ST21 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Where is the wrap around, or has it already formed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Where is the wrap around, or has it already formed? The moisture is streaming up nicely behind the initial front last I checked. It should start wrapping up as the upper level low becomes more defined and turn over to snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The moisture is streaming up nicely behind the initial front last I checked. It should start wrapping up as the upper level low becomes more defined and turn over to snow on the back end. Ok thank you, still learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Interesting reading -snsh out of the FFC this early in the year! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 219 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2011 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA... ...EARLY SEASON WINTRY PRECIP POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY... PHASE 1...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL... AS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CLOSE OFF THIS EVENING OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN WHICH WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON RAINFALL TOTALS. INCREASED UPPER DIVERGENCE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE TO INTENSITY OF RAINFALL AS WELL. ADD TO THAT ANY OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES AND YOU HAVE ALL THE INGREDIENTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT. STILL STICKING CLOSE TO THE HPC QPF WHICH YIELDS THE GREATEST RAINFALL AS UPPER JET SURGES NE MON AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH SURFACE LOW RETROGRADING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS AREA WOULD BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE FORECAST TOTALS ARE IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES AND THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER HPC. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THESE AREAS BUT AREAL EXTENT MAY NEED TO BE REVISITED WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. PHASE 2...WINTRY WX POTENTIAL... TO BE CLEAR...AT THIS POINT...THE FLOODING POTENTIAL IS BY FAR THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT EXPECTED THIS WEEK BUT NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY WINTRY SCENARIO LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE SPOKE FROM TENNESSEE VALLEY UPPER LOW THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. GIVEN COLD CORE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...INSTABILITY DRIVEN SHRA ARE LOOKING MORE PROBABLE AND THE QUESTION TURNS TO IN WHAT FORM. PARTIAL THICKNESSES AND SOUNDINGS ALL POINT TO -SNSH FOR MOST OF NORTH GA THROUGH 15Z TUE. THE PROBLEM IS THE SURFACE WET BULBS WHICH LOOK TO STRUGGLE TO GET COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE. FEEL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN TIER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES BUT AREAS WITH BURSTS IN INTENSITY WILL HAVE GREATER CHANCES FOR FROZEN PRECIP AS WELL. HAVE OPTED TO INDICATE -SNSH FOR THE NORTHERN TIER...MOSTLY THE MOUNTAINS...AND A MIX FURTHER SOUTH. REGARDLESS...WARM GROUND TEMPS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING TO STICK. MAIN AREA FOR CONCERN WOULD BE NE MOUNTAINS AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Sure is a sharp line of demarcation. I've been in partly cloudy, sun brightened clouds all day with heavy winds, and now over head are very dark gray clouds, with no sun at all poking through out west, or north south along the line. And the wind has backed down some. Looking forward to the bottom dropping out before long. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Its a slow go, Tony...been waiting all day....seems like the rain line has made very little easterward progression since I got up this morning....thought I would come out of church to rain....but 3:00 and no rain yet.....ready to get this snow.....ooops, I mean SHOW on the road....eagerly awaiting the suprises the ULL has for us....Certainly keeping my mind off of that dreaded dentist appt tomorrow....That ought to be fun....watching TWC and listening to it in stereo headphones while I get my teeth worked on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Sure is a sharp line of demarcation. I've been in partly cloudy, sun brightened clouds all day with heavy winds, and now over head are very dark gray clouds, with no sun at all poking through out west, or north south along the line. And the wind has backed down some. Looking forward to the bottom dropping out before long. T Up until about an hour ago, it's been calm winds here, temps in the 60's, sun coming and going. Now, the wind is starting to pick up, gray and dark gray clouds moving in. A Flood Watch was also issued for our county from GSP http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tiger&state=GA&site=GSP&lat=34.8455&lon=-83.4334 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It's been weird to watch the rain train to my west. Areas near Dalton are probably approaching 1.5" according to radar. I'm so used to seeing it move west that I'm getting impatient lol. looking at the new RUC, it appears it will be later tonight before the rain moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It's been weird to watch the rain train to my west. Areas near Dalton are probably approaching 1.5" according to radar. I'm so used to seeing it move west that I'm getting impatient lol. looking at the new RUC, it appears it will be later tonight before the rain moves in. Have had radar up all day and seems like it hasn't moved much. Really impatient here too....was it supposed to move it later, or is this still on track to what it was progged to do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 NAM didn't have the closed 552 contour when it intialized its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 18Z remember comes off of 12Z data....no new ingest into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Oh, but it is what we want. Go as slow as molasses When the train arrives..... more for everyone What really gets me is you never get one of these when it is all snow and sleet. A good two days of constant snow and sleet Sometime I'll see that...but I don't know if it can be in Ga. lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 18Z remember comes off of 12Z data....no new ingest into the models. I'm not sure that's accurate. I was under the impression that 18 and 6Z model runs do have new data from current obs and balloon readings. They don't have quite as much iirc but the difference is negligible. If I'm wrong I apologize but this was just what I have been led to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 You could be right and me wrong....I had heard though that 18Z initialied off of 12Z and 6Z initialized off of 00Z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 NAM didn't have the closed 552 contour when it intialized its 18z run. Off the mesoscale analysis the contour closed off about an hour ago. Perhaps it was such a recent development that it did not make it in the runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 So did this thing start to close faster than we thought it would??? If so, what are the implications in the end?? hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 GSP is hedging bets on mnt valley snow. Here is part of the pm afd. I left out the rain part as that is a given. Looks like it will be a nail biter imby @ 2190 elv. Any thoughts on this. ON TUE THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FA...OR JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE A SHOT OF DPVA WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THE 850-700 MB THICKNESS FALL WELL INTO THE SNOW RANGE ACROSS THE FA AS A POOL OF -4 TO -6 DEG H8 TEMPS MOVES IN UNDER THE LOW. HOWEVER...BELOW 850 MB THE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 0900 UTC SREF. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE SNOW IN ANY OF THE PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR KAVL AND NONE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...THE OPERATIONAL 12 UTC NAM LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER ON THE COOL SIDE. ALSO...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THEIR RAW OUTPUT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MORE SOPHISTICATED SREF PCPN OUTPUT DON/T SUPPORT THIS. THEREFORE I/M CONFINING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS. 1 TO 2 INCHES IS A GOOD BET AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ONLY A TRACE IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. THAT SAID...A LITTLE MORE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF NE GA..SC AND NC THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TMRW MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Ive been right on the edge all day. it will rain enough to wet the ground and then quit for an hour. Its been doing this for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 It's been raining steadily since I got up this morning. 1.15 inches so far. Much more still to come. Can't say I'm expecting to see much snow. I'll be happy just to see it falling this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Its been pouring rain here in Dalton all day. We probably have between 1.5 and 2.0 inches already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 amazing (and depressing lol) looking at the radar - as others said this morning it looked like it was on the way, but as of now it has barely moved eastward hopefully there will be no convection south of us to steal our moisture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 amazing (and depressing lol) looking at the radar - as others said this morning it looked like it was on the way, but as of now it has barely moved eastward hopefully there will be no convection south of us to steal our moisture! Do wee see any mixing late tomorrow? Do we see the wrap around make it to us tuesday afternoon?? who knows, i just know im ready for big rain and cold air to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Do wee see any mixing late tomorrow? Do we see the wrap around make it to us tuesday afternoon?? who knows, i just know im ready for big rain and cold air to follow. ditto - anxiously waiting the first good late fall/early winter storm to see how it plays out. so far i am not impressed i hope we will see some flakes, but as usual the downslope effect has me nervous for ne ga and the upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 ditto - anxiously waiting the first good late fall/early winter storm to see how it plays out. so far i am not impressed i hope we will see some flakes, but as usual the downslope effect has me nervous for ne ga and the upstate I love your penguins, you crazy man A quick check of the radar says it is still out there, so I think we're ok You are in the cat bird seat for rain this time, I hope you have your snorkel! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I love your penguins, you crazy man A quick check of the radar says it is still out there, so I think we're ok You are in the cat bird seat for rain this time, I hope you have your snorkel! T lol - thanks. i wish it was cold and snowy enough here for some penguins right now! radar has been frustrating for those of us atl and eastward so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 GSP is hedging bets on mnt valley snow. Here is part of the pm afd. I left out the rain part as that is a given. Looks like it will be a nail biter imby @ 2190 elv. Any thoughts on this. ON TUE THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS THE FA...OR JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH HAVE A SHOT OF DPVA WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MODEST AMOUNTS OF PCPN. THE 850-700 MB THICKNESS FALL WELL INTO THE SNOW RANGE ACROSS THE FA AS A POOL OF -4 TO -6 DEG H8 TEMPS MOVES IN UNDER THE LOW. HOWEVER...BELOW 850 MB THE LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AND THE SNOW LEVEL LOOKS TO BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FEET. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE 0900 UTC SREF. THERE WAS VERY LITTLE SNOW IN ANY OF THE PLUME DIAGRAMS FOR KAVL AND NONE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS. THEREFORE...THE OPERATIONAL 12 UTC NAM LOOKS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER ON THE COOL SIDE. ALSO...WHILE THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GENERATE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW IN THEIR RAW OUTPUT...THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MORE SOPHISTICATED SREF PCPN OUTPUT DON/T SUPPORT THIS. THEREFORE I/M CONFINING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS. 1 TO 2 INCHES IS A GOOD BET AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT ONLY A TRACE IS EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS. THAT SAID...A LITTLE MORE SNOW IN THE VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE...AND EVEN OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS OF NE GA..SC AND NC THERE COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF SNOW WITH ANY HEAVIER SHRA THAT DEVELOP LATE TMRW MORNING.-- End Changed Discussion -- Agreed, I think if it had started off colder and this was the end of December I would have hopes on the below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mclean02 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Not sure if any has seen this from RAH REGARDING THE SEVERE RISK: FOR SEVERAL DAYS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHINGTHE CLOSE CORRELATION OF THE SYNOPTIC/THERMAL/WIND PATTERNS OF THISUPCOMING EVENT WITH A SIMILAR SUCH CASE... NOVEMBER 16TH 2006... ADAY WHICH SAW SEVERAL INSTANCES OF WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES ACROSSTHE CAROLINAS. THIS IS NOT TO SAY THAT THE UPCOMING EVENT IS CERTAINTO MIMIC THAT CASE IN ITS SEVERE STORM COVERAGE... HOWEVER SUCH ACLOSE MATCH CERTAINLY HEIGHTENS OUR CONCERN FOR A POTENTIALLYSIMILAR HIGH-SHEAR LOW-CAPE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT. THE WEAK MID LEVELLAPSE RATES (WHICH MODELS HAVE SHOWN FOR A FEW RUNS NOW) AND LOWINSTABILITY (BARELY 100-200 J/KG OF MLCAPE MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEASTCWA WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHEST) SHOULD HELP MITIGATETHE SEVERE RISK... HOWEVER THE STRONG AND SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THELOW AND MID LEVELS SEEM TO FAVOR A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERECONVECTION WITH ROTATING DISCRETE CELLS. THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDBECOMES INTENSE WITH 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO ANIMPRESSIVE 50-60 KTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT... AND SREF PROBABILITIES OF0-1 KM HELICITY EXCEEDING 150 M2/S2 ARE OVER 70 PERCENT...INDICATING STRONG SHEAR IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. WILL CONTINUE TOHIGHLIGHT A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTOTUESDAY MORNING... WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Went to the the Southpark area in Charlotte today and it was MILD. Yea, sorry snow lovers in Charlotte. At least we will get much needed rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Looking at the latest RUC the rain really doesnt reach the ne ga and nw sc areas till early tomorrow morning. Im sure we will see drizzle before then but by daylight should get socked in with it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 amazing (and depressing lol) looking at the radar - as others said this morning it looked like it was on the way, but as of now it has barely moved eastward hopefully there will be no convection south of us to steal our moisture! Different setup, ULL going neg tilt at the mouth of the MS will have no problem slamming copious amounts of QPF into NE GA, upstate of SC, and W NC... Patience, and while the current radar looks impressive, granted the train is off to your west, fireworks are still about 6-8 hrs away. Still looking at a pos tilted open upper air trough per the spc meso page, about to move into western LA. This will close off and begin to rapidly deepen in extreme NE LA, likely around the boarder with AR & MS... Right tilt will commence rapidly, and it is going to be hard. Snap-shot the current national mosaic, and then again around 3am tomorrow morning, for a comparison of the ramifications. Diff vort advection looks great right now coming out of SE OK and E TX, but it ain't jack compared to the numbers we are about to see over LA, southern AR, and MS once this sucker closes off, and twists. Still somewhat uncertain as to strength of the cutoff, and QPF amounts. We may see some areas in eastern TN with goofy type numbers, 8"+, , eastern half of AL, N GA, W SC, and SW NC, isolated to maybe scattered reports of 6"+. Strength, 534-538 range, on a hard right tilt, somewhere around extreme NE AL/NW GA, southern TN. 21z RUC @ 18hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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