cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Pretty chilly day here today. Made it to 32, but the winds made it feel colder than that. Bottomed out at 18 early this morning. Ties for the coldest so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 MKX is saying Madison hits 9 °F Saturday morning, that's whiskey cold. Good news is the GFS has us sunny through Sunday, so the cold won't be that miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 big time system on the 18z GFS at D7 but its mostly if not all rain, 997mb low to northwest IN. Then another big system D9/10 with much colder air to work with. Lets hope this is a sign of an active start to mid-late month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Euro ensembles of two weeks ago are going to end up nailing the mid-December pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Yet another beautiful seasonal day around Detroit. I wouldn't mind if every day this winter was like today. Temp was cold but not unbearable and the partly sunny skies made people smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Were due for a lack luster winter Up here we just had an abortion of a winter in 09-10, so it's not like ma nature should be looking to dish out some comeuppance on us. Nice thing about 98-99 or 00-01 was that my part of Lake seemed to suffer the least relative to everyone else. Forget what that feels like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Euro ensembles of two weeks ago are going to end up nailing the mid-December pattern. Interesting. So that begs the question, what do the Euro ensembles beyond that? Probably posted in here somewhere but don't remember seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting. So that begs the question, what do the Euro ensembles beyond that? Probably posted in here somewhere but don't remember seeing it. I get all my euro ensemble news second hand from the SNE subforum.You should check in there once in a while although it won't do you much good now as they're all preoccupied with something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Up here we just had an abortion of a winter in 09-10, so it's not like ma nature should be looking to dish out some comeuppance on us. Nice thing about 98-99 or 00-01 was that my part of Lake seemed to suffer the least relative to everyone else. Forget what that feels like. I dont think we'll see another 09-10 this year given all the storms tracking thru the Great lakes which is something I dont like but at least its stormy and not cold and boring haha. A slight negative NAO/AO would be great to funnel in some cold air across the region and a -EPO would be amazing. That storm between the 14th-20th seems interesting. Hopefully we can suppress those warm anomalies further south haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I get all my euro ensemble news second hand from the SNE subforum.You should check in there once in a while although it won't do you much good now as they're all preoccupied with something else Haha, thanks. I think I'll wait a few days to check in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Were for a lack luster winter We certainly are, but too much potential out there, I dont think this is the one. (Could be wrong, but I personally do not think so). Still way, way, WAY too early to even think that a not-so-great pattern in early or mid December foretells of a lackluster winter coming (or the other way around, a great pattern in December doesnt foretell a great winter). Many of our great winters dont get going til after New Years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I get all my euro ensemble news second hand from the SNE subforum.You should check in there once in a while although it won't do you much good now as they're all preoccupied with something else No thanks, Ill pass on the flooding rains that the majority of them are seeing, have had enough of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 Interesting. So that begs the question, what do the Euro ensembles beyond that? Probably posted in here somewhere but don't remember seeing it. I get all my euro ensemble news second hand from the SNE subforum.You should check in there once in a while although it won't do you much good now as they're all preoccupied with something else Preoccupied with their (mainly) rainstorm? But Coastal commented earlier about the ensembles...they seem not to be a disaster, but nothing great either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2011 Share Posted December 7, 2011 I dont think we'll see another 09-10 this year given all the storms tracking thru the Great lakes which is something I dont like but at least its stormy and not cold and boring haha. A slight negative NAO/AO would be great to funnel in some cold air across the region and a -EPO would be amazing. That storm between the 14th-20th seems interesting. Hopefully we can suppress those warm anomalies further south haha. Yeah, I'm not thinking we're in for a historically bad winter. Even if we had +ENSO with ridiculously strong blocking, it'd be hard to forecast a winter that bad twice in such a short period of time considering how anomalous it would be. But I do think we could be in for more of a dog fight this Nina compared to the last 3 (if you want to count 08-09 as a Nina). Good news is that we should have an active storm track through the lakes with -PNA/+NAO allowing the SE ridge to flex. I'll always take my chances with a warm/wet pattern vs. a cold/suppressed pattern. All you need is some transient blocking to temporarily hold some cold air in place to our NE and you can get some decent front-end thumps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Fine Josh and Tim. NNE. Happy? Still a storm that misses me to the east after one missed me to the west after one missed me to the east. As you can see, I'm not terribly happy about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Yeah, I'm not thinking we're in for a historically bad winter. Even if we had +ENSO with ridiculously strong blocking, it'd be hard to forecast a winter that bad twice in such a short period of time considering how anomalous it would be. But I do think we could be in for more of a dog fight this Nina compared to the last 3 (if you want to count 08-09 as a Nina). Good news is that we should have an active storm track through the lakes with -PNA/+NAO allowing the SE ridge to flex. I'll always take my chances with a warm/wet pattern vs. a cold/suppressed pattern. All you need is some transient blocking to temporarily hold some cold air in place to our NE and you can get some decent front-end thumps. We dont need a huge SE Ridge anomaly, a generally weak one would be wondrous and this combined with a slightly negative AO and -EPO would be golden for cold and snow across our region. I'm really liking, 49-50, 64-65 and 75-76 as decent comparable analogues. If the STJ can play in a few times when the MJO is favorable we can get a few Gulf Lows in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Fine Josh and Tim. NNE. Happy? Still a storm that misses me to the east after one missed me to the west after one missed me to the east. As you can see, I'm not terribly happy about this. I understand the frustration. My bad on stoking the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 In the short run, you could call them a disaster. Continue lack of blocking mixed with a weaker EPO and -PNA. Warmth gets underplayed as guidance struggles to properly organize the upper levels. But all it takes is one transient blocking pattern. Whether we get that or not in December, remains to be seen. You could also call today a disaster because it didn't snow here. Regardless, they've looked much worse recently. Of course we're far from settling into a consistent winter pattern...that I think everyone agrees with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 No doubt. December 1988 wasn't good. Boy, did it get worse in January. Hopefully that doesn't happen again lol. Hopefully this will be like December 75 with one post-Christmas storm, then a transition to colder pattern in January. I'd take a 3 week bonanza a la January 1999 and be happy. My expectations in MBY for this winter were never high to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 I'd take a 3 week bonanza a la January 1999 and be happy. My expectations in MBY for this winter were never high to begin with. I'd take a 3 week bonanza too or a month like December of 2000! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 big time system on the 18z GFS at D7 but its mostly if not all rain, 997mb low to northwest IN. Then another big system D9/10 with much colder air to work with. Lets hope this is a sign of an active start to mid-late month. Looks like the cold air does catch up to it after 177 hours. Hopefully there will be more abundant cold air next week for that system to tap into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 17F already. Of course the skies go clear after the sun sets. Going to be a cold jog tonite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 My annual's for 1999 talk of the Jan '99 & Blizzard>>>>>> http://www.crh.noaa....ate/1999dtw.php http://www.crh.noaa....ate/1999fnt.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 8, 2011 Author Share Posted December 8, 2011 Wednesday, December 7th: Hi: 34F Lo: 25F Overall Sky Conditions: Partly Cloudy Max Wind Gust: 24MPH Rainfall: 0.00" Snowfall: 0.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Interestingly, these temperatures swings and gradients are very good if one's a fan of big storms. I'm also liking how both the northern and southern stream are active. If we can get the STJ and the polar jet to phase just right then look out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Prediction date on when one of these "thread the needle"? I say December 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Prediction date on when one of these "thread the needle"? I say December 24th. Classic! Wheres the sugar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Prediction date on when one of these "thread the needle"? I say December 24th. If ever, lol. But the potential is there, espcially this year with the lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 So the Euro and GFS now suggest there may be another good storm in a week. However, it's looking like all rain yet again for most of us. UGH! Mother Nature is having real trouble combining moisture and cold air around here so far this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 8, 2011 Share Posted December 8, 2011 Another top shelf early winter day. Nice amount of sun and temps creeping slowly higher. Love it! More please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.