Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ive fallen for this line before...EURO shows storm..GFS dosent and in the end..the GFS and all the other models obliterate the Euro. If the EURO had other support, i might have some hope but this is discouraging to say the least. The euro members dont even agree with their operational They have the storm, just east of the operational which is always expected. I'm sure if the operational had a storm riding west of the apps but the ensembles showed it coming up the coast, you would be humping them. Anyway, expect Stebo to be in here shortly telling us it will be a lakes cutter so why worry? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z gfs says meow. Not even a hint of a threat 168 has a storm well east of Florida. Where have we seen that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z gfs says meow. Not even a hint of a threat ur right Ji not even a hint...a STJ s/w that misses a phase and goes out to sea, playing right into its bias. Do you actually look at anything besides the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ive fallen for this line before...EURO shows storm..GFS dosent and in the end..the GFS and all the other models obliterate the Euro. If the EURO had other support, i might have some hope but this is discouraging to say the least. The euro members dont even agree with their operational and this has happened when? oh yeah thats right last week when you asserted in expert opinion of mindless weenie and mongerer extraordinare that YOU were going to see snow today and the euro was out to lunch and way too west dude isnt it time for you to cancel winter ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 No offense, guys, but DT isn't this do-no-wrong met.... sure' but come on do you reallty think Ji's asserrtion that the GFS oblierates the European every time is really valid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This was a really good thread, but someone should to put it out of its misery. when does JI NOT ruin a thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 sure' but come on do you reallty think Ji's asserrtion that the GFS oblierates the European every time is really valid? Well clearly you're a great met and all... but some here might want to calm their excitement over this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Ive fallen for this line before...EURO shows storm..GFS dosent and in the end..the GFS and all the other models obliterate the Euro. If the EURO had other support, i might have some hope but this is discouraging to say the least. The euro members dont even agree with their operational How's our snowstorm going today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 . I like where we are sitting. Euro has something and the GFS is out to sea. Will be a fun week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 and this has happened when? oh yeah thats right last week when you asserted in expert opinion of mindless weenie and mongerer extraordinare that YOU were going to see snow today and the euro was out to lunch and way too west dude isnt it time for you to cancel winter ? GFS is sill an inferior model with winter storms especially for the east coast.The Euro kicked ass on this current storm., when no other models had the storm up in Michigan.The GFS had the storm off Long Island..96,00,03..GFS had nothing 6 days out..there should never be an argument Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 GFS is sill an inferior model with winter storms especially for the east coast.The Euro kicked ass on this current storm., when no other models had the storm up in Michigan.The GFS had the storm off Long Island..96,00,03..GFS had nothing 6 days out..there should never be an argument Yeah the GFS ONLY missed by around 900 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 some people need to stop hanging on every run, got a week to go, thats 28 gfs runs and 14 euro runs lol so im pretty confident were gonna see alot of different senerios play out run to run. i wouldnt beleive anything till were at least inside of 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 well i dont really know Ji that well at all, but i do like DT's discussions.... but come on guys... need to relax still a week away Totally agree with you. I'm glad DT is here. As i said, i'll take his analysis over Ji or some guy from Philly any day of the week. And as far as the next week, it's only a threat and that's how we should look at it. Anyone who says we are definitely getting a storm or definitely not getting a storm is just pissing in the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah the GFS ONLY missed by around 900 miles. 900 miles?? is that all? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It's funny how when a met makes a post, and in this case, a thread about a potential pattern, some people take it to mean that the met is saying there will be a storm. No one needs me to defend him, especially a schmuck like me, but a week out, DT has always preached patterns and not specifics. No met would talk specifics this far out. Just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Totally agree with you. I'm glad DT is here. As i said, i'll take his analysis over Ji or some guy from Philly any day of the week. And as far as the next week, it's only a threat and that's how we should look at it. Anyone who says we are definitely getting a storm or definitely not getting a storm is just pissing in the wind. very well said. got too many people hanging on every run, it will make ya crazy toi hang on every run. alots gonna change lol need to relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 900 miles?? is that all? lol Yeah, but what's 900 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 What I can't believe is that people (sorry, a person) who aren't (isn't) METS, would try to PUBLICLY question their opinions and evaluations. This isn't a discussion about who's more likely to win in Monday night football, where the knowledge level is about equal and one person's opinion is about as valuable as anyone else's. Lesson here.....it's probably best to NOT argue/question the evaluation of weather by a weather professional when you're just a "weekend warrior" of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah, but what's 900 miles? about 3-4 states and a big spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 What I can't believe is that people (sorry, a person) who aren't (isn't) METS, would try to PUBLICLY question their opinions and evaluations. This isn't a discussion about who's more likely to win in Monday night football, where the knowledge level is about equal and one person's opinion is about as valuable as anyone else's. Lesson here.....it's probably best to NOT argue/question the evaluation of weather of a weather professional when you're just a "weekend warrior" of weather. Just my 2 cents, but I think we should concentrate more on the possible scenarios rather than the person making the forecast. Im much more fascinated by the science than the various personas of the people who make forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is different guys. Both models had a storm last week. This week..only one model does so it's an outlier. I don't do outliers. I need to see more model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 It's all about the setup. For todays storm it was terrible for the East Coast. For the future one it looks very good. I am not saying There is going to be a storm. But the possibilities are much better than they were for todays mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is different guys. Both models had a storm last week. This week..only one model does so it's an outlier. I don't do outliers. I need to see more model support. last week it was 2 weeks out, now its 1 week out, too soon to really see which ones an outlier. i mean were out to hr 192 for gods sake. need more time to figure out which is outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Just my 2 cents, but I think we should concentrate more on the possible scenarios rather than the person making the forecast. Im much more fascinated by the science than the various personas of the people who make forecasts. I agree with you, but at the same time, when you have several Mets interested/upbeat about potential as close as one week away, people are going to hang on what they say. That's fine. Nothing may come of it. But if DT, Wes, ORH, Analog, Ender, etc. come in here and post their "professional" opinion, I'll be darned if I'm going to disagree with them. If my opinion is different from theirs, there's about a 99.9% chance that I'm wrong. In that case, I just shut up and listen. Plenty of people here value their opinion, and I'll bet it gets under their skin just a little when those they're trying to help by posting here start questioning them just because the weather isn't working out the way they want it to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I agree with you, but at the same time, when you have several Mets interested/upbeat about potential as close as one week away, people are going to hang on what they say. That's fine. Nothing may come of it. But if DT, Wes, ORH, Analog, Ender, etc. come in here and post their "professional" opinion, I'll be darned if I'm going to disagree with them. If my opinion is different from theirs, there's about a 99.9% chance that I'm wrong. In that case, I just shut up and listen. Plenty of people here value their opinion, and I'll bet it gets under their skin just a little when those they're trying to help by posting here start questioning them just because the weather isn't working out the way they want it to. wow, very nicely said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 This is not trolling. Trolling would be when the storm was obvious and i was doing this Well the 18z GFS shows the storm it's just wayyyyyy suppressed and out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 from NCEP...FWIW.... 00Z/12 ENSEMBLE 500MB SPAGHETTI PLOTS HIGHLIGHTED AN AREA OF POSSIBLE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS LATER SAT 6 AND BEYOND. IT WAS MOSTLY ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT WERE SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST NEXT SAT OR SUN. THE 06Z/12 GFS RUN SEEMED TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS POSSIBILITY FOR NEXT SAT/SUN....BUT THE NEW GFS RUN HAS GONE BACK FLAT. RECENT RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD EARLIER SHOWN A CHANCE FOR CYCLOGENESIS NEXT WEEKEND OF THE SE COAST BUT THE MOST RECENT RUN HAD BACKED OFF FROM IT. NOW THE 12Z/12 RUN OF THE ECMWF IS BACK ON BOARD...DEVELOPING A MAJOR SNOWSTORM NEXT WEEKEND FROM INTERIOR NC TO NEW ENG. IF CORRECT...IT COULD LAY DOWN A HEAVY BLANKET OF SNOW IN THE SAME AREAS AS THE BIG SYS LAST YEAR...ALMOST TO THE DATE! A WHITE CHRISTMAS FOR THAT AREA 6 DAYS LATER WOULD BE HIGHLY FAVORED IN THE PERSISTENT COLD PATTERN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Couldn't one argue it is less of a thread the needle deal because the upper level setup overall is in decent shape, with the blocking, 50/50 low, etc? Some other factors may need to come into play, but at least the foundation is there, or at least better than it has been up until now. I don't think so as the evolution of the northern stream is critical and looks like needs to split the original vortex to get where the euro takes it. We don't have the worry that the low will go way west which I guess is a plus but right now, most are banking on one model that has shifted between having a storm, the storm too far east like the ensembles now have and a storm again. Sure the system is worth watching but that doesn't mean it's not a thread the needle situation. For us, that's typical anyway except in cases like the feb even last year and the pattern in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Well the 18z GFS shows the storm it's just wayyyyyy suppressed and out to sea. at least it shows it a week out, we can worry about placement later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 at least it shows it a week out, we can worry about placement later the thing is though that it misses the phase...this is something we need to watch for in the subsequent runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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