dsaur Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yep the Metro region got sandwiched it looks like. Yeah, I've even had sun poking through the thin spots recently. But it is down to 49 here, and the Experiment station is a few degrees lower, so now we wait on the pivot I still love a good cut off even when they spite me. I knew watching how ragged it was down here last night late, that it could turn out to be another Lee, at least for part of the action. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Surprising afternoon update from FFC: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 102 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1145 AM EST MON NOV 28 2011/ UPDATE... QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR NEAR TERM TRENDS IN ALL FIELDS. ALSO INDICATED STEADY OR FALLING TEMPERATURES TODAY. FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE BUT MAY BE SLOW TO PUSH NORTH INTO FAR NORTHERN AND NE COUNTIES AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE AND DEEPEN OVER NORTHCENTRAL GA. IN THIS SAME AREA...RAIN STILL EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS APPROACHING 3 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH STILL LOOKS GOOD...HAVE UPDATED FFA WITH LATEST THINKING. POTENTIAL FOR MIX/CHANGEOVER TO SNOW STILL HIGH. THICKNESSES AND 850MB TEMPS ALL INDICATE SNOW BUT AS WITH MANY STACKED UPPER LOWS LIKE THIS...STEEP LAPSE RATES IN LOWEST 200MB WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH OF THE TEMP PROFILE BELOW ZERO IN THAT LAYER. CONVECTION HAS DONE THIS IN THE PAST AND WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS. 06Z AND 12Z MODEL DATA DO NOT INDICATE MUCH TRADITIONAL /I.E. CONVECTIVE OR GRAVITATIONAL/ INSTABILITY...BUT COULD BE A CASE WHERE CSI /CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY/ COULD PRODUCE SLANTWISE UPDRAFTS SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH TO GENERATE LARGE DENDRITES WITH GREATER FALL SPEEDS. LARGE DENDRITES WOULD ALSO GREATLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL DIABATIC COOLING. ANALYSIS OF CSI INGREDIENTS ON 06Z AND 12Z MODEL DATA AGAIN DO NOT SHOW MUCH CASE FOR THIS EXCEPT AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING WHEN IT MAY STILL BE TOO WARM IN THE NEAR SFC LAYER. TO SUMMARIZE...BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY/CSI AND ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE TO OUR WEST OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AND PARTS OF NRN AL. WILL REISSUE SPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LATEST THOUGHTS. SNELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Its been that way here almost all year- the ATL area screw hole is alive and well, especially at my house. I have not had over 4" in a month since June. If I get less than 3" through Dec. I will have had less than 40" for the year. Wow! Going into this event we had an 8"+ surplus for the year. Looks like we have added quite a bit to that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Its been that way here almost all year- the ATL area screw hole is alive and well, especially at my house. I have not had over 4" in a month since June. If I get less than 3" through Dec. I will have had less than 40" for the year. 12z RUC shows another good band moving through in a few hours that gives ATL another ~.75" and another 1-2"+ up here in the mountains. Lets hope that materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wow! Going into this event we had an 8"+ surplus for the year. Looks like we have added quite a bit to that here. Yeah, for some of us the drought is still in full sway. I've had less than 3" in the last 32 days, and that has been the best month of days in a long, long time. I was really counting on this system to get started on getting well. T Edit: I'm up to a half inch now for this system....and so it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 12z RUC shows another good band moving through in a few hours that gives ATL another ~.75" and another 1-2"+ up here in the mountains. Lets hope that materializes. Nope- we are done until the upper low stuff later tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 been busy at work today and am trying to catch up, and noticed that the forecast now has up to an inch of snow here tomorrow lol. still raining pretty hard on and off with gusty winds. temps holding in the low 50s so it better drop fast guess i should start paying a bit more attention to the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nope- we are done until the upper low stuff later tonight: hmm. I must've had some old data or somethin then. Which sucks cause I got all excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 235 PM EST MON NOV 28 2011 ...CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NORTH GEORGIA... ...WINTRY MIX EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... ...AROUND AN INCH ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS... NOW THE BIG QUESTION OF IN WHAT FORM WILL THIS PRECIPITATION FALL. AS MENTIONED...ALOFT IT WILL VERY COLD AND MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW WITH PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND TOP DOWN METHODOLOGY ALL INDICATING SUCH. AS FOR THE MODEL SNOW PROJECTIONS...THE NAM12 IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE...PAINTING A SWATH OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND AN INCH AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ATLANTA METRO. THE PROBLEM WITH THIS IS THAT THE SAME MODEL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IN ROUGHLY THE SAME ENVIRONMENT TO THE WEST WHERE PREDOMINANTLY JUST RAIN HAS FALLEN TODAY. WHICH BRINGS US TO THE LIMITING FACTORS WHICH WILL BE THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS AND GROUND TEMPERATURES. FEEL SNOW WILL MIX WITH RAIN JUST OFF THE SURFACE AND IT WILL TAKE MODERATE INTENSITY TO ALLOW FOR ALL SNOW TO REACH THE GROUND. ONCE IT REACHES THE GROUND...WITH SOIL TEMPS IN THE 50S...EXPECT MOST IF NOT ALL TO MELT UPON IMPACT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME NORTHERN TIER WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT FURTHER SOUTH WHERE BRIEF BUSTS OF MODERATE SN OCCUR FOR THERE TO BE A TEMPORARY DUSTING BUT SHORT OF ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF ANY CONDITIONAL SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY IN THE MODELS TO JUSTIFY ANY HEAVIER SNOW AMOUNTS. sounds like FFC is waffling a tad.. They took the rain/snow mix out of the point forecasts for some areas around the metro for tonight. But they held them in place for tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 They just issed a new special weather statement...running across tv now on twc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Very odd, no sign form the NWS site, but my local PD just issued this email out. Winter Weather advisory? https://local.nixle.com/alert/4758082/?sub_id=202276 *Winter weather advisory** in effect for **the City of Marietta** area for Tuesday morningThere is a winter weather advisory for the City of Marietta for Tuesday, November 29, 2011. A snow/rain mixture is supposed to turn to snow for the morning of Tuesday, November 29, 2011. Although no accumulation is expected temperatures are expected to remain low for the entire day. Expect the possibility of icy roads and sidewalks, especially in areas that are lightly travelled. Please use caution and keep a safe distance between cars while driving to allow extra distance for braking. Stay tuned to your local radio and tv stations for updates on the weather as it develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Snow already coming down big fat flakes and sticking now in Jackson,TN Snow Pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Snow already coming down big fat flakes and sticking now in Jackson,TN Snow Pic Those look like some monster flakes. Note how quickly it has accumulated too, despite the warm ground temps and it being the middle of the afternoon. Just goes to show you, once again, that snow can accumulate even with warm ground temps if the snow is coming down at a good clip. And too boot, the temp is only 34. Speaking of those temps, a couple hours ago when they had rain it was 38 with dp of 36, so a decent temp drop. Also of note..they aren't even under the coldest part of the low. 850s are only around -1c per ruc and 925 temps are close to or slightly above freezing with the 19z run. Gives a bit more hope for a changeover. Starting to see some upper 30s in parts of alabama so a changeover there probably isn't too far away. 850s and 925 temps are colder..so it should happen pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Guess it could start snowing here in Memphis shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I have a feeling that warm soil temperatures are going to severely limit snowfall accumulations in some places. If it comes down heavily enough (as in that picture from Tennessee), it won't matter much, but if it doesn't, the snow may have a lot of trouble sticking to anything but elevated surfaces. It's always an unfortunate problem we have this time of year... Warm soil temperatures will also melt the snow from beneath after it accumulates, so the snow will melt quicker. Soil temperatures are in the 45-50 degree range in much of the area and soil temperatures are even warmer as you head eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wow, 3-6" of snow for parts of MS and TN. That's Winter Storm Warming criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Those look like some monster flakes. Note how quickly it has accumulated too, despite the warm ground temps and it being the middle of the afternoon. Just goes to show you, once again, that snow can accumulate even with warm ground temps if the snow is coming down at a good clip. And too boot, the temp is only 34. Speaking of those temps, a couple hours ago when they had rain it was 38 with dp of 36, so a decent temp drop. Also of note..they aren't even under the coldest part of the low. 850s are only around -1c per ruc and 925 temps are close to or slightly above freezing with the 19z run. Gives a bit more hope for a changeover. Starting to see some upper 30s in parts of alabama so a changeover there probably isn't too far away. 850s and 925 temps are colder..so it should happen pretty soon. Already reports of snow in NW Alabama and now in Birmingham as well looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Snow already coming down big fat flakes and sticking now in Jackson,TN Snow Pic Wow! Awesome! I have a feeling that warm soil temperatures are going to severely limit snowfall accumulations in some places. If it comes down heavily enough (as in that picture from Tennessee), it won't matter much, but if it doesn't, the snow may have a lot of trouble sticking to anything but elevated surfaces. It's always an unfortunate problem we have this time of year... Warm soil temperatures will also melt the snow from beneath after it accumulates, so the snow will melt quicker. Soil temperatures are in the 45-50 degree range in much of the area and soil temperatures are even warmer as you head eastward. If it's snowing like that the soil won't have much of a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 If it's snowing like that the soil won't have much of a chance. True enough. The timing of the even should also insure that most of the snow falls at night, which is a big deal in the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I have a feeling that warm soil temperatures are going to severely limit snowfall accumulations in some places. If it comes down heavily enough (as in that picture from Tennessee), it won't matter much, but if it doesn't, the snow may have a lot of trouble sticking to anything but elevated surfaces. It's always an unfortunate problem we have this time of year... Warm soil temperatures will also melt the snow from beneath after it accumulates, so the snow will melt quicker. Soil temperatures are in the 45-50 degree range in much of the area and soil temperatures are even warmer as you head eastward. I think that's the forecasted soil temps, these are the actual soil temps. http://syngenta.meridian-enviro.com/mapserv.cgi?map=/local-project/www/syngenta.meridian-enviro.com/maps/na-5day.map&mode=map&mapext%3D-375900.963333691%202842344.4674816%203151876.79116075%205227122.22951984&mapsize%3D500%20338 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Skycam from Abc33/40 in Birmingham Metro Big Fat Flakes have started their also. Skycam link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Skycam from Abc33/40 in Birmingham Metro Big Fat Flakes have started their also. Skycam link That's a little town in NW AL called Haleyville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Skycam from Abc33/40 in Birmingham Metro Big Fat Flakes have started their also. Skycam link That town is considerably NW of Birmingham. Google Maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 That's a little town in NW AL called Haleyville. Okay my bad. Still thats from the same band rotating in Nrn Bama now as the low strengthens. This makes things look a good bit more interesting for N. GA tonight as this should rotate in during the overnight and early morning prime time hours. So if its coming down and sticking like that during the prime time part of the day looks interesting by morning around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 great web pics - thats some serious snow, esp for november in the se. the radar image is quite impressive, and the ull doesnt really seem to be moving much at the moment and a ton of moisture streaming into eastern georgia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doppler5 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Haleyville, AL AWOS: K1M4 282049Z AUTO 23005KT 1SM -SN BR BKN002 OVC008 00/00 A2980 RMK AO2 CIG 001V005 RAE19SNB19 P0005 K1M4 282040Z AUTO 24007KT 1 1/2SM -SN BR BKN002 OVC008 01/00 A2979 RMK AO2 CIG 001V005 RAE19SNB19 P0004 K1M4 282033Z AUTO 24005KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR SCT002 OVC008 01/00 A2979 RMK AO2 CIG 007V010 RAE19SNB19 P0003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I shall report any findings here SW of town! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Charlotte area- WSOC-TV WeatherHeavy rain to continue over Charlotte through the night. Winds will pick up even more through 10 pm. Severe weather not expected. ~john Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 GSP does have some flakes mixing in across the western piedmont and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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