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December 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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When I look at this pattern I just want to crycry.gif

And to make matters worse, my Environment and Resource Management Teacher keeps telling me see what Global Warming is doing to our winters. I get so annoyed when she always says thataxesmiley.png

You should respond with "yeah, I do see....3 of the last 4 winters featured above normal snowfall"

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Mike Hamernik, a met for WGN here tweeted out this picture off the 12z GFS for the second possible system around the 20th lol first pink shading is 10"

Nice. There could be more snow to the east just beyond the 10 day outlook. At least there is snow showing up on the extended range!

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lol at Braun.

when asked if he has ever been tempted to take performance enhancing drugs back in 2009 "I would never do it because if I took steriods I'd hit 60 or 70 home runs"

Dude you were like 30 HR's short!!! With Pujols out of the NL, Fielder most likely leaving the Brewers, and Braun now out possibly 50 games for drug use....The Cubs got the NL Central!

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when asked if he has ever been tempted to take performance enhancing drugs back in 2009 "I would never do it because if I took steriods I'd hit 60 or 70 home runs"

Dude you were like 30 HR's short!!! With Pujols out of the NL, Fielder most likely leaving the Brewers, and Braun now out possibly 50 games for drug use....The Cubs got the NL Central!

lol

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There are certainly some signs that Mother Nature may save us from least snowiest December records around or just after Christmas. I am starting to get more hopeful about this than I was yesterday after looking at the way things are lining up.

I think the chances are there we could see a big snow even somewhere in the Midwest/Lakes region, at least better than 40%. Only concern is models capture this stuff for a while only to back off on it as we get closer to the timeframe. And of course, whoever misses out will just get bleh cold, dry, maybe a clipper or two and that might be it for a while.

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LC has some interesting discussion with today's newsletter.

Specifically the section labeled: EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST (Between Day 11 And Day 15)

thumbsupsmileyanim.gifcold.gif

The recent tendency for full-phase, massive bombogenesis cases in the northern Atlantic Ocean might be explained by this drift, which is essentially a case of a positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation gone insane. So much cold air in a cluster starts to "drip" over the pole into North America. In time breakaway pieces from the gyre drag the core circulation so far south that pure cAk values are able to occupy locations in the U.S. This type of event has happened twice in recent history: December 1976/January 1977 and December 1983. Once established, the dome can last as much as 45 days, destroying temperature records in the process. It is too early to suggest that this scenario might verify, but recent stratospheric temperature anomaly forecasts are turning very warm over Canada in the 11 - 15 day period. If so, southward displacement of the harshest of air mass may be enabled in the days just before Christmas.

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LC has some interesting discussion with today's newsletter.

Specifically the section labeled: EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST (Between Day 11 And Day 15)

Wow, does that ever sound like a December 1993 set up. Storm hit Ottawa/Montreal, NNE around december 19th that year and then wow. The first three weeks of that December were awful. Mild and rainy just like this year.

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Three runs in a row now the Euro has showed a solid snowstorm around the 20th. New 0z run has the best band from western KS-southwest IA but places from eastern IA-central/southern MI still get a few inches as the cold air moves with the wave/sfc low weakening as it heads east.

Just missed a better phase...

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when asked if he has ever been tempted to take performance enhancing drugs back in 2009 "I would never do it because if I took steriods I'd hit 60 or 70 home runs"

Dude you were like 30 HR's short!!! With Pujols out of the NL, Fielder most likely leaving the Brewers, and Braun now out possibly 50 games for drug use....The Cubs got the NL Central!

laugh.png

I still have a trace of snow here. That will be a distant memory after today as the torch begins. It looks like we will be back to near normal today, then the next 4 days will be above normal for Northern IN.

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GFS is a JOKE lol. It flops every single run tremendously, and I notice on here, when the long range shows cold, its "gfs bias, it always shows cold in this timeframe" and when it shows mild its "gfs torch, winter on hold even longer", implying when gfs says cold its wrong and when it shows mild its correct laugh.png

For the storm on the 14/15th, as much as I HATE rain, I want to see Detroit break the record for wettest year on record, we are SO close. Weve had way too much rain and snow this year to NOT break the record in my book. This never looked to be anything more than rain for here, but the storm on the 20th may be a different story wrt precip type.

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GEFS are more progressive and several show a moderate snow event in the Lakes around D7. I'm not holding my breath though. I'm thinking any break in this pattern might wait until after Christmas.

Yeah I noticed this with the ensembles compared to the OP GFS both 00z and 06z runs. The Euro looked to be in the middle between the 2 so who knows at this point. To be honest I'd rather not keep looking further down the road because more systems between you and these 'potentials' the more that could/will go wrong.

Its actually a decent phase over my area and gives IA/WI/MI a nice snow event onces it changeover happens but alot of rain for points east.

I won't hold my breath for changeover events, 75% of the time at least for SEMI they end up being crap.

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