Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Anyone know how Lake Michigan's temps are faring? Close to average by now? I know they were warmer during most of the fall due to the warm summer, but you would hope the last week or two of at least near normal temps for early December cooled them off to the point they won't make a big difference in precip type except for those right along the lake. Here's a good link too: http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=m&ext=swt&type=N&hr=00 I would say the lake is running within 5 degrees above normal. There's some upper 30s showing up along the IL shoreline now and Green Bay is chilled off quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah, based on the map you displayed it looks like sections of the near-shore waters are nearly down to 40F now, which is a pretty good dip from 46. Obviously Bowme and Downtown will have p-type issues with storms that occur with temps in the 30-34F range. Still, considering we probably won't get our next sig snow until 7-10 days, by then hopefully it is not a major issue. Sorry to tell you this WisconsinWx but you can have precip issues near the lake any time during the winter, it doesn't matter if your in the middle of January as long as those temps are borderline you can get the rain/mix crap. I have seen it happen. It sucks but reality unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The GFS seems to be bowing to the Euro with regard to temperatures. Mind you, EC is forecasting below normal temps by next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Sorry to tell you this WisconsinWx but you can have precip issues near the lake any time during the winter, it doesn't matter if your in the middle of January as long as those temps are borderline you can get the rain/mix crap. I have seen it happen. It sucks but reality unfortunately. Needless to say it's possible, but you'll typically get the massive gradients from Milwaukee to the outlying areas primarily in November and December (see December blizzards in C Wisconsin the last two years, while MKE received mostly rain with backend snow). Can't remember many gradient storms due to the lake from January-early March, although I'm sure there have been a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Mix events along the lake usually occur from late October to the first week in December from my observation location at only 4.5 miles inland. From the 3rd week on in December through March; Lake Michigan at least, doesn't affect totals much. It can cut down on the snow ratios though. If there's lake enhancement in place, then that usually makes up for the lower snow ratios. Rather have the lake a couple degrees above normal, keeps the chance open for lake effect longer into the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Needless to say it's possible, but you'll typically get the massive gradients from Milwaukee to the outlying areas primarily in November and December (see December blizzards in C Wisconsin the last two years, while MKE received mostly rain with backend snow). Can't remember many gradient storms due to the lake from January-early March, although I'm sure there have been a couple. Mid feb 2006 rings a bell. maybe the storm cut farther west I dunno but it sucked. I think that a pro met in suckville had maps of 20"+ out and we ended up with a few inches of slop. Looking like we have a good chance for dec to end without an inch of accum. Couple more weeks of **** pattern and I'll be trolling for a 09/10 toronto winter and actually get the record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Mix events along the lake usually occur from late October to the first week in December from my observation location at only 4.5 miles inland. From the 3rd week on in December through March; Lake Michigan at least, doesn't affect totals much. It can cut down on the snow ratios though. If there's lake enhancement in place, then that usually makes up for the lower snow ratios. Rather have the lake a couple degrees above normal, keeps the chance open for lake effect longer into the winter! ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Mid feb 2006 rings a bell. maybe the storm cut farther west I dunno but it sucked. I think that a pro met in suckville had maps of 20"+ out and we ended up with a few inches of slop. Looking like we have a good chance for dec to end without an inch of accum. Couple more weeks of **** pattern and I'll be trolling for a 09/10 toronto winter and actually get the record. It's difficult to determine though whether situations like that were because of the lake or the low position. Since lakeside locations just north of Milwaukee didn't see very reduced accums, it probably wasn't as much a factor as it seemed to the naked eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Mid feb 2006 rings a bell. maybe the storm cut farther west I dunno but it sucked. I think that a pro met in suckville had maps of 20"+ out and we ended up with a few inches of slop. Looking like we have a good chance for dec to end without an inch of accum. Couple more weeks of **** pattern and I'll be trolling for a 09/10 toronto winter and actually get the record. Yeah, that has crossed my mind. Isn't the futility record 9 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It's difficult to determine though whether situations like that were because of the lake or the low position. Since lakeside locations just north of Milwaukee didn't see very reduced accums, it probably wasn't as much a factor as it seemed to the naked eye. Do you have a graphic for that storm showing totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Mid feb 2006 rings a bell. maybe the storm cut farther west I dunno but it sucked. I think that a pro met in suckville had maps of 20"+ out and we ended up with a few inches of slop. Looking like we have a good chance for dec to end without an inch of accum. Couple more weeks of **** pattern and I'll be trolling for a 09/10 toronto winter and actually get the record. I give you a week to 10 days before you have a complete winter cancel meltdown...partially fueled by withdrawal of alcohol/others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 You guys in Illinois can blame the slow start this season on me for jinxing it. I bought a new 4x4 truck during the summer to get through the winters better with. I remember joking at the time that we'll probably have a crappy winter now lol. Of course, it's still very early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Do you have a graphic for that storm showing totals? Right here: http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=021606_snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I know a good storm most of SE Wisconsin, NE Illinois missed out on because of the warm lake, was the Dec. 10-12, 2010 8-9, 2009. Up to 20" of snow fell out by Madison and the rest of south central Wisconsin. I remember the governor going ahead and closing all campuses down in the UW system, even though UWM and Parkside only had like 2" of slop on the grass! Got a snow day for a couple inches! Everyone came to campus thinking there was classes, but there was none all day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2011 Author Share Posted December 11, 2011 I know a good storm most of SE Wisconsin, NE Illinois missed out on because of the warm lake, was the Dec. 10-12, 2010. Up to 20" of snow fell out by Madison and the rest of south central Wisconsin. I remember the governor going ahead and closing all campuses down in the UW system, even though UWM and Parkside only had like 2" of slop on the grass! Got a snow day for a couple inches! Everyone came to campus thinking there was classes, but there was none all day! The lake was not the issue with that system, and Madison only had 8.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The lake was not the issue with that system, and Madison only had 8.9" Just remembered it was the one the December before that caused the rain along the lake. Corrected it in my post above^! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Obviously the lake helps with snow in MKE? You guys average a good 4-6inches more then I do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Just remembered it was the one the December before that caused the rain along the lake. Corrected it in my post above^! That's more like it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I give you a week to 10 days before you have a complete winter cancel meltdown...partially fueled by withdrawal of alcohol/others. I'm hoping to milk out 3 more months on the truck tires. screw winter. Bears fumble! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Right here: http://www.crh.noaa..../?n=021606_snow turrible map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I know a good storm most of SE Wisconsin, NE Illinois missed out on because of the warm lake, was the Dec. 10-12, 2010 8-9, 2009. Up to 20" of snow fell out by Madison and the rest of south central Wisconsin. I remember the governor going ahead and closing all campuses down in the UW system, even though UWM and Parkside only had like 2" of slop on the grass! Got a snow day for a couple inches! Everyone came to campus thinking there was classes, but there was none all day! Lucky ********! J/k. I had a speech final to give that day, and was hoping classes would be cancelled, but the NW trend kicked in and the low ended up cutting right through MKE. Turned a potential foot of snow/blizzard into (as you described) a few sloppy inches near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Obviously the lake helps with snow in MKE? You guys average a good 4-6inches more then I do... dessert once mid winter hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 dessert once mid winter hits. aka occasional fake effect snow or LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 That's more like it... Models had me creaming. dam nw trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 aka occasional fake effect snow or LE. was referring to la dessert in mid winter. Lake helps us more than hurts. just like detoilet and streamers dropping nickles and dimes to inflate their sorry winters. All our climates blow if you're snow lover in this region unless you get pure FES goodies as the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Down in a blaze of glory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Down in a blaze of glory. I swear these 8-14 day outlooks are only presented on this forum when they show a torch. Now I know why some feel everyone has turned into Tropical/Cromartie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 We're gonna get some tropical air Wednesday, 850 temps up to 9 °C and a whole lot of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 I swear these 8-14 day outlooks are only presented on this forum when they show a torch. Now I know why some feel everyone has turned into Tropical/Cromartie. Truth always hurts... Just eccept it and embrace it like your weenie that there is nothing good coming for a good long time. Not like our winters the past 2 yrs haven't sucked minus GHD. All in the pattern of doom coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Lucky ********! J/k. I had a speech final to give that day, and was hoping classes would be cancelled, but the NW trend kicked in and the low ended up cutting right through MKE. Turned a potential foot of snow/blizzard into (as you described) a few sloppy inches near the lake. Haha! The day off helped me catch up on a GIS project due the next day. So close with that one. There was like a mix at 34° most of the night. That's when I don't like the lake right next door! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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