APX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 That Day 7-9 storm has been on my radar for a while. Ensembles are all over the place, but the ECMWF/GFS are showing a halfway decent potential. Yeah it sure has been persistent for the last few days. Looks like the models generally agree on cutting off the southern vort for a few days before finally lifting out after 160hrs. The evolution of the upstream vort is gonna be key on how this all goes down. The Euro has done really well lately, so hopefully it's on to something with a less "torchy" ejection of the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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