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Nov. 27th - Nov. 29th Upper Level Low


LithiaWx

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WSW up for N MS, SW TN...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN

417 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM BECOMING MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF

THE MIDSOUTH...

.A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS

AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER TO A

RAIN SNOW MIX...THEN ALL SNOW THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR MOVES

OVER THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD FALL ACROSS SOUTHERN

WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. PRECIPITATION WILL

TAPER OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST.

MSZ002>006-009-014>017-TNZ053-089>092-290630-

/O.UPG.KMEG.WS.A.0003.111129T0000Z-111129T1800Z/

/O.NEW.KMEG.WS.W.0006.111129T0000Z-111129T1800Z/

MARSHALL-BENTON MS-TIPPAH-ALCORN-TISHOMINGO-PRENTISS-UNION-

PONTOTOC-LEE MS-ITAWAMBA-CHESTER-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-MCNAIRY-HARDIN-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CORINTH...IUKA...BOONEVILLE...

NEW ALBANY...TUPELO...SOMERVILLE...BOLIVAR...SAVANNAH

417 PM CST MON NOV 28 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST

TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.

* TIMING...6 PM CST THIS EVENING TO NOON CST TUESDAY. THE PERIOD

OF HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT UNTIL 6

AM CST TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY DISRUPT TRAVEL ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. BE

PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND

USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW

ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN

EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...

FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

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Why is the band of snow/rain in west tennessee having such a hard time rotating south into Mississippi? Most locations there have yet to see any snow.

SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.5-1 INCH PER HR /LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS/ ARE

ANTICIPATED OVER PORTIONS OF WRN TN...FAR NERN AR...AND THE MO

BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING.

A CLOSED DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NRN MS /PER

RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOP/ WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL

HRS...WITH AN EMBEDDED VORT LOBE ROTATING SWWD ALONG THE NWRN

PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE MID-MS RIVER

VALLEY. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH

WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WITH WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE OCCLUDED

LOW...WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO 0.5-1 INCH PER HR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY/SFC OBS INDICATE A LARGE SWATH OF

PRECIPITATION /PRIMARILY RAINFALL ATTM/ OVER THE REGION...WITH

ISOLATED LOCATIONS REPORTING SNOW AS OF 2100Z /E.G. KMKL/ WITHIN

COLDER LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES IN PROXIMITY TO THE

DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE. WITH TIME...NAM/GFS POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS

INDICATE A TRANSITION TO SNOWFALL IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR OVER

ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF WRN TN...AND EVENTUALLY TO AREAS IMMEDIATELY

W OF THE MS RIVER...WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS.

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It really is. I've been waiting to see if it might strengthen a little more before moving out. One thing I have noticed is that the size has grown larger. Not sure how this will work but here is the 850's and 500's merged together.

What kind of impact does this have on us if it gets bigger? Deeper, less strength? Just wondering if it will have an impact on our weather overnight and into the next 24 hours. Thanks! :sun:

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I'm not really sure who or what to believe. BMX says up to an inch of snow possible 15 miles to my west and FFC is skeptical there will be any accumulation here. Wonder who is right ? There's a Winter Weather Advisory all the way south of I-20 in East AL and yet no Advisories in GA ? I don't get it. Not even the counties in Extreme NW GA are under an Advisory.

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I'm not really sure who or what to believe. BMX says up to an inch of snow possible 15 miles to my west and FFC is skeptical there will be any accumulation here. Wonder who is right ? There's a Winter Weather Advisory all the way south of I-20 in East AL and yet no Advisories in GA ? I don't get it. Not even the counties in Extreme NW GA are under an Advisory.

In the past FFC takes a wait and see attitude when it comes to posting WWA's in GA. They stay on the fence just long enough to make sure they get it right.

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In the past FFC takes a wait and see attitude when it comes to posting WWA's in GA. They stay on the fence just long enough to make sure they get it right.

Can't say that I blame them. They'll throw one out once they make sure this thing is gonna pan out like the models say. If nothing else the northern parts will get a WWA.

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i really don't like the looks of the dewpoint. Any chance of that falling anytime in the near future... rain has stopped hour or so ago. really dont think we got much maybe a little over inch at best

dewpoint 40 temp 43.7

Here is a loop of the Dew Points. Notice how the past few hours they have been dropping quickly behind the front into the 30s.

Dew Point Loop

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I'm not really sure who or what to believe. BMX says up to an inch of snow possible 15 miles to my west and FFC is skeptical there will be any accumulation here. Wonder who is right ? There's a Winter Weather Advisory all the way south of I-20 in East AL and yet no Advisories in GA ? I don't get it. Not even the counties in Extreme NW GA are under an Advisory.

We really covered this topic in depth last year during the winter storms, not sure why we keep having to rehash this topic. They're conservative.

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I'm going on my first snow chase of the season tomorrow in Western NC. Anyone want to predict where I can find the most accumulation. I'm thinking about going towards Maggie Valley, but I'm wondering if SW of there might be better.

just sw of there, "balsam" or 441 thru the park. If that's closed you can take 64 to just west of Franklin, that should be a good spot too.
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i really don't like the looks of the dewpoint. Any chance of that falling anytime in the near future... rain has stopped hour or so ago. really dont think we got much maybe a little over inch at best

dewpoint 40 temp 43.7

I was just going to post that my dew point and temp had been tracking together all afternoon but around 7:35 the dew point started falling faster. On my opening page are current conditions and it shows the rate of change for temp and dew point. Right now temp is falling 1.0 per hour and the dew point is falling 2.0 degrees per hour.

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I'm going on my first snow chase of the season tomorrow in Western NC. Anyone want to predict where I can find the most accumulation. I'm thinking about going towards Maggie Valley, but I'm wondering if SW of there might be better.

Where are you starting out from? If in the western upstate I’d head to highlands,nc. You can get up to 4,500 feet there which will be well below freezing all of tomorrow.

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the latest RUC at 18 hr and NAM match up nicely for tomorrow. The slug of developing rh associated with the next major vort will pivot across Al and Ga and into the western Carolinas by tomorrow afternoon. Question is for the Upstate and CLT and HKY areas, what type of precip will this be? This may be the third season in a row I've seen pre-Christmas snow here.

post-38-0-43404600-1322533758.gif

post-38-0-00824200-1322533768.gif

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the latest RUC at 18 hr and NAM match up nicely for tomorrow. The slug of developing rh associated with the next major vort will pivot across Al and Ga and into the western Carolinas by tomorrow afternoon. Question is for the Upstate and CLT and HKY areas, what type of precip will this be? This may be the third season in a row I've seen pre-Christmas snow here.

post-38-0-43404600-1322533758.gif

post-38-0-00824200-1322533768.gif

Robert, are you thinking the RUC has the timing of the moisture arriving pretty much nailed? Looks like about 9-10 am here.

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