Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 the problem right now is that the NAO is too + around 1.5 we need it to drop even is just a bit, in december of 2007 it averaged around 0.5 or so......to get some coldish air in air and to help with the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 brutally boring weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 So the Euro and GFS now suggest there may be another good storm in a week. However, it's looking like all rain yet again for most of us. UGH! Mother Nature is having real trouble combining moisture and cold air around here so far this season. I about screamed when I saw the 12Z GFS...A low moving south of many of us, yet temps are in the upper 30s or warmer with RAIN!!! I can't believe how frustrating this weather pattern is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Can see the snow line finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 brutally boring weather horrific even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Up to 34 °F with full sun, very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 brutally boring weather Agree I about screamed when I saw the 12Z GFS...A low moving south of many of us, yet temps are in the upper 30s or warmer with RAIN!!! I can't believe how frustrating this weather pattern is. Agree horrific even. Agree.............. I guess I wont put away the golf clubs this winter. Winter or less then winter Im going to make the best of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yeah that 12Z GFS is nasty. Hopefully the AO and NAO will come down by next week -at least to neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 12z looks wet with that storm next week. Have to watch where that trends. Looks too warm even here for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 From NWS Chicago: The Slow Start to Winter 2011/2012 Continues... What a difference a year makes...literally! Winter 2011-2012 is certainly getting off to a lackluster start...temperatures so far this month have averaged nearly 6°F per day above normal in Chicago...and 15.4°F warmer than first week of December last year! In fact...so far this month our average low temperature has been 30°F while in comparison 4 out of the first 7 days of December 2010 didn’t even see high temperatures that warm. In fact...by this time last year we had already seen lows in the single digits. The coldest temperature we have seen so far this year in Chicago was 24°F back on Nov. 17! Going back through the 138 years of weather records in Chicago there have only been 4 winters that have failed to produce colder temperatures up this point in the year. The only 4 winters where we saw later dates for the first time reaching 23°F or colder in Chicago are: 1) Dec 31 1923 2) Dec 21 1998 3) Dec 14 1939 4) Dec 9 2001 The average first date for seeing a temperature at or below 23°F in Chicago is Nov. 17. By this time last year, Chicago had already seen 2 days with high temperatures colder than the coldest low temperature so far this year! In addition...if Chicago fails to get measurable snowfall tonight then all indications are that the threat of measurable snowfall will be very low through next Dec. 14...which would put the record latest measurable snowfall record for Chicago in very real jeopardy. The latest first measurable snowfall in Chicago was Dec. 16, 1965. In Rockford...the coldest temperature thus far this year has been 21°F back on Nov. 30 and again on Dec. 7. There has only been one other year in Rockford weather history that there hasn’t been a colder temperature yet up to this point in the year and that was back in 2001. In 2001 the first day with temperatures at or below 20°F in Rockford was December 9th. The average first day for seeing temperatures at or below 20°F in Rockford is November 13th...so we are running nearly a month late! The opening week of December in Rockford...like Chicago...has been abnormally mild with temperatures averaging 4.8°F above average. The first week of this December in Rockford is running 13.7°F warmer on average than the opening week of December 2010. In fact...by this time last year Rockford has already seen 2 days with high temperatures colder than the lowest low temperature so far this year! There is a change in the pattern taking place and the regions first shot of truly winter-like air will arrive by Friday...however all indications are this will be short lived with temperatures rebounding to above average by Sunday. The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting a high probability of temperatures averaging above normal from December 13-21...so current indications are that the overall pattern of this winter looks likely to continue for another week or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 yawwnnnnn is what I'm saying so far in the snow department... but it sure hasn't been boring in the rain department that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Cold shot looks a little slower than a few days ago so Saturday may be the better shot to keep highs in the 20's around here, although coldest air aloft moves out by Saturday afternoon so maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Cold shot looks a little slower than a few days ago so Saturday may be the better shot to keep highs in the 20's around here, although coldest air aloft moves out by Saturday afternoon so maybe not. It'll be close. Just because it's LAF though, I'll go 32º for the high. MEX showing a 48º for next Thursday. Something considering it's skewed towards climo at day 7. Torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 It'll be close. Just because it's LAF though, I'll go 32º for the high. MEX showing a 48º for next Thursday. Something considering it's skewed towards climo at day 7. Torch. Yeah looks like it's going to get ugly after this cold wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 If only it were December....... oopps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 35 here today. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 If only it were December....... oopps. I'd dig that low track...normally. Unfortunately, this doesn't look to be a normal mid-December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 brutally boring weather Hahaha you think your in a boring slump? Try from July-December and only 1.5 inches of precipitation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'm already kinda lukewarm with regards to LRFs. I've seen some pretty bad forecasting debacles in the past (01-02, 02-03). If this winter ends up being mild and relatively snowless, I'll be off them for good. 95% of 11-12 outlooks have put the Lakes in - temp departures and +/++ snowfall departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Hahaha you think your in a boring slump? Try from July-December and only 1.5 inches of precipitation! wow, that is ridiculously dry. I don't think that kind of dryness is possible east of the MS river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 I'm already kinda lukewarm with regards to LRFs. I've seen some pretty bad forecasting debacles in the past (01-02, 02-03). If this winter ends up being mild and relatively snowless, I'll be off them for good. 95% of 11-12 outlooks have put the Lakes in - temp departures and +/++ snowfall departures. I think some of the major media weather outlets just went with if last winter was cold and snowy and a Nina equals this winter being a Nina, thus more cold and snowy conditions for the MW/Lakes. I could be wrong on that though of course, just a thought. Thing is though, I've read quite a few outlooks on here that are very well reasoned with "deeper thought" put into their methodology. Alas, I think seasonal forecasting remains difficult to have complete accuracy...even if the science is sound. Too many variables that can go wrong. Of course we're assuming this winter goes bust-o-rama. Too soon to make that conclusion IMO...though clearly we're not off to the best of starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This winter is starting to remind me of December of 1998. All the winter weather was in January and March around here. I didn't record any measurable snowfall until 12/20 that winter - 1.1" for December. Then came the second largest snowstorm in Chicago history on New Years and three weeks of brutal cold and 40" of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Now the forecast low for Friday Night is 7 °F, brutal. The deep freeze is already moving in, it's a "warm" 27 °F now, but once the clouds move out we're gonna drop into the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Now the forecast low for Friday Night is 7 °F, brutal. The deep freeze is already moving in, it's a "warm" 27 °F now, but once the clouds move out we're gonna drop into the teens. Single digits with no snowcover= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 This winter is starting to remind me of December of 1998. All the winter weather was in January and March around here. I didn't record any measurable snowfall until 12/20 that winter - 1.1" for December. Then came the second largest snowstorm in Chicago history on New Years and three weeks of brutal cold and 40" of snow! Funny you mention it, as I'm working on a thread idea about the winter of 1998-99 right now. Fascinating winter of both extremes, warm and cold...snow and rain. I should have it up in the next day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 6 years ago tonight...the MDW +SN event http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=13450&source=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Oh gee, look at that, the 18z GFS goes back into the deepfreeze after a horrible 12z. Seriously guys, this sucky early-mid December pattern is just that, a sucky early-mid December patten. These jokes about golf clubs all winter and even the bracing for a crappy winter seems so premature/silly. I feel like a cheerleader always bringing optimism to the dark clouds of pessimism on here, but...I dont know how many times I can say it. I know a great deal about past winters for this region. Patterns like this mean absolutely NOTHING with regards to the winter (a season which astronomically is still nearly two weeks from BEGINNING). All it is, really, is a cruel joke by ma nature for those who have yet to see snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Now the forecast low for Friday Night is 7 °F, brutal. The deep freeze is already moving in, it's a "warm" 27 °F now, but once the clouds move out we're gonna drop into the teens. Brutal? Looks like a typical low this time of year on that side of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 9, 2011 Share Posted December 9, 2011 Interestingly, these temperatures swings and gradients are very good if one's a fan of big storms. I'm also liking how both the northern and southern stream are active. If we can get the STJ and the polar jet to phase just right then look out... I definitely see this as a winter with above normal snowfall, wild temp swings, and lots of storms. IF we get the true Nina temp swings we lacked last year, snowcover probably wont be as good as last winter, but other than that, its game on for the next 4 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 9, 2011 Author Share Posted December 9, 2011 Brutal? Looks like a typical low this time of year on that side of the lake. ...More than 10F below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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