michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah I noticed this with the ensembles compared to the OP GFS both 00z and 06z runs. The Euro looked to be in the middle between the 2 so who knows at this point. To be honest I'd rather not keep looking further down the road because more systems between you and these 'potentials' the more that could/will go wrong. I won't hold my breath for changeover events, 75% of the time at least for SEMI they end up being crap. Actually, lately changeover events havent been doing too bad. The last changeover event, November 29/30th, went about as forecast...but the previous one, March 5/6th, dropped much more snow than was forecast. Good point about potentials can and will go wrong. The models are absolutely HORRIBLE. What I personally look for in the longrange is simply if several models show a storm in a timeframe, makes me think the likelihood of a storm then is pretty good. I am content with them SHOWING a storm, and I know that more or less its time to put it on the backburner until its 48 hours out (and even then major busting can/will occur). I do not even pay attention to temps at all because they change drastically 4 times daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Yeah I noticed this with the ensembles compared to the OP GFS both 00z and 06z runs. The Euro looked to be in the middle between the 2 so who knows at this point. To be honest I'd rather not keep looking further down the road because more systems between you and these 'potentials' the more that could/will go wrong. I won't hold my breath for changeover events, 75% of the time at least for SEMI they end up being crap. Wasn't Detroit's all-time biggest snowstorm a changeover event? I'm not comparing this to that, but I'm just saying that they can have wicked potential. Also, biggest snowstorm I've personally been in, in New England, was also a changeover event... rain in the early morning turned into three feet of snow twenty-four hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The 00z EURO actually has something that looks alot like the Feb 5-6th 2008 storm. Even the 00z GGEM looks nice around the 19-20th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Wasn't Detroit's all-time biggest snowstorm a changeover event? I'm not comparing this to that, but I'm just saying that they can have wicked potential. Also, biggest snowstorm I've personally been in, in New England, was also a changeover event... rain in the early morning turned into three feet of snow twenty-four hours later. Believe it or not, Detroits biggest snowstorm on record was all snow, in April no less! Though I do agree, some changeover events can work out wonderfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Believe it or not, Detroits biggest snowstorm on record was all snow, in April no less! Though I do agree, some changeover events can work out wonderfully. Yeah, just looked that up, craziness! Hope to some day see a storm like the January blizzard of '78, with hurricane force winds and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why do all the Wisconsin posters hate winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 31F...should be the first time above freezing since Dec 4th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why do all the Wisconsin posters hate winter? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why do all the Wisconsin posters hate winter? There's only one that does. In other news, the 12z GFS looks craptastic. Wake me when it's January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why does Saukville, Tropical, PalmGuy69, and whatever other screen names (i think one time he pretended to be a girl) he's used over the years (for awhile I *think* he was using proxy servers) always make it seem like we all hate winter? I hate summer. I hate temps above 80F and I hate dewpoints above 65F. I love fall. I love spring. I like temps above 50F, but can easily deal with temps all the way down to 0F. I like winter sun and don't mind snowfall...i do hate when it gets crusty and black and the cloudy for days on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Through yesterday, LAF running a smidge above normal with temperatures for December (+0.8º). The next two weeks definitely look warm, so departures should increase. Looking back at my winter guess for LAF (below), I should have gone warmer and less snowy for Dec. Live and learn. At this point, I'd like a do over for January and February too...well January anyway. December 2011 Average temp: 33.5º (+3.0º) Precipitation: 4.50" (+1.99") Snowfall: 5.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 In other news, the 12z GFS looks craptastic. Wake me when it's January. big storm but no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 big storm but no cold air to work with. Yep. The OP GFS past day 6 is really just weenie fodder, but it's not pretty through the end of the run. Usually it's good for a couple fantasy snowstorms. This run not so much. Regardless, the pattern going forward isn't great. Hopefully we can sneak one in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 The good news is many of the models continue to show a pretty big storm around the 19-20th. For being so far out in time that's pretty consistent. Hopefully we can start to finagle a little more cold air into each successive batch of model runs lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Why do all the Wisconsin posters hate winter? Only Tropical hates winter, and he used to like it before he realized how much his palms take a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Someone mentioned the winter of 1993-94 a couple pages back. I checked the records for Cedar Rapids. December '93 was a bigtime torch for the first 2/3 of the month, but then we had some good cold near Christmas and that was followed by the coldest January of the last 28 years. This December may be quite lackluster, but the weather pattern can change drastically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 12z GGEM just cuts off the D7 storm over northern Mexico. Northern stream dominant. At least offers up a clipper around 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just for giggles and since we're 2 weeks away...what's everyone's prediction for their backyard on Christmas day? I'm in a bit of a doom and gloom mood today, so I'm going with a high of 48º and partly sunny. We'll revisit later to take out the trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just for giggles and since we're 2 weeks away...what's everyone's prediction for their backyard on Christmas day? I'm in a bit of a doom and gloom mood today, so I'm going with a high of 48º and partly sunny. We'll revisit later to take out the trash. Don't know about temps/conditions here. But it'll be green. That you can have in writing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just for giggles and since we're 2 weeks away...what's everyone's prediction for their backyard on Christmas day? I'm in a bit of a doom and gloom mood today, so I'm going with a high of 48º and partly sunny. We'll revisit later to take out the trash. I'm gonna go with cold and sunny, with highs in the 20s. More than likely we'll have bare ground. We've had several xmas in a row with deep snow cover so I guess I'm okay with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Don't know about temps/conditions here. But it'll be green. That you can have in writing. I got you down then, white Xmas for Toronto cancel. Unfortunately, not a bold call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 12z GGEM just cuts off the D7 storm over northern Mexico. Northern stream dominant. At least offers up a clipper around 162. Maybe if were to extropolate beyond 180 the cut off low would move towards us like the 00z EURO? Who knows the models are clueless right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Just for giggles and since we're 2 weeks away...what's everyone's prediction for their backyard on Christmas day? I'm in a bit of a doom and gloom mood today, so I'm going with a high of 48º and partly sunny. We'll revisit later to take out the trash. LIke SSC said most likely a green x-mas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 I'm gonna go with cold and sunny, with highs in the 20s. More than likely we'll have bare ground. We've had several xmas in a row with deep snow cover so I guess I'm okay with it. Chilly. But yeah, recent Christmas weeks have had snow cover here. Statistically for LAF, the odds are stacked against it. Probably time we had a green one. And like you, I say no big deal really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 LIke SSC said most likely a green x-mas Figuratively green. In reality, more like rich crap brown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Someone mentioned the winter of 1993-94 a couple pages back. I checked the records for Cedar Rapids. December '93 was a bigtime torch for the first 2/3 of the month, but then we had some good cold near Christmas and that was followed by the coldest January of the last 28 years. This December may be quite lackluster, but the weather pattern can change drastically. Yeah, that winter can serve as a reminder that winter can be backloaded, even with a relatively crappy December. I believe that February offered up four storms in the 6-14" range for S Wisconsin. I'm not sure how bad that Dec was, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 In the meantime while things are quiet and I'm bored to tears, my next project is going to be a look back at the winter of 1977-78. Coming soon to a sub-forum near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 Figuratively green. In reality, more like rich crap brown. Yes that's true. Nothing like waking up on x-mas morning only to see brown grass. For laughs the GFS and it's ensembles continue to show a system around x-mas give or take a day or so. Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 There's only one that does. In other news, the 12z GFS looks craptastic. Wake me when it's January. Why does Saukville, Tropical, PalmGuy69, and whatever other screen names (i think one time he pretended to be a girl) he's used over the years (for awhile I *think* he was using proxy servers) always make it seem like we all hate winter? I hate summer. I hate temps above 80F and I hate dewpoints above 65F. I love fall. I love spring. I like temps above 50F, but can easily deal with temps all the way down to 0F. I like winter sun and don't mind snowfall...i do hate when it gets crusty and black and the cloudy for days on end. It's probably exaggerated a bit, but it feels like most of the people that post here (excluding a couple) are on the winter cancel/i hate snow bandwagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2011 Share Posted December 11, 2011 It's probably exaggerated a bit, but it feels like most of the people that post here (excluding a couple) are on the winter cancel/i hate snow bandwagon. I don't think so, but I'll admit that I'm on the "I don't want cold if it's not going to snow anyway" bandwagon. I'd rather it be average or above average temps and dry than cold and devoid of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.