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December 2011 General Discussion/Obs


Chicago Storm

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Whole lot of nothing going on here. Light drizzle, warm... been like that all day. On the trip down yesterday a lot of the farm fields were still underwater, or the river valleys were all coated in sediment and the plants were all on their side facing the direction of the current. Either they was straight line winds or flooding scars :santa:

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Big time.

Meh, I still say a ton of threats, sucky busts, and nice surprises will occur in the med-long range. Models have just been TOO bad. The other day the GFS had a thickness of 494 one run (sfc temps mid-teens) and the very next run it was 544 (sfc temps upper 30s) around day 14. Its ridiculous how bad it is in the long range, better off reading the farmers almanac. :thumbsup:

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the models change every 6 hours. Oh, and the very end of the long range is the FIRST day of winter.

http://www.americanw...nterobs-thread/

Very true, but it's not the models anyone's worried about.

It's that the overall pattern in the near future doesn't support much in the way of appreciable snow in our region.

THAT SAID, it doesn't mean we still can't get appreciable snow, there's just a lower than normal chance of getting it.

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It does for the next couple of weeks, but probably a little early on the winter sucking overall theme. But maybe the fairy snow mother will come wave her wand and everything will be okay.

I did say we're just starting the slide towards sucking...kind of like the first loss after starting 6-0.

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Yeah, just wish it would accumulate. Kinda accumulating a thin ice layer on grassy surfaces, but besides that nothing. Not to mention it just turned to a light to moderate sleet.

Idk it was still snow when I walked into the library a few minutes ago... But yeah definitely having a hard time sticking even with the steady hour long burst earlier this morning..

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Idk it was still snow when I walked into the library a few minutes ago... But yeah definitely having a hard time sticking even with the steady hour long burst earlier this morning..

It did actually pick up in intensity when it changed to sleet, and I'd imagine it'll change precip types a few times today if it continues to stream in off the lake.

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The RGEM develops a pretty nice LES band for northeast Illinois tomorrow morning. The St. Louis WRF does too, but not as impressive.

BTW I just noticed the RGEM shows some pretty good snow in southern/southeast Michigan and northern Indiana tonight. Could be a last minute surprise for you guys out east. :snowman:

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The RGEM develops a pretty nice LES band for northeast Illinois tomorrow morning. The St. Louis WRF does too, but not as impressive.

BTW I just noticed the RGEM shows some pretty good snow in southern/southeast Michigan and northern Indiana tonight. Could be a last minute surprise for you guys out east. :snowman:

I have fingers crossed. We went from the 0z/6z runs giving no accumulating snow, to the 12z nam/gfs both giving about 2", and the latest HRRR...

acsnw_t7sfc_f15.png

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I have fingers crossed. We went from the 0z/6z runs giving no accumulating snow, to the 12z nam/gfs both giving about 2", and the latest HRRR...

Nice. Looks it wants to drop a very localized 2" amount pretty close to Milwaukee as well.

DVN mentioned in the morning AFD that there may be some seeder/feeder mechanism going on out further west later today and tonight. The NAM and RGEM both show pockets of very light precip, so it may be latching on to this idea. Looks like we could get some flurries later today or tonight.

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some crazy shear from 850mb down to the sfc on the western side of the lake creating that convergent boundary. LE precip has made it all the way out here.

from LOT

ONE INTERESTING FEATURE

TONIGHT IS THAT THE REGIONAL GEM DEVELOPS A WEAK MESO LOW ACROSS

THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE...DUMPING 4+ INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS

RACINE/KENOSHA/LAKE AND EVEN MCHENRY COUNTIES TONIGHT AND INTO

TOMORROW MORNING. THE PREVIOUS RGEM RUNS SHOWED SIMILAR

OUTCOMES... BUT MORE ACROSS LAKE COUNTY INDIANA/COOK COUNTY AND

NOWHERE NEAR AS INTENSE AS THE CURRENT RUN. WILL MONITOR TO SEE IF

TRENDS LEAN IN A HIGHER DIRECTION BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT IN THE

SUB HALF IN RANGE.

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