DaculaWeather Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Update from the Atlanta NWS: AS FOR THE SNOW THREAT... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG DRY SLOT OVER THE STATE...WITH THE DEEPER WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE STILL BACK OVER MISSISSIPPI AND WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE PROGRESSION EASTWARD WILL BE SLOW... AS OUR TIMING TOOL SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE NOT PUSHING OVER NW GA UNTIL AROUND 5 AM... THEN SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. MODEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES STILL SUPPORT ANY FALLING PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW TOWARD MORNING WHEN THE MOISTURE ARRIVES... HOWEVER SURFACE AND GROUND TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. STILL COULD SEE SOME MINOR/LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY SURFACES OF MAINLY NORTH GA...AND MOSTLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS... BUT EVEN THIS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS AT BEST CONSIDERING LIMITED MOISTURE AND WARM SURFACE/GROUND TEMPS. WILL STICK WITH CURRENT FORECAST AND HOLD OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW... JUST TOO MANY FACTORS SUPPORTING LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Robert, are you thinking the RUC has the timing of the moisture arriving pretty much nailed? Looks like about 9-10 am here. yea, looks like NAM and has been pretty consistent. You guys have a better shot of snow than here though thanks to timing. But oddly the RUC increases lift toward here tomorrow afternoon as the system pivots sharply due north, so that may be enough to bring flakes to the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Okay, I must admit I am a little jealous here. Congrats on the snow out west. If I get another heavy rain shower I think I am going to take this flood warning serious from the reports I am seeing just to my west near Appalachian State. I really want some snow showers Tuesday night in the Wilkesboro area. Looks like we could run into a problem Wednesday morning across the Carolinas if temps drop near freezing with wet roads. Anyone know the best timing for light snow to occur for north-west North Carolina? Hopefully after sunset since I am further north right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Statement as of 9:59 PM EST on November 28, 2011 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am EST Wednesday above 3500 feet... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Winter Weather Advisory above 3500 feet for snow... which is in effect from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am EST Wednesday. * Locations... elevations above 3500 feet in Yancey... Mitchell... and Avery counties. * Hazards... light snow accumulations followed by freezing temperatures. * Timing... scattered snow showers will develop from the southwest across the northern North Carolina mountains on Tuesday. Coverage will increase through the day before gradually paring back toward the Tennessee border overnight Tuesday night. * Accumulations... 1 to 2 inches above 3500 feet... with isolated 2 to 4 inch totals at the highest peaks. * Impacts... slippery roadways. * Temperatures... highs in the low to mid 30s Tuesday... with temperatures falling into the mid 20s Tuesday night. * Winds... southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph early... becoming northwest Tuesday evening. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow will cause travel difficulties. Be prepared for slippery roads and briefly limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Statement as of 9:59 PM EST on November 28, 2011 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am EST Wednesday above 3500 feet... The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a Winter Weather Advisory above 3500 feet for snow... which is in effect from 6 am Tuesday to 6 am EST Wednesday. * Locations... elevations above 3500 feet in Yancey... Mitchell... and Avery counties. * Hazards... light snow accumulations followed by freezing temperatures. * Timing... scattered snow showers will develop from the southwest across the northern North Carolina mountains on Tuesday. Coverage will increase through the day before gradually paring back toward the Tennessee border overnight Tuesday night. * Accumulations... 1 to 2 inches above 3500 feet... with isolated 2 to 4 inch totals at the highest peaks. I'll raise you a SW NC Winter Weather Advisory... SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...WAYNESVILLE 959 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 3500 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TUESDAY NIGHT. * LOCATIONS...ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3500 FEET IN THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. * HAZARDS...LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOLLOWED BY FREEZING TEMPERATURES. * TIMING...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE TENNESSEE BORDER TUESDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 3500 FEET...WITH LOCALIZED 2 TO 4 INCH SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE HIGHEST RIDGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 the latest RUC at 18 hr and NAM match up nicely for tomorrow. The slug of developing rh associated with the next major vort will pivot across Al and Ga and into the western Carolinas by tomorrow afternoon. Question is for the Upstate and CLT and HKY areas, what type of precip will this be? This may be the third season in a row I've seen pre-Christmas snow here. I've been holding out hope for some flurries...it would look like per the NAM we would have a shot. I know the NAM isn't the best to use but I'm hoping as well we get a pre Christmas snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Just pushed out my 02Z SmartCast output, Right now show areas around McKeller-Sipes area and Memphis areas with snow accumulation through 14Z of 2.1-2.5" of snow. Temps hugging wright around the 32/33 zone for most of the night. Highlighted enhanced precip from 05-08Z. Think the temperatures will help limit the accumulation as stated in the advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Forecast snowfall for GSP area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 I've been holding out hope for some flurries...it would look like per the NAM we would have a shot. I know the NAM isn't the best to use but I'm hoping as well we get a pre Christmas snow. NAM has done pretty good with this overall once it caught on to the cutoff, and has been consistently showing things like that strong 2nd vort coming through Al and GA overnight and early tomorrow, and then our way. Now the RUC is the one to watch , so far its still showing the strong vort turning north about the time it comes our way so that might add some "umph" to the precip rates, but still doesn't look like anything but token flakes (if its flakes). The timing is bad for us, around 1 to 3pm start time . I'm sure some folks between AVL to CLT will have a variety of types on precip tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Forecast snowfall for GSP area. Wow I don't like the looks of that map....so close yet so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow I don't like the looks of that map....so close yet so far! the moistures coming in from the south tomorrow, so the city should get in on it this time. I won't be surprised to see an inch downtown from this on the grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 the moistures coming in from the south tomorrow, so the city should get in on it this time. I won't be surprised to see an inch downtown from this on the grass. So glad I am off tomm. Can't wait, would love to see snow on the ground in Nov. even if it is a trace. A lot of due paying has been going on in Buncombe county over the last 10 winters & the last 2 have been the repayment. A Nov. snow would be icing on the cake. I know you enjoy the before more than the during & after Robert, but thanks for your effort on the board. It just wouldn't be the same without you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Colder air pushing into North Carolina from the south-west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Wow, 12 degrees warmer in Charleston, WV than in Charleston, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Pretty impressive 5 standard deviation positive temperature anomaly at 250 hPa associated with this cutoff low, associated with tropopause folding where stratospheric air (which is warmer than the minimum temperature near the top of the troposphere) is getting down to 500-600mb. This is certainly a dynamic system! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 ASHEVILLE,N.C. -- Emergency officials are keeping an eye on a logjam in the French Broad River in Transylvania County that could cause flooding there and in nearby Henderson County. The Asheville Citizen-Times reports that Henderson County Emergency Services Director Rocky Hyder says weather forecasters expect the logjam to make the river rise more rapidly than normal. The National Weather Service forecast calls for up to four more inches of rain through Monday night in Henderson County. The weather service has issued a flash flood warning for Henderson and Transylvania counties. Hyder said the logjam near the Transylvania County Airport stretches across the river. It's believed beavers toppled the trees, and Hyder said the state Department of Environment & Natural Resources is working on a plan for removing it. Read more: http://www.wxii12.co...l#ixzz1f4DA0CNq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 06Z SmartCast looking at areas around the Popular Bluff, Jonesborro, and McKeller Sipes still expecting snow accumulation around 2-4" through 17Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Not too much change from the past 12 hours or so from the Peachtree City office: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Well, we finally got down to a 540 4 looper. Not bad AT ALL for this time of year. And the models got it right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 yea, looks like NAM and has been pretty consistent. You guys have a better shot of snow than here though thanks to timing. But oddly the RUC increases lift toward here tomorrow afternoon as the system pivots sharply due north, so that may be enough to bring flakes to the ground here. When I lived in PA, the RUC and SREF were good models for short term (12 hours in) storm feature consensus, such as banding locations. I like the NAM at 24 hours, but it isn't always right at 48 hours, which is what most people assume as the cutoff for NAM quality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 looks like the band is beginng to pivot up to the southern Apps, NC mtns and ne Ga, western SC region right now. Should be snow in the mountains and AVL but a rain/snow mix in the Upstate by noon and spreading into the foothills and western piedmont of NC, probably mostly rain there. But the mtns may pick up a dusting in the valleys to a couple inches higher up if the band develops solidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 looks like the band is beginng to pivot up to the southern Apps, NC mtns and ne Ga, western SC region right now. Should be snow in the mountains and AVL but a rain/snow mix in the Upstate by noon and spreading into the foothills and western piedmont of NC, probably mostly rain there. But the mtns may pick up a dusting in the valleys to a couple inches higher up if the band develops solidly. Damn just bad timing. I was hoping we could get a few token flakes. Still holding out hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Damn just bad timing. I was hoping we could get a few token flakes. Still holding out hope. it just looks a little too warm around here. I doubt our temps will go down anymore even with precip today. Its possible some wet flakes here and there once it comes down with any good intensity, but don't go out of your way to load up on bread/milk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 Temp up to 45.7 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 updated snow forecast map from GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 it just looks a little too warm around here. I doubt our temps will go down anymore even with precip today. Its possible some wet flakes here and there once it comes down with any good intensity, but don't go out of your way to load up on bread/milk. just a bit too warm here as well - did finally see some flakes but most was rain until a little while ago. get this again in a couple of weeks and hopefully we'd be just that few degrees colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 If we were cold enough for all this moisture to be snow, I think the board would have exploded by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 the moistures coming in from the south tomorrow, so the city should get in on it this time. I won't be surprised to see an inch downtown from this on the grass. Haha! always ahead of the game! Notice the times. Great job Robert, looks like you are starting this winter where you left off last winter. AS OF 1030 AM EST...FORECAST TRENDS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HIGH ELEVATION STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL THAT WE HAVE IN THE GRIDS...I DID INCLUDE BUNCOMBE...MADISON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THE VALLEY LOCATIONS SHOULD ONLY SEE A DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS AN INCH ON GRASSY SURFACES...SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AROUND THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY COULD CERTAINLY PICK UP 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A LITTLE SNOW MIX OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...BUT THIS WILL MAINLY BE A NOVELTY. IN FACT...QPF IS LOOKING LOWER NOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted November 29, 2011 Share Posted November 29, 2011 From Raleigh. Looks like there is a Snow Lover in the office! : .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --AS OF 237 PM TODAY... PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-UPPER LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WILL QUICKLY MOVE NE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A BAND OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE AREA ESPECIALLY BEFORE 00Z/THIS EVENING. WE WILL CARRY LIKELY POP BUT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.10 OF AN INCH. IT APPEARS THAT ONLY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. IN ADDITION... THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE 40S COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 32-35 RANGE. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT EVAPORATIVE COOLING PROCESSES NEEDED TO BRING DOWN COLDER AIR ALOFT FOR SNOW FLAKES TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE. IF THE RAIN BECOMES LOCALLY HEAVIER IN SHOWERS... WE MAY HAVE AN ICE PELLET OR TWO... BUT NOT WORTH THE MENTION. PARTIAL THICKNESSES REALLY SHOW THIS WARM BOUNDARY LAYER IN THAT THE LATEST NAM/GFS/EC INDICATE PARTIALS IN THE 1000/850 LAYER NO LOWER THAN 1305M AT WINSTON-SALEM AT 00Z/THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST AND SOUTH... 1315 TO 1320M IS FORECAST TO BE MORE COMMON. ALOFT... IT WILL BE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH WITH PARTIALS IN THE 850/700 MB LAYER FORECAST IN THE 1515 TO 1525M RANGE WEST TO EAST. INTERESTINGLY... THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RAPIDLY REDUCE AFTER 00Z/THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT / PVA ENDS.. AS THIS HAPPENS... THE 1000/850 THICKNESS DROP RAPIDLY... AND THE 850-700 THICKNESS BEGIN TO WARM (UPPER LOW PULLING OUT)... BUT STILL IN THE 1530-1540 RANGE BY 03Z/THIS EVENING IN THE NW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A MID-UPPER LOW TRACK TO OUR WEST AND NORTH... KEEPING US ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE TRACK FOR ANY REAL WINTERY CONCERNS. HOWEVER JUST FOR FUN... THE AFOREMENTIONED INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT THERE MAY BE A SNOW FLAKE OR TWO (FOR SNOW LOVERS) IN THE FAR NW PIEDMONT BEFORE THE SHOWERS END THIS EVENING... BUT NO ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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