SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0Z CMC Hr 82 Hr 106 (deformation band?) Note: Precip might change significantly in future runs until hr <~84. Euro forms a ULL! Hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Euro farther west still, impressive cutoff low over LA/MS by Tuesday. Over 3" of rain in north GA. I am beginning to believe in the closed low scenario, when the Euro is this consistent, it is not too wrong too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Euro has a ULL over North Georgia at 120! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGA WINTER Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Is there still any optimism for snow for anywhere besides the moutains for this weather system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Is there still any optimism for snow for anywhere besides the moutains for this weather system? Per the Euro TN is still game and maybe some flurries for northern GA and some parts of WNC...it's hard to say the ULL kind of disappears between frames so it's tough to say exactly where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 6z NAM is already coming in a lot jucier with the system than the 00z NAM had it so that might be a good sign. It's out to 51. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 the latest run of GFS is shifting back west and closer to the latest ECMWF and GGEM. Its not quite there but its a substantial difference. It would be just like the model to find a major storm, lose it , then inch back to it. Old run: New, valid same time: Notice the trough axis is well back from Toledo to Mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 From HPC this morning ...COMMA HEAD SNOWS ANTICIPATED FROM THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK... THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE A TROUGH BROADENING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DOWNWIND OF AN EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE SHARES THESE IDEAS. DETAIL-WISE...THERE ARE MAJOR ISSUES OUT EAST WITH HOW FAR SOUTH A CLOSED CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND HOW DEEP IT WILL GET. THE NCEP GUIDANCE WAS ALONE WITH THEIR MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE WAS SETTLING UPON A MORE SOUTHERN/SLOWER SOLUTION. WHILE THE INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE WAS MORE BELIEVABLE WITH THEIR MORE SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFICATION EXPECTED UPSTREAM DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD...THE 00Z CANADIAN FIT TELECONNECTIONS BEST /THE APEX OF THE NORTHERN STREAM RIDGE IN NORTHERN QUEBEC IMPLIES A CLOSED LOW IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF TENNESSEE/. HOWEVER... THE CANADIAN LOOKS QUITE DEEP AS ITS 500 HPA STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE 5-6 SIGMAS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY...WHICH IS IMPROBABLE. THIS IS ANOTHER REASON WHY A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN/00Z CANADIAN WAS NEEDED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH SLOWED ITS PROGRESSION AT LEAST 12 HOURS WHEN COMPARED TO CONTINUITY /THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS WOULD HAVE FORCED ADDITIONAL SLOWING/. DEPENDING ON ITS DEPTH AND TRACK...COMMA HEAD SNOWS SHOULD SPREAD FROM THE MID-SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND POTENTIALLY UP THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST IF THE DEEPER/UNCLIMATOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS VERIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Yep, I am thinking the cutoff is the way to go. To me, it's amazing to see the GFS ensembles so clearly show the cutoff while the operational still isn't there. Like Robert said, the 6z operational GFS is stepping in that direction. Even with that said, the 6z operational still isn't there. Compare 18z Monday on the operational vs. the ensemble mean. Remember, that is an ensemble MEAN...pretty impressive. Operational Ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Yep, I am thinking the cutoff is the way to go. To me, it's amazing to see the GFS ensembles so clearly show the cutoff while the operational still isn't there. Like Robert said, the 6z operational GFS is stepping in that direction. Even with that said, the 6z operational still isn't there. Compare 18z Monday on the operational vs. the ensemble mean. Remember, that is an ensemble MEAN...pretty impressive. Operational Ensemble mean good post Matt. The mean has it squarely over MEM, same place op. had it for days until recently. If I had any guts I'd make a first call map with regard to specifics on this one, but that's too dangerous and I'm still chicken right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 I hear ya for sure. To say it's a challenge is an understatement. I guess right now if I were to pick any one model to go with it would be the 0z GEM operational. Looks about the best fit to me. good post Matt. The mean has it squarely over MEM, same place op. had it for days until recently. If I had any guts I'd make a first call map with regard to specifics on this one, but that's too dangerous and I'm still chicken right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Got to love this line from RAH's afternoon discussion after a good in depth overview of the model differences. "BOTTOM LINE IS... MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST DUE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN BEING ABLE TO IMPROVE IT." That reminds me of a storm last winter where GSP was struggling and the disco says, "some days I wish I were a farmer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The Canadian and Euro 0z show quite interesting solutions. The American models, including the current NAM, seem to show nothing more than a glorified frontal passage. Will be interesting to see how this plays out... Is this a classic case of the American models losing the storm only to regain it as the event nears, or are they leading the way like much of last winter? I bet we'll have a good idea by the 0z runs tonight. The pessimist in me says it won't happen, but I am truly hoping for some wild weather. There is pretty good evidence to support either solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The Canadian and Euro 0z show quite interesting solutions. The American models, including the current NAM, seem to show nothing more than a glorified frontal passage. Will be interesting to see how this plays out... Is this a classic case of the American models losing the storm only to regain it as the event nears, or are they leading the way like much of last winter? I bet we'll have a good idea by the 0z runs tonight. The pessimist in me says it won't happen, but I am truly hoping for some wild weather. There is pretty good evidence to support either solution. the NAM is now coming around..surprise. I'd bet the GFS begins to revert to the major cutoff again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 That reminds me of a storm last winter where GSP was struggling and the disco says, "some days I wish I were a farmer" One of the funniest lines in a afd I have ever read. I have it saved. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --SOMETIMES I THINK I SHOULD HAVE BEEN A FARMER. AT LONG LAST...WE /THINK/ WE ARE GETTING A SOLID HANDLE ON THE UNFOLDING WINTER WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS/NORTHEAST GEORGIA. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT CONFIDENCE DROPS OFF SHARPLY AFTER THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR SO...AS MUCH OF THIS EVENT WILL BE DOMINATED BY MESOSCALE AND EVEN CONVECTIVE SCALE PROCESSES. AS OF 16Z...A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DRIFT/EXPAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH TIME. IN FACT...THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED PRECIP WILL PROBABLY NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESS UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW MAKES THE JUMP TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PILE UP WHERE ITS ALREADY FALLING...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL NEED AN UPWARD ADJUSTMENT. WE WILL NOW ADVERTISE 8-12 INCHES THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND BUMP THE I-40 PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS TO 5 TO 8 INCHES. AS USUAL...THE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAVEAT APPLIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 9z SREF @ 72hrs, agree with what others have postulated this morning, Memphis (mid MS River Valley) seems a reasonable starting place, as the low closes off at the base of the trough. Thereafter tracking through N AL/N GA, upstate of SC near GSP, maybe GSO and out near the Chesapeake. That would place TN on the favored NW side, with -SN chances for N AL, N GA, and western SC & NC, depending on how deep. Dryslot should punch into the area from about Macon to Charlotte as the main pva sweeps through, but still a potential for a few convective type squalls as the greatest delta-heights pass overhead. Still somewhat uncertain on strength and whether actual surface reflection will ride up the Apps, or attempt to occlude back into the upper level over SC/NC, maybe the TN Valley? Best conservative guess on strength would be a peak in the 540-543 range, somewhere between ATL and GSP, as that looks to be the area where the cutoff turns hard right, and at its most mature point. Still lots of uncertainty, but a general picture is starting to emerge now that we are within 72hrs... What a ride this was in the 3-7 day range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 And it's sandwiched between two fairly large areas of high pressure. Nice squeeze play, maybe it will squeeze a little harder and push the low a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 9z SREF @ 72hrs, agree with what others have postulated this morning, Memphis (mid MS River Valley) seems a reasonable starting place, as the low closes off at the base of the trough. Thereafter tracking through N AL/N GA, upstate of SC near GSP, maybe GSO and out near the Chesapeake. That would place TN on the favored NW side, with -SN chances for N AL, N GA, and western SC & NC, depending on how deep. Dryslot should punch into the area from about Macon to Charlotte as the main pva sweeps through, but still a potential for a few convective type squalls as the greatest delta-heights pass overhead. Still somewhat uncertain on strength and whether actual surface reflection will ride up the Apps, or attempt to occlude back into the upper level over SC/NC, maybe the TN Valley? Best conservative guess on strength would be a peak in the 540-543 range, somewhere between ATL and GSP, as that looks to be the area where the cutoff turns hard right, and at its most mature point. Still lots of uncertainty, but a general picture is starting to emerge now that we are within 72hrs... What a ride this was in the 3-7 day range Good post and thoughts there. And yet SREF has made a stout halt on the eastward progression. So now we have all the models going back west it appears. It would be something for the initial GFS to have latched on to this in the approx. correct spot, after all this. 12z GFS coming in now, and it too is already further west and south through 42 hours. We'll see where it makes the cutoff. Exciting storm to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Here's the latest I've got, it's further west and south. 06 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 at 57 hours there's a very strong inflection point curvature on the rel. vorticity around the Missouri bootheel, so the 5h cutoff should develop near there. Very impressive deep trough on this one, so the ability to lift moisture ahead of the front is going to be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 The GFS is going to be a step in the right direction it seems. looks like it's trying to close off at hour 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Tighter and deeper at 57 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 ULL looks good at 78 over TN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 And sure enough by 60 hours its closed off (546) around west TN/KY, with thkns of 534 and 850 temps -4. Heavy rain in western Carolnas and GA through 66 hours, and moisture beginning to wrap into the colder air over Middle Tennessee. (snow showers at that point there). By 72, the closed off low is deepening to 540 heights over middle Tenn, so its a pretty cold cutoff low for November. Snow in Ky, Tn so far not shown to be that much but remember as the low develops aloft, moisture will wrap around, and this is a cold enough one for snow probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 Awesome 12Z GFS run, looks like we are going to get our ULL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Boy that dry slot is killer for Robert and I's area. This is a good run for folks in TN and WNC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Thickness drops to 528 over Nashville. The model (and others did this) do something strange and thats make it a colder as you go type storm. Very dynamic cutoff. Pretty nice to see this work like that, so obviously snow showers galore under that thing in the TENN valley, including n. Ala, and nw GA I'd think. Probably a situation where its raining in Pittsburg, and there's snow showers in Nashville and Chattanooga Monday Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Between 72 and 78 the 540 low gets wider and drops a little south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 Thickness drops to 528 over Nashville. The model (and others did this) do something strange and thats make it a colder as you go type storm. Very dynamic cutoff. Pretty nice to see this work like that, so obviously snow showers galore under that thing in the TENN valley, including n. Ala, and nw GA I'd think. Probably a situation where its raining in Pittsburg, and there's snow showers in Nashville and Chattanooga Monday Night. I smell a snow chase for me if this continues! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Boy that dry slot is killer for Robert and I's area. This is a good run for folks in TN and WNC Yeah, an upper closed off low is never good for us, if your wanting wrap around precip. I never was looking for snow east of the mtns in NC on this one..its all west of the Apps and up to the chain. In fact, we'd have a less shot at some flakes on the wraparound than say CLT or GSO would. We get dryslotted rapidly . But boy do we get the rain before the cold comes in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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