BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I haven't seen anybody cancel winter, dec I have for the most but I'm trying to stay optimistic I'll see a few inches sometime the last 3rd of the month. Only thing more horrid than the models has been this horrid torched fall and first 3rd of dec. Big mudder fugging deal some needles were threaded and its snowed in a few places pretty much only to see it melt before they take their next dump. And by the end of next week most all of us will be below to much below avg for the first half of dec. The pattern sucks hairy balls here with no real end in sight unless somebody wants to point it out to me.. Are Canceling dec weenies any more annoying than the other end of the weenies using the models suck and any other excuses they can make up to try and believe this is going to be another one of those above avg snowfall months/winters of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I haven't seen anybody cancel winter, dec I have for the most but I'm trying to stay optimistic I'll see a few inches sometime the last 3rd of the month. Only thing more horrid than the models has been this horrid torched fall and first 3rd of dec. Big mudder fugging deal some needles were threaded and its snowed in a few places pretty much only to see it melt before they take their next dump. And by the end of next week most all of us will be below to much below avg for the first half of dec. The pattern sucks hairy balls here with no real end in sight unless somebody wants to point it out to me.. Are Canceling dec weenies any more annoying than the other end of the weenies using the models suck and any other excuses they can make up to try and believe this is going to be another one of those above avg snowfall months/winters of late? No the pattern sucks going forward, no reason to deny it. But as I've said before, it can/will still snow even in a crappy pattern...sustained winter remains elusive though. Past Christmas is probably too far to get an accurate idea, but it's fair to say a change at that point is precarious. GFS has the AO going on steroids again...NAO remains positive...PNA negative...EPO, forget about it. Just bad signs all around. Hopefully January can turn it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 i'm not saying they're going to be wrong...it's just interesting that most of them didn't mention it before the season started... Everyones definitions are different, my definition of a frontloaded winter would be a majority of snow before Jan 15th, backloaded would be majority after Jan 15th. Winters that are TRULY bad and snowless, you can bank on a march snowstorm or two, its literally in the statistics. Im not talking a winter with snowfall a few inches below normal. Im talking the likes of which are very rare, havent happened in decades for most locales on here, and the kind that many on here for some reason think 2011-12 will be. Of course, assumptions on Dec 9th that winter will truly be sucky are based on NO statistics, NO logic, NO anything other than a region of weenies being spoiled from recent winters hitting the panic button since theyre not buried in snow by mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 For once this 3 inches of fresh snow isn't gone by lunch time. A snow pack..lol. Tis the season of Nickle and Dime snow falls. Not a bad start. Wow you got 3"? Just under an inch here that has settled to half an inch. Northern burbs owned this snowfall. But of course our wonderful models had us high and dry with the best snow SOUTH OF TOLEDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm loling about all of this back-loaded, crappy pattern, etc. snow talk. It's 9 days into met winter and I'm at 6.6" and live in an area that only averages around 35". It's starting off great here. If this is a crappy pattern, I can't wait to see it when it gets good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Was just a little dumb sarcasm in the earlier post.. you and snowfreak wont give up the possibility of a bad winter until april and Joey is on the below normal wagon, but just how bad of a winter through jan 21st i was trying to gauge. So much for temps struggling to hit 20 today like was advertised earlier. Couldn't even do that during last yrs cold shot with snow on the ground - how the hell were we going to do it with green grass. If we were in some god-awful pattern in early February, then I would start admitting that this winter is sucking and pining for those late season snowstorms to hit hard. But no reason to do that in early December. Snow season has 90% or a little more to go. Is the possibility of horrible winter there? Absolutely. Is it probable? Absolutely NOT. Basically, Im thinking we see more of a true up and down Nina winter here. I thought we'd see that last winter and instead was blessed finally with a winter of nearly sustained snowcover from early Dec to mid-Mar. This year? Snowcover buffs like you and I (the only ones on the board to my knowledge) wont get their sustained snowcover but instead above normal snowfall will probably run across the board because the pattern overall will be so active. Feel free to bookmark this post and bump in April, if Im wrong I will certainly admit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm loling about all of this back-loaded, crappy pattern, etc. snow talk. It's 9 days into met winter and I'm at 6.6" and live in an area that only averages around 35". It's starting off great here. If this is a crappy pattern, I can't wait to see it when it gets good. Yeah I shouldn't complain, running above average in snowfall to date here too. But the past couple of Decembers have spoiled a lot us. Que sera sera. BTW, don't change the message under your avatar. It's spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I think the winter cancel stuff is a tad premature myself, but when a score of midwest climate stations are close to breaking records for snow lateness, whether it be first measurable/first inch, it's definitely noteworthy. Climo doesn't support a normal to above normal snowfall season here now. Only 14% of winters that have had below normal season to date snowfall by December 10th at CLE had above normal seasonal snowfalls. The odds are really against us and many other midwestern sites as supported by the stats others have posted. That's not to say that this winter can't be filled with backloaded awesomeness (re: see 2009/2010, which was still a below normal winter for us and a disaster for Ontario) But no matter how great the last half of winter is, it can't replace the fact that it barely snowed more than a dusting for most of the Midwest before late December (when the vast majority of people would actually like to have snow). I think you are the first person that actually posted stats to back up reasoning for a below average season for your location. So props for looking up stats. Havent done so for DTW, wouldnt matter anyway as they are above normal, but im wondering if lack of LES plays into it in CLE? Have to disagree with the last line, long ways to go before late December and wont know til it happens. Do agree though that a majority of the "regular public" like their snow for Christmas. I cant STAND that line you ALWAYS hear from winter-haters "id like it to snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas day then melt and get warm on the 26th". its very logical too, Dec 26th is only a month BEFORE the dead of winter lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 I'm loling about all of this back-loaded, crappy pattern, etc. snow talk. It's 9 days into met winter and I'm at 6.6" and live in an area that only averages around 35". It's starting off great here. If this is a crappy pattern, I can't wait to see it when it gets good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Lol.. Wouldn't be a December without some forum panic. The spreads on the AO.. lol. Although its 60/40 on a downward slide. We shall see as timing couldn't be better just around Christmas. Gotta hunch that something explosive might happen around or just after Christmas. This given how active the pattern looks and wondering if we get these solid and well defined baroclinic zones like we had last week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 This time last year I was at 5.0" Im now at 6.8" by Jan 12th I was 13" ended up with 76.5"..... just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 If we were in some god-awful pattern in early February, then I would start admitting that this winter is sucking and pining for those late season snowstorms to hit hard. But no reason to do that in early December. Snow season has 90% or a little more to go. Is the possibility of horrible winter there? Absolutely. Is it probable? Absolutely NOT. Basically, Im thinking we see more of a true up and down Nina winter here. I thought we'd see that last winter and instead was blessed finally with a winter of nearly sustained snowcover from early Dec to mid-Mar. This year? Snowcover buffs like you and I (the only ones on the board to my knowledge) wont get their sustained snowcover but instead above normal snowfall will probably run across the board because the pattern overall will be so active. Feel free to bookmark this post and bump in April, if Im wrong I will certainly admit it You've been steadfast on a bumpy snowcover yr along with an active pattern for a long time and I hope you're right on at least the active part and pretty much agree.. What weighs in the back of my mind and gut is a screw zone and if I had to pick that right now its MKE #1 and we'll have to fight for every snow inch and chance and in the end it's a lot of wasted hrs tracking storms that hit north and south.. I like the eastern lakes and basically where the haves are so far this early winter to have more fun than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 This pattern is crap. Pure and simple. I gather Bastardi is now talking about a Christmas period similar to Christmas 1970 in the northeast. Give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Record for today is -24F back in 1876... Looks like 40F+ by Sunday. I'll take it. Its COLD outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 You've been steadfast on a bumpy snowcover yr along with an active pattern for a long time and I hope you're right on at least the active part and pretty much agree.. What weighs in the back of my mind and gut is a screw zone and if I had to pick that right now its MKE #1 and we'll have to fight for every snow inch and chance and in the end it's a lot of wasted hrs tracking storms that hit north and south.. I like the eastern lakes and basically where the haves are so far this early winter to have more fun than not. I had that gut feeling since November as well. At the time it was because I figured by the time the cold air started to penetrate in December, the NAO would go moderately to extremely negative and we would go from Upper Midwest storms to East Coast/suppressed storms. Turns out that wasn't the case, but so far the action has been to our NW and SE. What's funny is how the summer seemed to have worked out similarly to how the last couple of months have. I figured the fact that N Illinois was extremely wet in the summer would bode well for storm tracks moving through that area, but I guess not so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Down to 13. Already the coldest temp of the season so far. Looks like the first single digits of the season by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 This pattern is crap. Pure and simple. I gather Bastardi is now talking about a Christmas period similar to Christmas 1970 in the northeast. Give me a break. simmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Blah December my ass... Don't go outside unless you have full arctic gear on. Chilly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 simmer Time to freak out! LOL 14º the low temp here as of 7AM. Feels like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Time to freak out! LOL 14º the low temp here as of 7AM. Feels like winter. Only got down to 20 here but by far the coldest it's been so far this winter. Eagerly awaiting your 98-99 thread Tim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 10 days into Met Winter. Hope that puts things into perspective for a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Only got down to 20 here but by far the coldest it's been so far this winter. Eagerly awaiting your 98-99 thread Tim! Yeah, I'm pretty excited about it. Looking back, it was an overrated "bad" winter...at least in my view. It could have been much much worse...and we've seen much much worse. I'll have it posted by no later than tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Yeah, I'm pretty excited about it. Looking back, it was an overrated "bad" winter...at least in my view. It could have been much much worse...and we've seen much much worse. I'll have it posted by no later than tomorrow. The lows were pretty low that year, but the highs were unforgettable. If I had to relive one of those three "off" Ninas back in the late 1990s, 98-99 would be my first choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 The lows were pretty low that year, but the highs were unforgettable. If I had to relive one of those three "off" Ninas back in the late 1990s, 98-99 would be my first choice. Very much agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 5F in LSE this morning. Cold, but could have been worse if we would have had more snow. Winter starts Dec 1st around these parts... Going to get a Christmas tree today. I see a couple nice ones in the park by my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 On second thought, my kids are being naughty so I cancelled Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 10 days into Met Winter. Hope that puts things into perspective for a few. And 12 days before the start of astronomical winter. Seriously though I DO hope a few large-area snowstorms (as opposed to the razor-thin snowbands) hits the midwest/lakes SOON to ease everybodys tension, because I REALLY do think the snowfall department will end up on the + side for most on here come April. Problem is, if its a winter with very little snow til mid-late Jan, then it starts to dump thereafter, the stress from early winter may have been so great that they wont enjoy it as much. BTW DTW dropped to 17F, previous coldest this season was 24F! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 And 12 days before the start of astronomical winter. Seriously though I DO hope a few large-area snowstorms (as opposed to the razor-thin snowbands) hits the midwest/lakes SOON to ease everybodys tension, because I REALLY do think the snowfall department will end up on the + side for most on here come April. Problem is, if its a winter with very little snow til mid-late Jan, then it starts to dump thereafter, the stress from early winter may have been so great that they wont enjoy it as much. BTW DTW dropped to 17F, previous coldest this season was 24F! Just go back in time to last year.. Either here or over to accucrap and one will see that December always causes some form of forum meltdown. This year is worse because the large urban areas like Chicago and Cleveland have been royalty ****ed as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Idea of a D7 wave has really faded on the last 3 runs of the GFS. Way too early to write the entire winter off, but for a lot of us this December is not going to work out well. Here's to the -AO flood of bitter cold in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2011 Share Posted December 10, 2011 Idea of a D7 wave has really faded on the last 3 runs of the GFS. Way too early to write the entire winter off, but for a lot of us this December is not going to work out well. Here's to the -AO flood of bitter cold in January. GFS 12z 252 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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