HM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JAN 1966 either the jan 25-27 or JAN 30-31 in bortth cases but especially the Later the 50/50 low was replaced bya massive SUPRESSED 500 LOW over Montral that was shaped like EGG or oval in the later case JAN 30-31 1966 the monster 500 Low ELONGATED into 2 parets-- like a LAVA LAMP and thw western Low moved out to MANITOba where it saw a s/w in the STJ cutting through the Lower Plains the western 500 Low over MB dropepd se into the s/w over the se USA massive phase massive storm Meh... I see what you mean about the Jan 30-31 event but definitely not the first one. But both of them don't really resemble the 12z ECMWF solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Its great to have DT posting. I know some people might not like his blunt speakings but he is the best asset to any board hands down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JMA had a Miller A bomb yesterday. JMA usually sniffs these things out first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JMA had a Miller A bomb yesterday. JMA usually sniffs these things out first and its consistency and accuracy can't be beat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Hello all. First post, but have been enjoying these board for years now. I appreciate all the great meterological discussion and often site acquired information while teaching, as I am a HS science teacher. This 12z Euro sure gets my attention. I live along the S. Jersey coast and enjoy any winter weather threat. Thank you all for your insights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Its great to have DT posting. I know some people might not like his blunt speakings but he is the best asset to any board hands down i always liked DT posting, very imformative, even if i dont agree sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 30 JAN 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12Z DEC 12 ECMWF SOLUTION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Meh... I see what you mean about the Jan 30-31 event but definitely not the first one. But both of them don't really resemble the 12z ECMWF solution. this is why I posted the maps from jan 30 1966 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 So obviously it's foolish to talk about exact amounts at this range and it's much more prudent to look at the signal shown but what is the model spitting out in terms of liquid equivalent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 this board for yrs?? lol Right, funny. i meant a more generic board(s) (Eastern, Accuwx, etc) and now American. Anyway, happy to give reports from my end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 12Z DEC 12 ECMWF SOLUTION wow almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 what did 12/16-17/1973 look like?...Not many bad things happened for winter lovers on the east coast when the AO was below -4...Either very cold with snow or just snow was in the news when the ao was -4 most of the time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 So obviously it's foolish to talk about exact amounts at this range and it's much more prudent to look at the signal shown but what is the model spitting out in terms of liquid equivalent? More East of 95 than West....general .25 - .75 for the DC area...up North gets clocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 More East of 95 than West....general .25 - .75 for the DC area...up North gets clocked I think DC gets an inch of liquid on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I think DC gets an inch of liquid on this run. Not much for me to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 what about March 01? http://www.meteo.psu...2001/us0304.php YES march 1 as well.... and that event was Hyped b/c of its similarity with JAN M 30-31 1966 however Mach 2001 failed b/c the cold air was MARGINAL all around the NE so with the No ARCTIC air in place the Low formed too close to the coast .... Jan 29 1966 850 temps over NYC -21c ... and even in NYC it did go over to rain for a while 28 FEB 2001 the 850 temps over -5c ti never snowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 I think DC gets an inch of liquid on this run. 1 inch doesn't show up until you get East of you really per Tombo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 We need some analogs where a trough was along the West Coast, huge block was retrograding across Canada and a trough was amplifying underneath across the East. what about 1/23-24/1965?...AO was tanking and we got a great ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Just some amazing +500 mb height anomalies with the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JMA MONSTER STORM BUT OUT TO SEA..STILL HITS COASTAL AREAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JMA MONSTER STORM BUT OUT TO SEA..STILL HITS COASTAL AREAS JI this is my link to the JMA... http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/jma/2010/12/12/basis12/namk/pslv/10121912_1212.gif this is out to sea but it si NOTHING loike the euro or qualifies as a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JI this is my link to the JMA... http://expert.weathe...121912_1212.gif this is out to sea but it si NOTHING loike the euro or qualifies as a monster WHOOAA! 1000mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can this storm come further west? Or is the greater risk that the storm goes further out to sea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 JI this is my link to the JMA... http://expert.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/jma/2010/12/12/basis12/namk/pslv/10121912_1212.gif The Accuweather maps showed 1 inch for ocean city of liquid but def not like the euro this is out to sea but it si NOTHING loike the euro or qualifies as a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Seems to me that the best thing is that this storm is showing up on several models now....qpf and exact track should not be part of the main conversation at this point just the fact that we are getting some consistency with the storm showing up is the bigger deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Can this storm come further west? Or is the greater risk that the storm goes further out to sea? always that risk with coastal the western side of the elongated 500 low IS -- the piece that is over manitoba -- is in MY opinion--- going to dive se at some point and it IS going to spin up a coastal The 12z eur-- and most of the euro and euro ensmble means -- is doing is that it SEES a strong piece of short wave energy in the STJ.... so the western side of the elongated over the MN and northern Great lakes and the s/w in the STJ phase add vorticity... baked throughly... serve cold Keep in mind the GFS as we all know.... at times does not accept that there actually something called the STJ on the planet earth so SINCE the GFS does see any STJ energy the model has NOTHING to phase ergo and Low is waaaaaaaay out to sea got it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 Qutie a beautiful setup at H500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 this is why I posted the maps from jan 30 1966 Yes, that is a nice match. I am just worried that the wavelengths are a little too far to the east this go-around. Then again, that may be a good thing with analogs like 1966. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 12, 2010 Share Posted December 12, 2010 what about 1/23-24/1965?...AO was tanking and we got a great ice storm... Nah, 500mb is not similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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