winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 the thing is though that it misses the phase...this is something we need to watch for in the subsequent runs agreed. and its the 18z run... so hoping the 00z run shows an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 agreed. and its the 18z run... so hoping the 00z run shows an improvement really its just the GFS so I'm not expecting major changes until the shorter term with 4-5 days. In terms of model analysis though yes we can always continue to watch and hope it catches on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 agreed. and its the 18z run... so hoping the 00z run shows an improvement 12z, 18z, 00z, 06z runs all basically score the exact same on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Its typical STJ issues with the GFS, it will come around, At least its something legitimate to track besides the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Time to get this thread back on track, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 btw 18Z nam large area of RH at 84 hrs covering much into VA WVA KY IND TN NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 fyi, since you don't have to be as old as me for your memory to fade, Earl Barker's website has NAM, GFS and RUC archives going back a couple of years if you go down to the 27th line on this page (not counting the first group of 4 lines of links,) you'll see it says "Archive Conus Charts GFS, NAM and RUC" at this link: http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm the GFS only goes out to 120 hours, but in case anyone was wondering, this is the 120 hr. GFS surface map from 12Z 2/1/10 run and shows nothing would make it north of DCA and the Low was moving out to sea in reality, the DCA/BWI area had over a foot on the ground by 12Z 2/6/10, with another foot to come in most places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Fuse is lit.... http://www.americanw...dpost__p__99221 Not really... Looking back at the proposed analog, there was more of a slingshot, and the whole set up was more NE... Looks like the blocking was different too. And in any event, we're not talking about the low that's now over the Great Lakes somehow migrating down to the SE - looks much more like it will drift WNW. The piece worth watching is still somewhere SSW of Alaska. Don't get me wrong - I can see the Euro development occurring - but just because two maps look the same, doesn't make them similar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 fyi, since you don't have to be as old as me for your memory to fade, Earl Barker's website has NAM, GFS and RUC archives going back a couple of years if you go down to the 27th line on this page (not counting the first group of 4 lines of links,) you'll see it says "Archive Conus Charts GFS, NAM and RUC" at this link: http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm the GFS only goes out to 120 hours, but in case anyone was wondering, this is the 120 hr. GFS surface map from 12Z 2/1/10 run and shows nothing would make it north of DCA and the Low was moving out to sea in reality, the DCA/BWI area had over a foot on the ground by 12Z 2/6/10, with another foot to come in most places Great find! Here is the GFS 5 days before the December 09 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great find! Here is the GFS 5 days before the December 09 blizzard cough cough no phase, escape of the STJ s/w cough cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great find! Here is the GFS 5 days before the December 09 blizzard hmm looks eerily similar to the gfs now ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
opengeo Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Great find! Here is the GFS 5 days before the December 09 blizzard Priceless. What did the Euro show for the same time frame though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Priceless. What did the Euro show for the same time frame though? Im pretty sure no model showed the storm similar to the actual track at that time frame but its possible it had it suppressed like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Im pretty sure no model showed the storm similar to the actual track at that time frame but its possible it had it suppressed like the GFS hmm you think the GFS has a se bias this year? or did they work out that kink? just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hmm you think the GFS has a se bias this year? or did they work out that kink? just curious If the storm next weekend does occur look for the GFS to finally catch on about Wednesday or Thursday. Also don't be shocked if the Euro loses it for a run. That of course means a hay day for the negative nannies on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Priceless. What did the Euro show for the same time frame though? dude READ the threads WOOF THREAD PAGE 4 POST 6 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/2951-woof/page__view__findpost__p__95368 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 dude READ the threads WOOF THREAD PAGE 4 POST 6 http://www.americanw...dpost__p__95368 I think he means leading up to the storms last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Priceless. What did the Euro show for the same time frame though? well, here's a link to Zwyt's website 7 days before (12/12) http://fortysouthwx....ght-to-the-jma/ in a thread that JI started (now that thread is what's priceless) 5 days prior 0Z 12/14 Euro was a huge hit for DCA http://fortysouthwx....c/296-00z-euro/ EDIT: notice the pattern in those threads? JMA on board, just like it is with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hmm looks eerily similar to the gfs now ... and though the pattern isn't exactly the same, for that storm to occur a piece of the PV had to break off and phase in with the STJ s/w, which a lot of people doubted early on for the same reasons they doubt it now. The fact that it happened last yr though doesn't make it any more likely or less likely obviously but it's just a case where you can say the evolution was similar.In no way am I suggesting this is likely, I am just pointing out that this is why we need to track these things because the potential is obviously there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Priceless. What did the Euro show for the same time frame though? If you are referring to december 19th ..here was the ECM Does this help any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 and though the pattern isn't exactly the same, for that storm to occur a piece of the PV had to break off and phase in with the STJ s/w, which a lot of people doubted early on for the same reasons they doubt it now. The fact that it happened last yr though doesn't make it any more likely or less likely obviously but it's just a case where you can say the evolution was similar.In no way am I suggesting this is likely, I am just pointing out that this is why we need to track these things because the potential is obviously there. i agree, it does look alot like last year, but it all depends on the variables , so we will have to wait and see if the atmosphere will react the same way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 If you are referring to december 19th ..here was the ECM Does this help any? those dates don't jibe that would make the storm 12/21'ish vs. 12/19/09 wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 more Proof that JI has no clue... No run of the euro ever brought snow to DCA or any kind or IAD over 1" in a thread that JI started (now that thread is what's priceless) 5 days prior 0Z 12/14 Euro was a huge hit for DCA http://fortysouthwx....c/296-00z-euro/ EDIT: notice the pattern in those threads? JMA on board, just like it is with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 those dates don't jibe that would make the storm 12/21'ish vs. 12/19/09 wouldn't it? Found them in a thread for the december 19-20th 2009 storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 more Proof that JI has no clue... No run of the euro ever brought snow to DCA or any kind or IAD over 1" i thought the run of the euro for thedec storm last yr brought snow to IAD and DCA, guess i was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 well, here's a link to Zwyt's website 7 days before (12/12) http://fortysouthwx....ght-to-the-jma/ in a thread that JI started (now that thread is what's priceless) 5 days prior 0Z 12/14 Euro was a huge hit for DCA http://fortysouthwx....c/296-00z-euro/ EDIT: notice the pattern in those threads? JMA on board, just like it is with this system KMA has been consistent with a coastal bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 KMA has been consistent with a coastal bomb got link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I've always had this question and I guess I've never seen it answered fully...is it pure coincidence that two jet-streams phase or does one disturbance notice a weakness, or something along those lines, that causes the two to phase. If it was pure coincidence you'd think you would see it less, or very un-commonly as the conditions would need to be pretty perfect for such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 got link? No but theres one guy at accuweather who always posts it...apparently its had a bomb the last 3 runs FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I've always had this question and I guess I've never seen it answered fully...is it pure coincidence that two jet-streams phase or does one disturbance notice a weakness, or something along those lines, that causes the two to phase. If it was pure coincidence you'd think you would see it less, or very un-commonly as the conditions would need to be pretty perfect for such an event. hmm good question, hopefully one of the METS can answer it, id like to know that myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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