FoothillsNC Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 MEG Update: T AND LARGE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION CAPABLE OF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. ...THEN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS. UPDATED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS AFTER COORDINATION WITH OHX AND HUN...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO RATE AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THUS...WHAT WOULD BE A LIKELY WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING EVENT LATER IN THE SEASON IS NOT SO SIMPLE IN LATE NOVEMBER. Glad to see they are finally seeing this as a sig. event. Even though amounts will be hard to come by on the ground, the trees can take a hit if it falls fast enough, and they are exactly in the same spot respective to the circulation this area was in the March 2009 storm. I won't be surprised to see some quick 6" amounts come out from somewhere in the MEM cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I’m sure you’ve noticed; but the NAM drops 3/10’s of liquid over your house tuesday morning. I would imagine at your elevation that will be all snow and have potential for stickage. Yep...and the 0z GFS is showing stronger signs for Tuesday on the latest run. You can clearly see the strong vort lobe moving south on the backside of the ULL along the MS/AL border and watch it drag the 540 contour south with it as the vort lobe rounds the base of the ULL. And combine all that with 90%+RH thru 500mb and sub freezing layer down to below 925mb (almost to 950mb), and the snow opportunity looks pretty good right now. I'm not expecting much if any accumulation IMBY but above 2,000ft could coat the grassy areas in GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 28, 2011 Author Share Posted November 28, 2011 Mesoscale Analysis is not showing a closed off ULL at 500mb yet. It briefly had a small closed contour earlier today but not to be found right now. You can see something small in MO but that's not the ULL, I really have no idea what that is there. The only thing I can think of is it is the beginning stages of our closed ull and it's in the process of getting it's act together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I picking up one my model some snow in the towns like Alabaster/Annister AL from 12-16Z time frame on the 29th. Temperatures right around or just above the freezing mark around that time, be hard to get any type of accumulation maybe under a heavier shower, might whiten the ground for a brief time then melt quickly. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 GSP- "THE INCOMING NAM IS ALSO FEATURING SLIGHTLY MORE SFC BASED INSTABILITY FOR MON AFTN. THIS PORTENDS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN A QLCS SEVERE THREAT FOR THE PM HOURS AS SHEAR WILL BE OFF THE CHARTS. WILL KEEP THE THUNDER MENTION AT ISO TO SCT FOR NOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE WARM SECTOR DESPITE THE CLOUDS/RAIN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drb Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Glad to see they are finally seeing this as a sig. event. Even though amounts will be hard to come by on the ground, the trees can take a hit if it falls fast enough, and they are exactly in the same spot respective to the circulation this area was in the March 2009 storm. I won't be surprised to see some quick 6" amounts come out from somewhere in the MEM cwa. First time poster! I remember that event quite vividly -- as you say, this system's setup is like this one. The model runs even match up very nicely with this go-around. Temps were in the 50s around the area, and accumulations were expected to be minimal at best. We ended up with upwards of 14" in a rural area outside of Memphis. However, ground temps were about 15 degrees cooler than they are now. I don't blame them for being sheepish -- ULLs are unpredictable. However, the models are coming into consensus. But the framework for an event is here; knowing who gets it is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Update on my thoughts of our system: http://gwxmanblog.bl...-store-for.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Update on my thoughts of our system: http://gwxmanblog.bl...-store-for.html Good wright up. Ya i really have never seen anything like this. It will be very interesting to track and to see who gets snow and who doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Good wright up. Ya i really have never seen anything like this. It will be very interesting to track and to see who gets snow and who doesn't. I know who won't, I wont but I will cheering for the rest of ya'll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I know who won't, I wont but I will cheering for the rest of ya'll! Ya it's amazing how the deep south is getting snow but all the way up through the Great Lakes are not. I think they will get some when the Low pulls out but maybe you will get a good strom down there this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just now saw this posted by GSP. This was at 10:08 pm: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1008 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ007>014-019-290315- FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND- LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE- YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1008 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE...STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...OR A WEAK TORNADO...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE THE RAIN BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajaronw10 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wish it would snow here, even if it's just flurries.. Doubt it will though.. Hopefully we'll get a good snow before (or on) Christmas like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Wish it would snow here, even if it's just flurries.. Doubt it will though.. Hopefully we'll get a good snow before (or on) Christmas like last year I like this thought, now if we all think this maybe it will happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUIZZY Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Just now saw this posted by GSP. This was at 10:08 pm: HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1008 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 GAZ026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ007>014-019-290315- FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND- LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE- YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1008 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...THEN LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION MONDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH A BAND OF HEAVY RAIN...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY UNSTABLE...STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED BUT DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS...OR A WEAK TORNADO...WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. AN UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP UNDER THE LOW. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE THE RAIN BRIEFLY MIX WITH SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. In our dreams right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 NWS Blacksburg Trailing 500 mb low will start to fill precipitation back in over the western zones late Tuesday...with bands spreading north through Tuesday night. Latest guidance track of this feature would put the heavier bands across southeast wva into western Virginia on the positive vorticity advection side of the cold pool and only scattered rain showers southeast of the Blue Ridge. Since a little more consensus to this tonight...went ahead and included a period of low likely probability of precipitation escply southeast wva overnight and higher chances out to the Blue Ridge. Ptype will be on the transition to snow over the far west as the cold pool moves across and 850 mb temperatures quickly fall to below 0c. Pending quantitative precipitation forecast appears a quick couple of inches of snow possible higher elevations southeast wva by Wednesday morning and an inch or so into the northwest NC ridges. Could see a mix out to the Blue Ridge espcly if the upper system shoves farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 NWS Blacksburg Trailing 500 mb low will start to fill precipitation back in over the western zones late Tuesday...with bands spreading north through Tuesday night. Latest guidance track of this feature would put the heavier bands across southeast wva into western Virginia on the positive vorticity advection side of the cold pool and only scattered rain showers southeast of the Blue Ridge. Since a little more consensus to this tonight...went ahead and included a period of low likely probability of precipitation escply southeast wva overnight and higher chances out to the Blue Ridge. Ptype will be on the transition to snow over the far west as the cold pool moves across and 850 mb temperatures quickly fall to below 0c. Pending quantitative precipitation forecast appears a quick couple of inches of snow possible higher elevations southeast wva by Wednesday morning and an inch or so into the northwest NC ridges. Could see a mix out to the Blue Ridge espcly if the upper system shoves farther east. Sound like the mountains will pick up a couple of inches with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Statement as of 3:36 AM CST on November 28, 2011 ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning... The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning. * Snow accumulations... 3 inches or more. * Timing... 6 PM CST this evening to noon CST Tuesday. The period of heaviest snow will occur from midnight CST tonight until 6 am CST Tuesday. * Impacts... snow may disrupt travel across the watch area. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Sjm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Statement as of 3:36 AM CST on November 28, 2011 ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning... The National Weather Service in Memphis has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from this evening through Tuesday morning. * Snow accumulations... 3 inches or more. * Timing... 6 PM CST this evening to noon CST Tuesday. The period of heaviest snow will occur from midnight CST tonight until 6 am CST Tuesday. * Impacts... snow may disrupt travel across the watch area. Be prepared for snow covered roads and limited visibilities... and use caution while driving. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Sjm First warning shot fired. Lets see if anymore are fired as the day go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 First warning shot fired. Lets see if anymore are fired as the day go on. I can only imagine the excitement people will be waking up to around Memphis. News usually travels slow over the weekends and even then there was a lot of uncertainty to make the general public aware I bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 I can only imagine the excitement people will be waking up to around Memphis. News usually travels slow over the weekends and even then there was a lot of uncertainty to make the general public aware I bet. Ya everyone will be running to the Grocery store i bet. It looks like some moisture is staring to fill back in around that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You can see the beginning of the spin occurring on radar with precipitation filling back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 You can see the beginning of the spin occurring on radar with precipitation filling back in. Ya thats pretty cool. I say by midday this thing will be beastly looking. It has an endless supply of moisture and is suppose to strengthen pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 One contour and almost two. Today ought to be fun! Gotta go back to work though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajaronw10 Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Nothing better than a good rainy day!.. Well except a snow day... Guess I'll have to take the rain for now though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 Yep. Back to work. Great disco overnight folks!!!! One contour and almost two. Today ought to be fun! Gotta go back to work though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 In our dreams right? I wouldn't rule out a flurry especially the further west you go. We will have to see how the low tracks but we should be under some cold air tomorrow evening and there might be just enough moisture left. We can always hope at least. It'll be cool just to see a flurry this early in the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1006 Surface low currently centered over NE AL, NW GA, and SE TN. The ULL is a two contour 552 low well back over LA, AR, MS area. This low is still cranking From what I understand, these two will at some point today/tonight, become vertically stacked. -5 850's over AR/MS and -24 500's over the low. SURFACE LOW ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 28, 2011 Share Posted November 28, 2011 1006 Surface low currently centered over NE AL, NW GA, and SE TN. The ULL is a two contour 552 low well back over LA, AR, MS area. This low is still cranking From what I understand, these two will at some point today/tonight, become vertically stacked. -5 850's over AR/MS and -24 500's over the low. SURFACE LOW ULL Yep you can see the features pretty clearly on Water Vapor this morning... Water Vapor Loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.