Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 the models change every 6 hours. Oh, and the very end of the long range is the FIRST day of winter. http://www.americanw...nterobs-thread/ Meh, I still say a ton of threats, sucky busts, and nice surprises will occur in the med-long range. Models have just been TOO bad. The other day the GFS had a thickness of 494 one run (sfc temps mid-teens) and the very next run it was 544 (sfc temps upper 30s) around day 14. Its ridiculous how bad it is in the long range, better off reading the farmers almanac. need a torched 15-20" season to set you straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Been spitting snow for a few hours here. Very light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 Getting in on some LER here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 some crazy shear from 850mb down to the sfc on the western side of the lake creating that convergent boundary. LE precip has made it all the way out here. from LOT ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TONIGHT IS THAT THE REGIONAL GEM DEVELOPS A WEAK MESO LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...DUMPING 4+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS RACINE/KENOSHA/LAKE AND EVEN MCHENRY COUNTIES TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE PREVIOUS RGEM RUNS SHOWED SIMILAR OUTCOMES... BUT MORE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA/COOK COUNTY AND NOWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE CURRENT RUN. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF TRENDS LEAN IN A HIGHER DIRECTION BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT IN THE SUB HALF IN RANGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 some crazy shear from 850mb down to the sfc on the western side of the lake creating that convergent boundary. LE precip has made it all the way out here. from LOT ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TONIGHT IS THAT THE REGIONAL GEM DEVELOPS A WEAK MESO LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...DUMPING 4+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS RACINE/KENOSHA/LAKE AND EVEN MCHENRY COUNTIES TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE PREVIOUS RGEM RUNS SHOWED SIMILAR OUTCOMES... BUT MORE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA/COOK COUNTY AND NOWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE CURRENT RUN. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF TRENDS LEAN IN A HIGHER DIRECTION BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT IN THE SUB HALF IN RANGE. Setup isn't great by any means although certainly good enough for lake precip with delta T's peaking around 16-17 and inversion heights into the 5k foot range. Could at least have some minor accums especially away from the shore. Areas near the shore may tend to stay mixed or at least warm enough to prevent much in the way of sticking but decently cool airmass so could be enough even there especially in any heavier bursts. That possible mesolow will need to be watched...we know how those can screw up a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Some thoughts from NIU weather.... So...if you're wondering when "the shoe will fall", the GFS says something significant might hit us around the 15th, but that's in model la-la land where everything is taken with a huge salt pile. Until then, however, just weak systems coming through here, while both coasts get hit with significant systems. It is interesting to also note that when we have never had a snowstorm by this time of the season, no winters have had above average snowfall in recorded history, which goes against my forecast, of course. Will it come true? Stay tuned...a few big snows can train wreck a lack of a snowy winter. In summary, look for near average temperatures and much below average rainfall and snowfall over the next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 It appears that our (LAF) next chance at some flakes is late Thu/Fri with the front. GFS and Euro kicking up a small amount of QPF. After that, we torch through day 10 (Sun and beyond). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Setup isn't great by any means although certainly good enough for lake precip with delta T's peaking around 16-17 and inversion heights into the 5k foot range. Could at least have some minor accums especially away from the shore. Areas near the shore may tend to stay mixed or at least warm enough to prevent much in the way of sticking but decently cool airmass so could be enough even there especially in any heavier bursts. That possible mesolow will need to be watched...we know how those can screw up a forecast. Ya would think a change to snow further inland where precip is once the BL cools later tonight. We had a few flakes mixing in with light rain about 30 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 LAF taking its rightful spot as the warmest temp in Indiana at 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 5, 2011 Author Share Posted December 5, 2011 FWIW...The latest HRRR develops a nice LE band tonight and targets SE. WI and NE. IL. Edit: The 18z RGEM is still aggressive too, mostly for NE. IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Maybe MKE can start working on that 100 inch winter total... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Maybe MKE can start working on that 100 10 inch winter total... BowMe edit above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 35 and flurries (albeit very tiny) here. Wouldn't mind a little surprise blanket overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 from LOT afternoon AFD... The NAM doesn't even have this but atleast something to watch. Thing to watch in the long range is if the ridging breaks down in the Pacific and if storms can start coming in further south on the west coast. GFS hints at it in the long range ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SPAWN A WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SEND AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPITTING OUT A STRIPE OF VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR OR OVER CWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. WITH NEGATIVE TEEN AIR AT H85 BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT...SUSPECT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A PEEK AT GFS TIME HEIGHT AT ORD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOWS SATURATION AND ADEQUATE LIFT INTO -15C FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...DESPITE QPF ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS UP TO MAYBE A TENTH OR SLIGHTLY MORE...WITH VERY COLD AIR MASS...SNOW WOULD BE HIGH RATIO AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN FIRST WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR MANY (IF SCENARIO PANS OUT...POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW). FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN GRIDS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR EASTERN PORTION OF CWA BEFORE WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 No accumulation on grassy surfaces with this morning's snow, but there was some accumulation on tree branches in Wauwatosa, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Light snow most of the morning here...looking like a nice, cold week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 5, 2011 Share Posted December 5, 2011 Feels like it's been raining for weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Looks like flurries about as far west as Sterling/Rock Falls. Looking forward to the flurries later on. Gonna be epic lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 from LOT afternoon AFD... The NAM doesn't even have this but atleast something to watch. Thing to watch in the long range is if the ridging breaks down in the Pacific and if storms can start coming in further south on the west coast. GFS hints at it in the long range ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SPAWN A WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SEND AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPITTING OUT A STRIPE OF VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR OR OVER CWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. WITH NEGATIVE TEEN AIR AT H85 BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT...SUSPECT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A PEEK AT GFS TIME HEIGHT AT ORD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOWS SATURATION AND ADEQUATE LIFT INTO -15C FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...DESPITE QPF ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS UP TO MAYBE A TENTH OR SLIGHTLY MORE...WITH VERY COLD AIR MASS...SNOW WOULD BE HIGH RATIO AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN FIRST WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR MANY (IF SCENARIO PANS OUT...POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW). FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN GRIDS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR EASTERN PORTION OF CWA BEFORE WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. DVN seems to be on the same page.. THESE MODELS INDICATE A LIGHT QPF EVENT...IN THE FORM OF SNOW BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THE MODERATE FORCING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOWFALL IN THE RANGE OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SLIGHT...INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 DVN seems to be on the same page.. THESE MODELS INDICATE A LIGHT QPF EVENT...IN THE FORM OF SNOW BASED ON THERMAL PROFILES...OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THE MODERATE FORCING FOR A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOWFALL IN THE RANGE OF AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE...HAVE RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM SLIGHT...INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. pretty bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Swear I just heard a rumble of thunder hear... might just be going crazy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 No accumulation on grassy surfaces with this morning's snow, but there was some accumulation on tree branches in Wauwatosa, at least. I was at UWM this morning: there was a little accumulation on the grass with the half dollar sized flakes coming down! Lake effect might accumulate a little tonight as N winds blow in off the land instead of the 40° lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 I was at UWM this morning: there was a little accumulation on the grass with the half dollar sized flakes coming down! Lake effect might accumulate a little tonight as N winds blow in off the land instead of the 40° lake. With the air temperature likely below freezing, overnight will be our opportunity if the lake bands can head S/SW soon enough. Could be some bands forming in N Lake Michigan according to MKX and the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 from LOT afternoon AFD... The NAM doesn't even have this but atleast something to watch. Thing to watch in the long range is if the ridging breaks down in the Pacific and if storms can start coming in further south on the west coast. GFS hints at it in the long range ON THURSDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...DIGGING H5 TROUGH WILL SPAWN A WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND SEND AN ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SPITTING OUT A STRIPE OF VERY LIGHT QPF NEAR OR OVER CWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. WITH NEGATIVE TEEN AIR AT H85 BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT...SUSPECT WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. A PEEK AT GFS TIME HEIGHT AT ORD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD SHOWS SATURATION AND ADEQUATE LIFT INTO -15C FAVORED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THEREFORE...DESPITE QPF ONLY IN THE HUNDREDTHS UP TO MAYBE A TENTH OR SLIGHTLY MORE...WITH VERY COLD AIR MASS...SNOW WOULD BE HIGH RATIO AND POSSIBLY RESULT IN FIRST WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW OF THE SEASON FOR MANY (IF SCENARIO PANS OUT...POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW). FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED UP POPS IN GRIDS TO CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL WILL OCCUR. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR EASTERN PORTION OF CWA BEFORE WAVE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. Sounds like a step in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 FWIW...The latest HRRR develops a nice LE band tonight and targets SE. WI and NE. IL.Edit: The 18z RGEM is still aggressive too, mostly for NE. IL. 22z HRRR has more of a NE. IL target. It even kicks out 3-4" near ORD...That's not going to happen, but it's fun to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 6, 2011 Author Share Posted December 6, 2011 LER has quickly turned to LES here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LER has quickly turned to LES here. did the same thing on the way home from COD but not a full changeover. Don't think I've seen LES on this side of the lake before a decent synoptic snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 LER has quickly turned to LES here. Here it's slowly turning over to pure LES. 35° with a mix still. Probably a 70/30 ratio now. 100% snow at 9:30pm. Starting to stick too. I was hearing the possibility of one main semi-organized band later tonight developing south of MKX. Where can I see the HRRR data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 Had about a half hour period of flurries a little while ago. Nice to see a few flakes flying around in the breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 6, 2011 Share Posted December 6, 2011 looks like the 0z GFS is a further south with the snow band thursday night (along and south of I-80 from IA-IN) and a smidge wetter in spots (near .10" liquid) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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