Cheeznado Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 The Euro has been very inconsistent so not sure I trust it. The Ukie is a lot more like the GFS. Still very uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Imo one of the best mets at GSP, is not ready to ride the GFS just yet. Sounds like the offices are pretty divided on the models. Here is part of the short term afd. SUNDAY IS WHEN THE REAL FORECAST DIFFERENCES EMERGE. THE 00 UTC GFS AND THE NAM THROUGH 84 HOURS ARE BOTH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE DEVELOPING TROUGH...TO THE POINT WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLY ON THE DAY SUNDAY. THE 00 UTC ECMWF ON THE OTHER EXTREME IS NOW SLOWER THAN IT WAS BEFORE...CUTTING OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER AR/LA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SOLUTION DOESN/T HAVE THE BULK OF THE PCPN MOVING INTO THE FA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. THE CANADIAN SUPPORTS THE EC AND THE UKMET...AT LEAST TROUGH 72 HOURS...IS ALSO SLOWER. HONESTLY...AT THIS POINT...IT/S VERY DIFFICULT TO CHOOSE A WINNER. SOME OFFICES HAVE ELECTED TO FOLLOW THE FASTER 00 UTC GFS. I DON/T AGREE WITH THIS...BUT I DID TREND TOWARD A FASTER SOLUTION TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THE GRIDS. AGAIN...THIS IS A VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM...MCAVOY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Had to be away most of yesterday and now I see we have all kinds of solutions, still! Closed off lows are such head aches, but still about the funnest of all Wx phenomenon to me. The latest run of ECMWF is a big rainmaker and back to nearly what the GFS was going for, but GFS is much more progressive. The pattern is just loaded lately and its really hard to know which way to lean with such a big discrepancy even at this shorter range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 the SREF looking more like a GFS version so far, but not quite as progressive. Notice how cold the air is coming into the Tn. Valley -8. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 NAO seems to indicate some mischief on its way. Though it may be transient in nature, that is a pretty big drop on today's ensembles... It is worth noting (as has been discussed) that the ensembles have underforecast how positive the NAO has been. (Please note this was also mentioned on the main board w/ a similar wording...I posted before it was on there.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 12z NAM at hour 66, 72, and 78 fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 now i see 2 areas spinning off the west coast, one down near san diego and another wnw of seattle washington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 GFS @ hr(s): 78 -> 111(ULL forms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 GFS @ hr(s): 78 -> 102(ULL trying to form) : No ULL ULL shows up but goes from north eastern TN into north central NC...no juice in it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Small cutoff forms over NC in hour 111. I guess its progress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 ULL shows up but goes from north eastern TN into north central NC...no juice in it though. I would only start to worry about precip forecasts when we get into the NAM range. ****** ULL forms. Hoping for a trend of the ULL strengthening in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Well hello at 204, 12z tries to pop another ULL...too far out but looks like the upcoming weeks are going to be a roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Well hello at 204, 12z tries to pop another ULL...too far out but looks like the upcoming weeks are going to be a roller coaster. Just about to say the same thing. GFS also pops an impressive PNA ridge out west, and it gets cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Well hello at 204, 12z tries to pop another ULL...too far out but looks like the upcoming weeks are going to be a roller coaster. Canadian sticking to its guns, 545dm closed off in western TN at 84hrs. Edit: 539 northern AL @ 96, neg tilt. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 BRR! If you are to believe beyond the 10 day, it suggests -15 to -18 850 temperatures invading NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 BRR! If you are to believe beyond the 10 day, it suggests -15 to -18 850 temperatures invading NC. It has sub freezing temps at 12z down into Tampa Bay in FL. That would break some records I would have to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It has sub freezing temps at 12z down into Tampa Bay in FL. That would break some records I would have to think. Looks like things are finally looking up for this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Canadian sticking to its guns, 545dm closed off in western TN at 84hrs. Edit: 539 northern AL @ 96, neg tilt. :-) Me wanna see some more of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Canadian sticking to its guns, 545dm closed off in western TN at 84hrs. Edit: 539 northern AL @ 96, neg tilt. :-) 536 on the AL/GA border at 108... EDIT: 531 over MY BACKYARD at 120!!! Surely I could at least get some snow showers from that.. If the Euro shows something similar I’ll be ready to throw out the GFS and assume we are going to have a major cutoff this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 awesome ! 536 on the AL/GA border at 108... If the Euro shows something similar I’ll be ready to throw out the GFS and assume we are going to have a major cutoff this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 awesome ! Yeah, good run, kind of on the extreme side of the envelope, but still possible. Goes BOOM, 531 just sw of GSP @ 120hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 536 on the AL/GA border at 108... EDIT: 531 over MY BACKYARD at 120!!! Surely I could at least get some snow showers from that.. If the Euro shows something similar I’ll be ready to throw out the GFS and assume we are going to have a major cutoff this weekend. Sounds like fun times ahead. No expectations for snow this early though. Just happy to see this pattern developing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 GFS ensembles say that the Op is probably too fast, the Canadian sticking to its guns is a good sign. If the Ukie and Euro have a slower deeper trof, then maybe we will have something interesting. I find it interesting that the models are still this divergent only 96 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 I'd like to cash in on that look right now. Awesome looking run for the southern apps, even if it's all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 GFS ensembles say that the Op is probably too fast, the Canadian sticking to its guns is a good sign. If the Ukie and Euro have a slower deeper trof, then maybe we will have something interesting. I find it interesting that the models are still this divergent only 96 hours out. I have to say that I'm been a little surprised by you Cheez. Normally you poopoo this type of storm and are right in doing so. This thing must have some real potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It appears the 12Z Ukmet is going to trend with what the op Euro was suggesting over night. If the 12Z Euro holds onto that solution, things could get a bit interesting especially in the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It appears the 12Z Ukmet is going to trend with what the op Euro was suggesting over night. If the 12Z Euro holds onto that solution, things could get a bit interesting especially in the higher elevations. Tell me more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Euro has a closed low, but farther SW, over SW Louisiana at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Euro has a closed low, but farther SW, over SW Louisiana at 96 So much for being progressive, basically stalls over LA for a day or two, 546 range, @ 126 looks like it is almost heading to FL Another trough is coming down, so that would likely catch it, weird run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 12z GFS ens members, op would be an outlier within its own suite, confidence of actually seeing a cutoff has increased, unsure where or how strong, but this is encouraging... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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