JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 always that risk with coastal the western side of the elongated 500 low IS -- the piece that is over manitoba -- is going to dive se at some point and it IS going tos spn up a coastal what the euro is doing is seeeing a strong piece of short wave energy in the STJ.... and the two phase Keep in mind the GFS as we all know.... at times does not accept that there actually something called the STJ on the planet earth so SINCE the GFS does see any STJ energy the model has NOTHING to phase ergo and Low is waaaaaaaay out to sea got it? What he said ^ And, to graphically represent it, it's the piece over CA on 96 ( top left panel): By 144 that piece has moved to the TX/LA area And by 168 it has of course blown up along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yes, that is a nice match. I am just worried that the wavelengths are a little too far to the east this go-around. Then again, that may be a good thing with analogs like 1966. I was just going to say...i think syracuse got like upper 30 inch snowfall with that one, wavelengths a bit futher east would be quite helpful for us living near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah for NNE and NNY not for thje mid atlantic. the flow is tow W-E if you say "the angle of cold air is all wrong " .......... I am going to fooking shoot you ( that was a joke guys) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Yeah for NNE and NNY not for thje mid atlantic. the flow is tow W-E That doesn't make any sense. If you're using the W-E flow as a reason, then NNE is in a worse spot than the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Euro ensembles are actually a little east of 00z, but still flag a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Euro ensembles are actually a little east of 00z, but still flag a storm. Great sign.. Are there ensembles for the GGEM? or UKMET? Would like a further west solution.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Great sign.. Are there ensembles for the GGEM? or UKMET? Would like a further west solution.. Considering how far East the UKMET was on the current system, would be interesting to see where they lie IRT GFS and EURO on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Great sign.. Are there ensembles for the GGEM? or UKMET? Would like a further west solution.. Canadian ensembles have the mean near 62W 40N, but they have a ton of spread. The 1002mb contour that I have, is about 600 miles in diameter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Great sign.. Are there ensembles for the GGEM? or UKMET? Would like a further west solution.. GGEM ensembles http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Awesome thread, awesome threat, and I second the motion that it's great having DT on the weather boards. It's going to be a crazy week ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 That doesn't make any sense. If you're using the W-E flow as a reason, then NNE is in a worse spot than the mid atlantic. Exactly! A W-E flow would be more supportive of snow for places like SBY than upstate NY, NH, VT, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 always that risk with coastal the western side of the elongated 500 low IS -- the piece that is over manitoba -- is in MY opinion--- going to dive se at some point and it IS going to spin up a coastal The 12z eur-- and most of the euro and euro ensmble means -- is doing is that it SEES a strong piece of short wave energy in the STJ.... so the western side of the elongated over the MN and northern Great lakes and the s/w in the STJ phase add vorticity... baked throughly... serve cold Keep in mind the GFS as we all know.... at times does not accept that there actually something called the STJ on the planet earth so SINCE the GFS does see any STJ energy the model has NOTHING to phase ergo and Low is waaaaaaaay out to sea got it? The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern. ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern. ] So far this winter the ensembles have consistently been further south and east than the op, in fact I would struggle to recall an ensemble run that was further north or west than the operational. Now in the case of the euro ensembles you posted above, they are far enough OTS to not affect the coast at all, but its somewhat expected if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern. ] Thats the same run I have and the time fits for the 12z run. Certainly shows the uncertainty as the mean is further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 The new euro ensemble mean based on the 12Z run looks like it has things farther east again unless I've latched onto an old run. I'm sure there are some members with more amplitude but I think it's look is a cause for concern. ] As we would expect from you Wes. However regarding this current system the Ensembles were always east of the Operational so i wouldn't be concerned about anything 7-8 days out but that's just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Agree with Wes. Storm is not happening. Euro is a complete outlier and the Gfs will probably be correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 So far this winter the ensembles have consistently been further south and east than the op, in fact I would struggle to recall an ensemble run that was further north or west than the operational. Now in the case of the euro ensembles you posted above, they are far enough OTS to not affect the coast at all, but its somewhat expected if you ask me. I guess but they supported the euro most of the time during the last storm in this time range if my memory is correct. They could very well not have enough amplitude because of averaging but to get the euro solution, the northern stream system needs to almost split and then have the weak southern stream shortwave phase with the digging western end of the initial vortex that split. If that's not a thread the needle deal, I'm not sure what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 As we would expect from you Wes. However regarding this current system the Ensembles were always east of the Operational so i wouldn't be concerned about anything 7-8 days out but that's just me. Actually, with this coming system, there was one model run where the euro ensembles had the storm but the operational euro didn't essentially that's now flipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Agree with Wes. Storm is not happening. Euro is a complete outlier and the Gfs will probably be correct Ji, I never said it wasn't happening, I have no idea whether it will happen or not. I think it's a long shot because the timing of the evolution and movement of the two streams has to be almost perfect to get a storm. That can happen sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I guess but they supported the euro most of the time during the last storm in this time range if my memory is correct. They could very well not have enough amplitude because of averaging but to get the euro solution, the northern stream system needs to almost split and then have the weak southern stream shortwave phase with the digging western end of the initial vortex that split. If that's not a thread the needle deal, I'm not sure what is. Couldn't one argue it is less of a thread the needle deal because the upper level setup overall is in decent shape, with the blocking, 50/50 low, etc? Some other factors may need to come into play, but at least the foundation is there, or at least better than it has been up until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 30 JAN 1966 Wow that's a really good analog. It's an unusual setup. High risk high reward here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Agree with Wes. Storm is not happening. Euro is a complete outlier and the Gfs will probably be correct hows that GFS model snow you were honking about 4 and 5 days ago working out for you so far JI? wadda got so far? 1" or is it 3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 hows that GFS model snow you were honking about 4 and 5 days ago working out for you so far JI? wadda got so far? 1" or is it 3"? Of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 it's all model analysis right now anyway...nothing is right or wrong at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 i cant tell if youre being sarcastic or not I think he's out of town next weekend for business. I read that somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Oh This could be tragic... Maybe he is heading for a place that does have snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z gfs says meow. Not even a hint of a threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z gfs says meow. Not even a hint of a threat And Dave said that would be the case...we need to give it time....obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 And Dave said that would be the case...we need to give it time....obviously Ive fallen for this line before...EURO shows storm..GFS dosent and in the end..the GFS and all the other models obliterate the Euro. If the EURO had other support, i might have some hope but this is discouraging to say the least. The euro members dont even agree with their operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 18z gfs says meow. Not even a hint of a threat Some 12z ensemble members showed a decent storm coming up the coast when the op had nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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