Nov. 27th - Nov. 29th Upper Level Low

[FoothillsNC]

GSP is hedging bets on mnt valley snow. Here is part of the pm afd. I left out the rain part as that is a given. Looks like it will be a nail biter imby @ 2190 elv. Any thoughts on this.

There has been a big slug of PVA and atleast one or more very strong vorts coming right around the southern Apps and later on into the piedmont of NC on Tuesday. The air at 850 is atleast -3 maybe colder and a cold bubble of 534 thkns value all are positives for some snow, almost a guarantee of snow in Asheville and the valleys, imo. I guess in reality there's never any guarantees in weather, but if it doesn't snow there Tuesday it's because the moisture went *poof*.

amazing (and depressing lol) looking at the radar - as others said this morning it looked like it was on the way, but as of now it has barely moved eastward hopefully there will be no convection south of us to steal our moisture!

this was expected, earlier today it was clear it was slowing down. The good news is the line will start to pivot, keeping you in rain for a long duration.

[oconeexman]

Different setup, ULL going neg tilt at the mouth of the MS should have no problem slamming copious amounts of QPF into NE GA, upstate of SC, and W NC... Patience, and while the current radar looks impressive, granted the train is off to your west, fireworks are still about 6-8 hrs away. Still looking at a pos tilted open upper air trough per the spc meso page, about to move into western LA. This will close off and begin to rapidly deepen in extreme NE LA, likely around the boarder with AR & MS... Right tilt will commence rapidly, and it is going to be hard. Snap-shot the current national mosaic, and then again around 3am tomorrow morning, for a comparison of the ramifications. Diff vort advection looks great right now coming out of SE OK and E TX, but it ain't jack compared to the numbers we are about to see over LA, southern AR, and MS once this sucker closes off, and twists.

Still somewhat uncertain as to strength of the cutoff, and QPF amounts. We may see some areas in eastern TN with goofy type numbers, 8"+, , eastern half of AL, N GA, W SC, and SW NC, isolated to maybe scattered reports of 6"+. Strength, 534-538 range, on a hard right tilt, somewhere around extreme NE AL/NW GA, southern TN.

Ok that did it, you got me jacked up. Will probably get up often tonight to check radar and capture some screen shots of tilting!

Gutters cleaned today and tree going up, tomorrow watch it rain ALL day

[NEGa]

Different setup, ULL going neg tilt at the mouth of the MS will have no problem slamming copious amounts of QPF into NE GA, upstate of SC, and W NC... Patience, and while the current radar looks impressive, granted the train is off to your west, fireworks are still about 6-8 hrs away. Still looking at a pos tilted open upper air trough per the spc meso page, about to move into western LA. This will close off and begin to rapidly deepen in extreme NE LA, likely around the boarder with AR & MS... Right tilt will commence rapidly, and it is going to be hard. Snap-shot the current national mosaic, and then again around 3am tomorrow morning, for a comparison of the ramifications. Diff vort advection looks great right now coming out of SE OK and E TX, but it ain't jack compared to the numbers we are about to see over LA, southern AR, and MS once this sucker closes off, and twists.

Still somewhat uncertain as to strength of the cutoff, and QPF amounts. We may see some areas in eastern TN with goofy type numbers, 8"+, , eastern half of AL, N GA, W SC, and SW NC, isolated to maybe scattered reports of 6"+. Strength, 534-538 range, on a hard right tilt, somewhere around extreme NE AL/NW GA, southern TN.

thanks for the positive post lol. i just remember too many times when convection fired up over the gulf and we ended up with greatly decreased qpf. once i see how things start playing out i will feel much better. its been a while since we have seen this type of monster system and i guess its the prestorm jitters (which i should be used to by now)

of course the clicher is i have to be out and about early tomorrow morning for work so i am sure it will be pouring

[DAWGNKITTEN]

Different setup, ULL going neg tilt at the mouth of the MS will have no problem slamming copious amounts of QPF into NE GA, upstate of SC, and W NC... Patience, and while the current radar looks impressive, granted the train is off to your west, fireworks are still about 6-8 hrs away. Still looking at a pos tilted open upper air trough per the spc meso page, about to move into western LA. This will close off and begin to rapidly deepen in extreme NE LA, likely around the boarder with AR & MS... Right tilt will commence rapidly, and it is going to be hard. Snap-shot the current national mosaic, and then again around 3am tomorrow morning, for a comparison of the ramifications. Diff vort advection looks great right now coming out of SE OK and E TX, but it ain't jack compared to the numbers we are about to see over LA, southern AR, and MS once this sucker closes off, and twists.

Still somewhat uncertain as to strength of the cutoff, and QPF amounts. We may see some areas in eastern TN with goofy type numbers, 8"+, , eastern half of AL, N GA, W SC, and SW NC, isolated to maybe scattered reports of 6"+. Strength, 534-538 range, on a hard right tilt, somewhere around extreme NE AL/NW GA, southern TN.

21z RUC @ 18hrs

Let me ask a stupid question...one that's probably been answered a million times about these ULL's...once it makes a hard right, will it proceed to keep coming in the basic direction it's been coming or will the right tilt effect that motion any? (If it doesn't rain til later on in the day I have 5,000 Christmas lights to start checking and getting them up around the house before my 22 year old has a fit and recruits my 21 and 19 yr. olds on their lunch break tomorrow!) Thanks for patiently answering questions, ya'll!

[NavarreDon]

Great disco from you guys in the know! You just can't beat the SE crew. Thank you all....for the time you take to post your thoughts.

[SnoJoe]

There has been a big slug of PVA and atleast one or more very strong vorts coming right around the southern Apps and later on into the piedmont of NC on Tuesday. The air at 850 is atleast -3 maybe colder and a cold bubble of 534 thkns value all are positives for some snow, almost a guarantee of snow in Asheville and the valleys, imo. I guess in reality there's never any guarantees in weather, but if it doesn't snow there Tuesday it's because the moisture went *poof*.

There has been very little discussion on here, as well as Gsp in their AFD's, of the northern mountains. I take it, as most of these systems coming from the southwest, the moisture will we be eaten up by the mountains before it can get here.

We were not even included in the flood watch so I take it as a nonevent here. I'm sure I'll get some chances later so y'all enjoy and hope some people somewhere will get some flakes. We could have used the rain but we're not in too bad of shape now.

[griteater]

There has been very little discussion on here, as well as Gsp in their AFD's, of the northern mountains. I take it, as most of these systems coming from the southwest, the moisture will we be eaten up by the mountains before it can get here.

We were not even included in the flood watch so I take it as a nonevent here. I'm sure I'll get some chances later so y'all enjoy and hope some people somewhere will get some flakes. We could have used the rain but we're not in too bad of shape now.

I don't see any way you escape this one without heavy, heavy rain. Here's the 18z RGEM...

[1bert1]

BLACKSBURG VA covers the NC Northern Mountains

ON MONDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED MOVENORTHWARD ACROSS TENNESSEE INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...LIFTING A COLD FRONTACROSS OUR REGION AS IT PASSES. THE COMBINATION OF A STRONG FETCH OFMOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AS SOUTHEASTERLYWINDS DRIVE THIS MOISTURE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE WILL RESULT IN PERIODSOF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS POINT...LOOKING FOR THEHEAVIEST RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...MOUNTAIN EMPIRE AND SOUTHERN NEW RIVER VALLEY AROUND MIDNIGHTTUESDAY. THEN EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO SHIFT NORTH OVER SOUTHEASTWEST VIRGINIA...THE ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS AND THE NORTHERN NEW RIVERVALLEY BY AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVEOUT OF OUR REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST IN THE NORTH CAROLINAMOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN VIRGINIA...WHERE STORM TOTALRAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 INCHES...GIVE OR TAKE A QUARTER INCH...WILLBE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THIS AREA. IN ADDITION...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISEDTO SEE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT REACHING UP TO 4INCHES.ANOTHER CONCERN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE GUSTY WINDSTHANKS TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW PRESSURESYSTEM. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF AROUND A 9 MILLIBARPRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR AREA AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR WEST. INADDITION...THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE BLOWING PERPENDICULAR TOTHE RIDGELINES...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ERRATIC WIND GUSTSAS HIGH AS 50 MPH IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS A RESULT...WILL HAVEA WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ANDBELIEVE THAT THE CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT THIS ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BEUPGRADED TO A HIGH WIND WARNING BY MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OFTHE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION AND THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH COOLER AIR WILLBUILD INTO OUR AREA AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. RESIDUAL MOISTUREWRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL BE CAUGHT UPIN THIS COLDER AIR...CAUSING THE RESIDUAL RAINSHOWERS TO CHANGE OVERTO SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FORSOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ENOUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO ALLOW SNOW TOCHANGE BACK TO RAIN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT EXPECT THATELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF MAINLYLIGHT SNOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHEN DRIER BUILDS IN ANDPRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.

[ST21]

http://www.weather.c...snow_2011-11-27

Not sure how reliable, so just for fun

[ams30721us]

Anyone watch Ch. 2 Brad Nitz this evening? He just did a great breakdown and explanation of Dual Pol Radar and how useful it will be with watching the freezing level fall on radar and how the radar can detect wintry precip better. Very good job by him!

[toxictwister00]

Anyone watch Ch. 2 Brad Nitz this evening? He just did a great breakdown and explanation of Dual Pol Radar and how useful it will be with watching the freezing level fall on radar and how the radar can detect wintry precip better. Very good job by him!

Yeah, it was very cool. I hope they'll get the opportunity to get a lot of use out of it this winter.

[FoothillsNC]

There has been very little discussion on here, as well as Gsp in their AFD's, of the northern mountains. I take it, as most of these systems coming from the southwest, the moisture will we be eaten up by the mountains before it can get here.

We were not even included in the flood watch so I take it as a nonevent here. I'm sure I'll get some chances later so y'all enjoy and hope some people somewhere will get some flakes. We could have used the rain but we're not in too bad of shape now.

I've been focusing on the heavy rain more just to your south, as well as the snow aspect, but no doubt your'e in for both...its just that its' not that big of news for your area to get snow ( I know you could use the rain). Looks like widespread heavier rains focused more in the southern part of the chain but I won't be surprised to the whole part of the NC mtns get a major rain because of the strong se fetch. As for snow, you'll get into advisory criteria stuff probably Tuesday, and of course it will linger a while becuase upslope kicks in for early Wednesday. High winds too. Something like 2" to 4" total imo at your elevation.

[buckeyefan1]

My kind of day!

From the ultra conservative FFC.....

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers before 1pm, then a chance of rain showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

This is nice to see

Not sure how reliable, so just for fun

That would make a lot of people happy

CAE.....

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE GREATER SHOWER CHANCE SHOULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT

ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE

FRONT. EXPECT A BAND OF SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE H85 JET THE

MODELS SHOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NAM SHOWS CROSS TOTALS JUST GETTING

INTO THE LOWER 20S SO EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE STRONG

SHEAR THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOW BECAUSE OF A

LACK OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. THE NAM SHOWS SURFACE-BASED

LI/S REMAINING ABOVE ZERO. THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

FORECASTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND ONE AND ONE-HALF INCHES. AS

THE LOW-LEVEL JET SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA THE SHOWERS SHOULD

DIMINISH LATER MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE

FROM LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT

ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD MAY SUPPORT

SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH PART THROUGH TUESDAY.

[andyhb]

Snippet from the RAH discussion for Monday/Tuesday:

A VERY CLOSE ANALOG TO THIS SYSTEM (W/REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC

PATTERN) IS THE NOVEMBER 16 2006 EVENT THAT RESULTED IN FAIRLY

WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN ASSOC/W A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF

CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADIC

SUPERCELLS (ONE OF WHICH SPAWNED A DEADLY EF3 TORNADO IN COLUMBUS

COUNTY) MOVING INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ASSOC/W SOUTHEASTERLY

LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT

ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREME

LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH A ~50 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AT 925 MB AND

A 75-100 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT 500 MB. UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FORCING

IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS (80-160

METERS BETWEEN 00-12Z TUE) AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COINCIDENT WITH THE

COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUE MORNING. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL

BE INSTABILITY...DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE

RATES ASSOC/W AN ATYPICALLY MOIST COLUMN (PWAT VALUES ~1.50").

ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH SOME LAYER-LIFTING/SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL BE

IN PLACE IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR STEEPENING

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY MINIMAL

GIVEN LITTLE OR NO DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS. ONE POTENTIAL POSITIVE

FACTOR W/REGARD TO INSTABILITY WILL BE AN ATYPICALLY LONG PERIOD

(18-24 HRS) OF STRONG SOUTH/SE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE

FRONT...WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S OVER AT LEAST S/SE

PORTIONS OF THE AREA...UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. ALTHOUGH POOR OR

NON-EXISTENT INSTABILITY MAY ULTIMATELY PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR

SEVERE WEATHER...PREVIOUS HSLC EVENTS HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERE

WEATHER DESPITE VERY MARGINAL/POOR INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN THE

STRONG KINEMATICS IN PLACE...IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO DISMISS THE

POSSIBILITY OF SVR WX. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...THE BEST CHANCE FOR

SVR WX WILL BE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 10 PM MON AND 10 AM

TUE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

[MADDOGG]

let the rain begin

[WeatherNC]

Heads up guys, and gals We are going to get into some higher traffic tomorrow, folks coming in wanting to investigate the +RN and colder temps ---> possibilities This thread needs to stay macro-type ULL analysis, any RN imby posts, temps, -RN/+SN, belong in the obs thread. With that being said, macro-type short range high-res meso models, real-time spc meso shots, radar/sat shots, please feel free to let them fly here. Difference in macro/micro type analysis, if it refers to your back yard, or your immediate neighbors, in real time reporting, take it to the obs thread. Analysis that would pertain to the SE as a whole belongs here, thanks.

[AcworthWx]

Heads up guys, and gals We are going to get into some higher traffic tomorrow, folks coming in wanting to investigate the +RN and colder temps ---> possibilities This thread needs to stay macro-type ULL analysis, any RN imby posts, temps, -RN/+SN, belong in the obs thread. With that being said, macro-type short range high-res meso models, real-time spc meso shots, radar/sat shots, please feel free to let them fly here. Difference in macro/micro type analysis, if it refers to your back yard, or your immediate neighbors, in real time reporting, take it to the obs thread. Analysis that would pertain to the SE, or even WFO's as a whole belongs here, thanks.

As I'm still learning the ropes so to speak, would this be ok in here or the Obs thread? I already posted it in the Obs, but wasn't sure if this was allowed in here. Thanks, NC.

[WeatherNC]

As I'm still learning the ropes so to speak, would this be ok in here or the Obs thread? I already posted it in the Obs, but wasn't sure if this was allowed in here. Thanks, NC.

Crap-shot/shoot... Honestly, we run into this whenever we break up the main disco/real-time obs threads. If you are posting this referencing a total iyby, obs, maybe seeing what others have in the gauge, should be obs. More of a macro type deal, hey, this is what NE AL and NW GA have so far based on radar, close call, likely disco. Hard to say, and I am going to leave that up to you guys/gals to make the best call. If it is blatant, I will move it, borderline, stays put. Hopefully most know, or can infer where it belongs... Granted, the grey area always appears, and that is a judgment call 9 times out of 10, and I will not second guess that, promise.

[MotoWeatherman]

Finally we have model consensus of a closed low. Now its just a matter of how far west to close off and how strong. For GA it looks like a huge rain maker. I'm a snow weenie and am always looking for anything that could provide any sort of glimmer of hope of at least flurries IMBY. One thing I am watching of interest is Tuesday. The 18z GFS and the new 0z NAM both show a lobe of vorticity rotating around the base of the closed low which causes a resurgence of moisture up thru south Alabama and into GA on Tuesday. Thicknesses are crashing as the closed low approaches and the moisture is surging north. I'm not saying that this will result in snow as temps are very marginal, but if we (in GA) want to see anything, this may be our best shot with this system.

What I want to see happen on future model runs is for the ULL to stay closed as it crosses GA and and for that vorticity lobe to remain rounding the based of the closed low to reignite the precip. The likely result will be just a cold rain but if this system could give us anything, then this would be the time it would.

I'm amazed that the models have held on to that vort max rotating down the back side of the ULL and rounding the base on Tuesday. After my 2-4" of rain tonight and tomorrow the flakes flying on Tuesday should be nice to see in GA.

[AcworthWx]

It was more Disco, as I posted the map as "Totals so far for NE Ala/ NW Ga" in the Obs thread. I can respect why we don't want to clutter up a thread, so thank you for the clarification.

[Psalm 148:8]

Probably a dumb question...delete if you choose....Just trying to look at the 500mb 24 hour NAM that just came in .....What does that big N in the middle mean?? Sorry can't post the image...don't know how with the new NCEP model page.....Just didn't see it the last few times in the graphic...what is the significance??

[DaculaWeather]

The x's are areas of maximum vorticity and the N's are areas of no vorticity.

[Carvers Gap]

To my naked eye on the national radar loop, this looks to be cutting of a little more south and east(more east than south) than the modeling portrayed. True or False? Just hard to picture this system coming back west w/ the way the loop looks.

[burrel2]

I'm amazed that the models have held on to that vort max rotating down the back side of the ULL and rounding the base on Tuesday. After my 2-4" of rain tonight and tomorrow the flakes flying on Tuesday should be nice to see in GA.

I’m sure you’ve noticed; but the NAM drops 3/10’s of liquid over your house tuesday morning. I would imagine at your elevation that will be all snow and have potential for stickage.

[DaculaWeather]

To my naked eye on the national radar loop, this looks to be cutting of a little more south and east(more east than south) than the modeling portrayed. True or False? Just hard to picture this system coming back west w/ the way the loop looks.

Right now the moisture is well east of where the center will form. It's not moving much at all but the precip seems to be filling back in as it starts to strengthen.

[FoothillsNC]

I’m sure you’ve noticed; but the NAM drops 3/10’s of liquid over your house tuesday morning. I would imagine at your elevation that will be all snow and have potential for stickage.

The NAM looks realistic and how I've pictured this all along, so a good thing that it's not really changed. I'm still very gung ho on the snow. Southwest TN, esp. northern Mississippi and then a band re-developing as it crosses central to northern Alabama and Georgia by Tuesday morning after sunrise. Even though that band doesn't look too heavy , my main area for the moderate to heavy snow falling is probably the TN./MS border region, even though nobody under the 7h tight low is out of the question along the TN border to Al, Ga and then the Apps of n. GA and western NC later Tuesday. In fact, the 5h system slingshots a nice lobe of vort. right toward western NC, esp. SW NC, later Tuesday afternoon. Even into the Upstate of SC, I wouldn't rule out some snow showers , the thickness and 850s are pretty low and with strong cyclonic curvature the vorticity might get enhanced there , even though models don't nec. show that explicitly. This has been a fun system to track. I still think stationary bands in around the MEM area or just south and east could get a decent surprise accum . from this. Not to mention just flakes falling in November in the South is noteworthy.

[griteater]

Different setup, ULL going neg tilt at the mouth of the MS will have no problem slamming copious amounts of QPF into NE GA, upstate of SC, and W NC... Patience, and while the current radar looks impressive, granted the train is off to your west, fireworks are still about 6-8 hrs away. Still looking at a pos tilted open upper air trough per the spc meso page, about to move into western LA. This will close off and begin to rapidly deepen in extreme NE LA, likely around the boarder with AR & MS... Right tilt will commence rapidly, and it is going to be hard. Snap-shot the current national mosaic, and then again around 3am tomorrow morning, for a comparison of the ramifications. Diff vort advection looks great right now coming out of SE OK and E TX, but it ain't jack compared to the numbers we are about to see over LA, southern AR, and MS once this sucker closes off, and twists.

Still somewhat uncertain as to strength of the cutoff, and QPF amounts. We may see some areas in eastern TN with goofy type numbers, 8"+, , eastern half of AL, N GA, W SC, and SW NC, isolated to maybe scattered reports of 6"+. Strength, 534-538 range, on a hard right tilt, somewhere around extreme NE AL/NW GA, southern TN.

Good post. 'Fireworks' is a good way to describe what is upcoming. What stands out to me with this system is how the 500/700/850 mb lows are ALL about to begin a 36 hour period of rapid deepening (strengthening). No way that doesn't lead to an explosion of rain in N GA / E TN / NW SC / W NC....and some heavy snow falling in spots to the west - I see ground zero for the snow being SW TN and far N MS where the best combo of cold temps and moisture is maximized.

[ams30721us]

Bright banding in Tupelo?

Tupelo radar

[jrips27]

Bright banding in Tupelo?

Tupelo radar

Dual-Pol would be nice right about now.

[ams30721us]

MEG Update:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 918 PM CST SUN NOV 27 2011 .UPDATE... RAIN IS HAVING TROUBLE EXITING THE MIDSOUTH TO THE EAST...WITH RAIN STILL FALLING ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY AND THE TENNESSEE RIVER. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS IN THESE AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING...WITH LOWER POPS AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN ANY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF I-55. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS LIKE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE CORE OF COLD AIR WILL TRAVEL FROM ARKANSAS TONIGHT OVER MISSISSIPPI MONDAY...AND TO NORTHERN ALABAMA MONDAY NIGHT. AN IMPRESSIVE TROWAL SIGNATURE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A SOLID DEFROMATION BAND AROUND THE LOW CENTERED OVER ABOUT PARIS MONDAY NIGHT. HOW THIS PRECIP WILL INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR...AND MORE IMPORTANTLY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...WILL DICTATE WHETHER ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCUR. EXAMINING THIS POTENTIAL FURTHER SHOWS A CROSSHAIR SIGNATURE WITH STRONG LIFT...NEAR SATURATION...AND SYMMETRIC INSTABILITY WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ROUGHLY IN AN AREA SOUTH OF I-40 FROM MEMPHIS TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND NORTH OF OLIVE BRANCH TO TUPELO. THIS FAVORS EFFICIENT AND LARGE SNOWFLAKE PRODUCTION CAPABLE OF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BEFORE...SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR FREEZING AND GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM TO SUPPORT A SNOWPACK FOR TOO LONG. IF HIGH RATES DO MATERIALIZE AS INDICATED WITHIN THE MODELS...THEN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND GRASSY AREAS. UPDATED TO INCLUDE A BIT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THESE AREAS AFTER COORDINATION WITH OHX AND HUN...BUT THIS IS HIGHLY SUBJECT TO RATE AND BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. THUS...WHAT WOULD BE A LIKELY WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING EVENT LATER IN THE SEASON IS NOT SO SIMPLE IN LATE NOVEMBER.