WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Here is todays GSP long term..... RAH afd... .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 245 PM... CHAOS CONTINUES IN THE MODELS WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS HAVE AT LEAST A PASSING RESEMBLANCE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER TENNESSEE SUNDAY. THE ECMWF THEN PROCEEDS TO CUT OFF A LOW OVER THE GULF STATES... WHILE THE GFS IS LATER TO DEVELOP A LOW AND MUCH FURTHER NORTH... SIMILAR TO THE CANADIAN. FEATURES AT 10000 FEET AND BELOW ARE DIVERSE AS WELL AND MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION IS GENERATED. THE CANADIAN LOOKS CLOSEST TO POTENTIAL REALITY WITH THE MID LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT CONCENTRATED CLOSER TO THE PARENT LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE BEST RAIN CHANCE ON MONDAY AT 50 PERCENT WITH THIS PERHAPS NEEDING DOUBLING SHOULD MODELS CONVERGE. SUNDAY NIGHT MAY NEED TRIPLE DIGIT POPS AS WELL... BUT WITH MORE OF A GRADIENT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM WEST (HEAVIER) TO EAST (LIGHTER). THE GULF OF MEXICO IS OPEN FOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICS... AND AN EVENT WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL NEAR OR EXCEEDING ONE INCH POSSIBLE. WITH WINDS EXCEEDING FIFTY KNOTS AT 5000 FEET... AND HELICITY APPROACHING 300 M2/S2... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL. RIGHT NOW THE THINKING WOULD BE MONDAY... BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS LOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES ENTERING THE FORECAST FOR THE WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON... INCREASING TO FIFTY PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT... WHILE LEAVING THE EAST AT NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY... THOUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CHANCES MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED SHOULD MODELS CONVERGE CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN SOLUTION. ASSUMING RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF SUNDAY... AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 65 TO 70 DEGREES. MONDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 58 TO 63 OF LOW CONFIDENCE AND TOO WARM IF WIDESPREAD RAINS SETTLE IN FOR THE DAY. MID FIFTIES FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY NIGHT... FALLING TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S TUESDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 looking for the low, i seem to see something in the gulf of alaska right now moving sse? is that the low being forecast to cut off over the SE somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I know a few people have brought up Christmas. Mods please feel free to delete this. I know I had talked to Jack and he seemed ok last year posting a map if it is old...but not sure how SV feels now. Anyways here was the Euro 120 hours out from our Christmas storm last year. It ended up being a lot weaker than the Euro showed/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 looking for the low, i seem to see something in the gulf of alaska right now moving sse? is that the low being forecast to cut off over the SE somewhere? The answer you are looking for is going to be fairly complicated and beyond what I can answer for you. A meteorologist would probably be able to verbalize the answer much better than I can. Short answer no.. What you are looking at in the GoA is not our low, but depending on what you are looking at it could be part of the energy from the northern stream that will be a factor in popping the low.. The energy coming in off the California coast will be a player and also some northern stream energy will come into play. Sorry I can't be more helpful, hopefully someone can give you a good answer. 18Z GFS is rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 GFS out to 102 and no signs of our ULL, looks like a FROPA. Actually it does finally close off right around Charleston at 120.. weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 GFS out to 102 and no signs of our ULL, looks like a FROPA. That's what it appears to be. No cut-off; just snow showers for the mountains and maybe parts of eastern TN. There's a weak coastal low off of NC but can't do much for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 That's what it appears to be. No cut-off; just snow showers for the mountains and maybe parts of eastern TN. There's a weak coastal low off of NC but can't do much for anyone. 18z Gobal, <546 cutoff, around CHS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 18z Gobal, <546 cutoff, around CHS... Ah so it is there. I just now took a look at the later frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 12z ECMWF recap, via wunderground 33hr H5 panel, closed low coming into SoCal, still a good amount of energy inbound, and vorts taking on an almost eyewall type structure... 81 & 111 hrs, full latitude upper air trough, energy getting left back in the Baja, northern stream influx evident through the Plains... Northern stream parcel comes in late, 123 and 132 hrs, close off over AL and a neg tilt thereafter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Another interesting, different, run to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Huge spread in the GFS ensembles after Saturday- this could do almost anything. Almost impossible medium range forecast. qft, so many different outcomes, really amazing for not being long range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 qft, so many different outcomes, really amazing for not being long range... Is there no more NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Is there no more NAM? I looked at the NAM today but it only goes to 84 hours out and that's really not far enough for this storm to see what's going to happen. You could try and extrapolate the model but that's never a good idea and rarely turns out the way you might think. The NAM will become more useful in a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 First rule of thumb: ALWAYS throw out the 18z GFS. The 12z GFS has me thinking this will be your average frontal passage. I'm looking to the 0z GFS this evening for a similar run to the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 First rule of thumb: ALWAYS throw out the 18z GFS. The 12z GFS has me thinking this will be your average frontal passage. I'm looking to the 0z GFS this evening for a similar run to the 12z. It has been stated a few times by respectable mets in our region that the 6Z and 18Z GFS runs are no worse than their 0Z and 12Z counterparts for verification. The posts I'm referring to are buried somewhere but I thought the 18Z was inferior for the longest time just like you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Looks like Joe might see some snows coming up. I'm just hoping the Doc still wants to give N/Middle Ga. a sound rain thumping. I'm ready for some flooding! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It has been stated a few times by respectable mets in our region that the 6Z and 18Z GFS runs are no worse than their 0Z and 12Z counterparts for verification. The posts I'm referring to are buried somewhere but I thought the 18Z was inferior for the longest time just like you. I remember this to be true as well....I thought the same.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 It has been stated a few times by respectable mets in our region that the 6Z and 18Z GFS runs are no worse than their 0Z and 12Z counterparts for verification. The posts I'm referring to are buried somewhere but I thought the 18Z was inferior for the longest time just like you. Agreed. That used to be my thinking before realizing the truth behind it. No need to trash a particular run of a model just because it looked bad and thus should be discounted or simply due to the fact that it's the 18z or whatever. Models do what do and they all have their individual reasons for depicting a future weather event. Sometimes the 6z and 18z runs pick up something that perhaps the 0z and 12z didn't ingest, whatever that reason may be. Time to see what the 0z GFS rolls out for tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Disappointed with the GFS 0UTC run. No ULL. Fingers crossed for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 0z GFS basically looks like a FROPA. Maybe some flake action in the mountains. It's still leaving that piece of energy back in the Baja Peninsula. Onto the Euro... 0z GFS Rainfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Time to call it: time of death-11:26AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Give it a day or two. I bet it will be back in some degree. The models seem to always loose storms about this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 00z GFS is probably a good compromise solution in my view. 00z UKMet has a stout trough, but no closed, cutoff low to the south = frontal passage with a good swath of rain out front, and flakes flying on the backside in E TN / NC Apps (similar to GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 UKMet does end at hr144 with the low winding up tight into Hudson Bay....possibly influencing the pattern to some degree with ridging into S Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 00z Canadian is in with strong cutoff low just west of Atlanta, with 1000mb - 700mb thicknesses supporting some snow in TN and far north AL/GA, then moving east into NC mtns.....gotta love it. I still think tonight's GFS/UKMet are a good compromise solution. Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Canadian would be a frog strangler for the NC Mtns before the frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Canadian didn't deposit the southern piece of energy in Mexico like the GFS / UKMet did....instead, it kept it intact as it treked east, allowing northern stream energy to dive in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Let's just hope the euro holds it together as well, watching my first run of the euro this season!! I'm a winter only model watcher in case that didn't give it away Canadian didn't deposit the southern piece of energy in Mexico like the GFS / UKMet did....instead, it kept it intact as it treked east, allowing northern stream energy to dive in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 So far it looks like the Euro is holding on the the cut-off solution as it brings that system through LA and MS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2011 Share Posted November 24, 2011 Yeah, the Euro keeps the northern stream progressive and it leaves the southern piece floating down south with the cold air diminishing. Looks like it would be moisture-laden on the front side though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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