Lookout Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The May 1992 cutoff wasnt' as strong as this one is progged to be, and was actually warmer aloft. It was 3 contours best I can tell and was a good bit warmer than this is progged ...yet mega snow hit the higher Apps like Roan Mtn and Mt. Pisgah. Some wet flakes even made it to the ground directly under the core of ULL as it headed due north from central GA across GSP and Hendersonville, but since it was so warm aloft (about .5 or 0 at 850) it was mainly 5000 ft snowstorm. This storm cuts off earlier, is colder and doesn't make it that far east at first, so if it occurs as shown on GFS then I'd say snow is a good bet on the nw side right now looks like best chance would still be around TN, Ark. Mo. Bootheel and northern Al and nw GA at first, but the strange thing on this one is how it actually grows colder at the core, I think it goes to 536 heights at one point on GFS and has -4 to -6 air. Also, not all cutoff's can pull really good moisture into it's center, we've had a lot of ULL's lately that didn't do that so well, so each is different depending on where exactly and how its oriented. The May 1992 was a Georgia coastal and retrograded, so it was slam full of moisture from the Atlantic. Its still too far out to pinpoint but obviously we both like ULL's....cause they are super fun to watch. Here's some stuff from my files on the May 1992 storm. This was the storm that dropped 60" on mt Pisgah just sw of AVL and I drove to see it after heading to Roan earlier in the week, It was ending as I got there and melting fast, and was only waist deep when I pulled off the Parkway. I wish I had taken pics back then Good and interested post and thanks for the reply. I did have to laugh at you saying it was "only waist deep" lol Yes, most places are between 3-6C across the south. That doesn't mean we can't see flurries/snow. It doesn't HAVE to be below freezing at the surface to see snow flakes, especially if the rest of the column is cold and saturated enough. There have been known instances where it snows as warm as 39/40 degrees... That's not to say it will accumulate, because it won't. But there very well could be flurries, at least according to the 0Z run of the Euro... I'm not saying it will happen, just something fun to watch as we get closer! Well snow at those types of temps depend on several factors. One is wetbulb and freezing level height. Second is surface dewpoints. 3rd is precip rate, And 4th is just how cold the snow flake is which allows it to survive longer through a warm column of air. A flake that starts at -30c will survive longer through a ABL than a flake that starts at -14c. From what I have read, this is one of the most ignored factors in snowfall forecasts. Plymouth for some stupid reason only has gfs soundings out to day 5 instead of day 10. But looking at the maps even on the 06z run, dewpoints were above freezing in the boundary layer. So even on that run (again based on maps and not actual soundings), it doesn't look quite cold enough in the boundary layer for us. The 12z gfs obviously sucks and need to even get into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 UKMet is similar to its last run - frontal passage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 UKMet is similar to its last run - frontal passage Canadian looks much further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Canadian looks much further north. Looks better than the 12z GFS thats for sure, 536 centered over western TN @ day 5, goes neg thereafter and ends up in western MD, 530'ish at day 6. Still leaving a good bit of energy over northern Mexico at 72hrs though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Well snow at those types of temps depend on several factors. One is wetbulb and freezing level height. Second is surface dewpoints. 3rd is precip rate, And 4th is just how cold the snow flake is which allows it to survive longer through a warm column of air. A flake that starts at -30c will survive longer through a ABL than a flake that starts at -14c. From what I have read, this is one of the most ignored factors in snowfall forecasts. Plymouth for some stupid reason only has gfs soundings out to day 5 instead of day 10. But looking at the maps even on the 06z run, dewpoints were above freezing in the boundary layer. So even on that run (again based on maps and not actual soundings), it doesn't look quite cold enough in the boundary layer for us. The 12z gfs obviously sucks and need to even get into it. Thanks for getting a little more specific than I was able to, Lookout! Silly work getting in the way I'll admit, the 4th thing you mentioned is something I gloss over when forecasting snow... The previous few runs certainly showed promise for a flurry or two for some. Unfortunately, the Euro on wunderground doesn't have all of those variables to analyze That and I don' really have the chance/time to look at the 6/18Z models... Maybe I should do that more haha! Like you said though, the 12Z is certainly something snow-lovers want to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The 12z doesn't even bring the rain that a lot were hoping for (and some don't need). This is probably a more realistic solution and the GFS is coming to reality. Should still be interesting to see what the Euro says though. Last night's was an interesting run as others have said. I'll be watching the Euro today and giving PBP if anyone wants it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 The 12z doesn't even bring the rain that a lot were hoping for (and some don't need). This is probably a more realistic solution and the GFS is coming to reality. Should still be interesting to see what the Euro says though. Last night's was an interesting run as others have said. I'll be watching the Euro today and giving PBP if anyone wants it. Yes, please... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Everybody chill and take a look back at Christmas 2010, models backed off that Thursday, by Saturday we all saw snow. All im saying is, there is a chance (10%-40%) of it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 There's been a few very small cold upper lows that missed Boone to the south, so while they were actually say +4 at 850 , it was snowing in Al, Ga and SC under -2 850 temps A strong closed off low can (and has ) make it snow under it and nw of its track. The new run of GFS doesnt' look much like its previous runs though, so who knows which way ECMWF will go. Good points Robert. Another example would be the April 2-5 1987 Snowstorm. While the southern apps received 1-3 feet of snow( even at lower eles), it was raining to the north in Buffalo and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Everybody chill and take a look back at Christmas 2010, models backed off that Thursday, by Saturday we all saw snow. All im saying is, there is a chance (10%-40%) of it happening. What does that even mean? This isnt even close to the same scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Everybody chill and take a look back at Christmas 2010, models backed off that Thursday, by Saturday we all saw snow. All im saying is, there is a chance (10%-40%) of it happening. Yea but the Christmas storm better climo wise (in late Dec.) and it also was a much less amplified solution compared to what the models were forecasting. The models had people getting buried in a foot plus of snow across many sections of the SE. It then came in with a much more realistic solution about 3 days out. So just my guess would be like others have said we get something in between. Our best hope right now I would think is to get some backside flurry action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 12Z GFS is disappointing for my area. But hey it's only 1 model run out of many. so i'm not too concerned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I take a day-off from the board and look what happens! Now, we have a possible cut-off low w/ heavy rain and snow possible somewhere in the region. It's pretty crazy how full the streams are right now. Again, I always remember JB talking about cold heading for where it has rained the most during fall. Well, this has been as sloppy a fall as I can remember. What that translates to for winter weather, I don't know. I'm still pretty nervoust about the potential for a warm winter. A possible good sign for next week's storm is tha the NAO ensembles are taking a bit of a dip/dive in the near future along w/ the AO. The NAO takes a look at negative territory while the AO goes neutral. I remember some conversation around the Halloween storm about the AO taking a dip that might have signalled the potential for that storm. I wonder if those might not be a signal for the potential upcoming storm. Typhoon Tip was referring to this. He discussed it again a day or two ago in the NE forums. He mentioned it's not just a switch from pos. to neg or to strongly neg. he looks at but also the magnitude change in the SD's of the index that can infer a shot of cold air. This I believe is a good example with a change of -4 SD's going from a forecasted +4 SD's to neutral (maybe even -1). The MJO matches up to the same phases it was traveling through back in October on the same numerical dates along with the NAO and AO matching the same pattern...going from positive to neutral during the same time period. so this will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Tip could obviously expand more on this to correct or add to my thoughts on his theory but I don't know if he read the SE forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 @54 the Euro is a little stronger with the southern energy it looks like and is slower with both parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 @72 it looks close to the 12z GFS...we'll see where the Dr. goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 @108 Euro isn't looking good to my untrained eye. Looks like it's yet another different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 @126 our ULL is nowhere to be found. This run of the Euro is not good for those wanting snow . @132 looks like the low is popping at the bottom panhandle of western FL. ..looks like alright rain for parts of GA and NC though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 @108 Euro isn't looking good to my untrained eye. Looks like it's yet another different solution. Very progressive with the northern branch, surface low gets cranking over the GL's around 84 hrs, wraps up, and exits into SE Canada. Bunch of junk left in the trunk over the Baja, yet it still attempts to pop a weak, 556 close off @ H5 over AL, 126hrs. @126 our ULL is nowhere to be found. This run of the Euro is not good for those wanting snow . @132 looks like the low is popping at the bottom panhandle of western FL. ..looks like alright rain for parts of GA and NC though Is that a sliver of <0C 850's centered over Pensacola? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 @138 the moisture really gets cranking in central GA...might be some flooding issues there if the Euro verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Very progressive with the northern branch, surface low gets cranking over the GL's around 84 hrs, wraps up, and exits into SE Canada. Bunch of junk left in the trunk over the Baja, yet it still attempts to pop a weak, 556 close off @ H5 over AL, 126hrs. Is that a sliver of <0C 850's centered over Pensacola? lol yep. Then it quickly goes POOF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 euro is giving most of GA 2+ inches of QPF with a large spot in central and northern GA getting 3 - 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 lol yep. Then it quickly goes POOF! Only to reappear south of Macon at 144 @ 156, <552dm H5 centered over the eastern half of SC, broad 1008mb surface reflection along the eastern seaboard, centered near ILM. @ 168, <1000mb low off the VA Capes, no longer closed off at H5, 850's would support SN along the 95 corridor in the MA, surface temps not so much. What a train-wreck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 This possible event made me think of the Nov 21 2006 event in Southern SC were some saw several inches of snow in a rather small area. However there was a much larger area that saw a dusting in a area that lucky to see snow at all in any given winter much less several days before Thanksgiving. Ironically here several hundred miles to the north we had temps in the low 50's with light rain that day. http://www.erh.noaa....HS_11222006.txt was going to make the same comment this morning but was on my mobile and couldn't find the info. that was a fascinating storm for sure, we were wondering all day if it would make it into the Myrtle area, I think some flurries got as far north as Georgetown, from local reports if i remember correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 euro is giving most of GA 2+ inches of QPF with a large spot in central and northern GA getting 3 - 4 inches. I'd take that in a heatbeat over an inch of melty slush! Now if the back end looks interesting with a secondary low spinning up, I'll be ready once the rain needs are met. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 The U/L is still well W of the CA Coast. My hunch as we have seen here in TX with these disturbances so far this fall season, guidance will offer differing solutions until the upper low gets a bit closer to CA. What I have noticed today is the op globals are tending to leave a bit too much energy over/near the Baja. Another 24 hours or so should see the models begin to lock on a solution, although timing issues may not be ironed out until Friday/Saturday. Good Luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 FFC is not backing down yet... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 153 PM EST WED NOV 23 2011 .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SPREADING IN OVER THE REGION SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...STILL PROGGED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY TIME- FRAME AS INSTABILITIES STILL APPEAR TOO WEAK. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LONG-WAVE TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY TIME-FRAME. HOWEVER... STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND ADDED LIFT FROM STALLED UPPER LOW SHOULD HOLD A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTH GEORGIA MONDAY- MONDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. MODEL THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS SOMETIME EARLY MONDAY MORNING... BUT ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NIL OR VERY LIGHT AT BEST CONSIDERING THE GROUND WILL BE PLENTY WARM AND LOW TEMPS HOLD MORE IN THE MID 30S. IF THE UPPER LOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE PERSIST...COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AGAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Still a large amount of uncertainty here- the Ukie has a sharp but progressive trough- the GFS ensembles are all over the place but quite a few have a closed low, but farther north: Bottom line- still along ways to go here but it does seem the chances of a snow event in GA/AL have decreased, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 FFC is not backing down yet... That comes off as a shocker... It'll be interesting to see what really evolves from this. Honestly, I hope we do get at least some heavy rain to chip away some of this drought were in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Typhoon Tip was referring to this. He discussed it again a day or two ago in the NE forums. He mentioned it's not just a switch from pos. to neg or to strongly neg. he looks at but also the magnitude change in the SD's of the index that can infer a shot of cold air. This I believe is a good example with a change of -4 SD's going from a forecasted +4 SD's to neutral (maybe even -1). The MJO matches up to the same phases it was traveling through back in October on the same numerical dates along with the NAO and AO matching the same pattern...going from positive to neutral during the same time period. so this will be interesting to see how it shakes out. Tip could obviously expand more on this to correct or add to my thoughts on his theory but I don't know if he read the SE forum. Hadn't read Typhoon Tip's comments over the past few weeks, but over the years I've read much of what he has written on the main board, good stuff for sure. As a matter of fact, Hickory had mentioned that the AO will often preceed the NAO in dipping and that sometimes may signal a storm - think we were discussing the Halloween event. The 12z GFS(operational) seems a little less optimistic on this, but that is just one run. Haven't looked at the ensembles yet. I appreciate your comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Here is todays GSP long term.....Seems they are hedging their bets on winter weather til some more model runs are in. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE FOR DIFFICULT DECISIONS IN DETAILS OF FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAVE BASICALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT 500 MB TROUGH AFFECTING THE AREA. GFS BEGINS SUNDAY WITH A DEEP CUTOFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH TROUGH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. ECMWF DEPICTS A SHARP OPEN WAVE FROM WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. EASTERN PROGRESSION OF EITHER SYSTEM INCREASES QG FORCING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS NARROW BUT RATHER DEEP MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD IN SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. THUS POPS WILL BE INCREASED ON SUNDAY. ECMWF DROPS CUTOFF INTO SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY WHILE NORTHERN STREAM PORTION OF 500 MB TROUGH SHEARS OFF TO THE EAST. GFS MAINTAINS DEEP TROUGH ALL THE WAY FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO GEORGIA. EITHER WAY... THE CWA IS IN SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWERING OVER THE AREA. ECMWF WRAPS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE GFS SIGNALS MOSTLY A NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW EVENT DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS ITS CUTOFF DRIFTS EAST. WITH SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION AND POSITION OF PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURES... CHANCE POPS WILL BE CONTINUED INTO TUESDAY TAPERING OFF BY WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH MODELS SHOW DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWING EVENTUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TROUGH. LOWER THICKNESSES OVER MOUNTAINS WILL PRODUCE MIXED RAIN AND SNOW OR MOSTLY SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SUNDAY WILL LOWER TO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S ON SUNDAY WILL COOL TO THE 30S DURING THE FIRST OF THE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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