griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 A quick comparison of tonight's NAM and this morning's Euro - upper low strength and location in far NW Georgia is virtually identical. If that comes to fruition, I don't see anyway there aren't some 4-8 inch snow reports in N MS/AL, W half of TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 In the end, the NAM is the NAM 70hrs out...just weenie popcorn Waiting to see how the gfs and euro handles it tonight. I'm excited and I've been out of the game the whole time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The wave entering the Pacific NW flattens the ridge behind our upper low, and that throws the upper low more NNE instead of NE...best snows look to be in N MS/AL, and most of western TN. For the folks in N GA, E TN, NC Mtns, you want this upper low to wait as long as possible to close off and go negative tilt....the Pacific NW wave is key in how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 The NAM still has the vort and associated moisture running through ATL Tuesday morning with the -6 air...pretty sure that should be snow, if thats real. Normally spokes do rotate around very much like this under a Cutoff, so I'm still expecting atleast a period or maybe 2 periods of snow bands to pass across northern third to 1/2 of GA. The lions share does look to stay put in n. Miss and probably around MEM or just east of there. Thanks for the update! I really hope we see some snow fly... ugh I'm such a weenie. Thanks Robert, I hope what the NAM is showing comes to fruition. Justin don't worry I'm a big snow weenie too, I just want to see some flakes flying. I'd take a quick snow shower that all melted on contact in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 For the folks in N GA, E TN, NC Mtns, you want this upper low to wait as long as possible to close off and go negative tilt....the Pacific NW wave is key in how that evolves. Does this include Atlanta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Does this include Atlanta? Yes. It all comes down to the strength and track of the upper low. Also of note is that the wave coming into W Canada and the Pac NW hasn't reached the coast, so there's the issue of it not being fully sampled from a data standpoint...additional adjustments to the track of this upper low should be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 For the folks in N GA, E TN, NC Mtns, you want this upper low to wait as long as possible to close off and go negative tilt....the Pacific NW wave is key in how that evolves. If it takes to long to go negative tilt then the wrap around snow would take longer to swing in and could miss us(N. GA) completely. What north Georgia needs is for that snow band to wrap all the way around and it can't do it with out a sustained period of negative tilt iirc. I assume you are referring to snow possibilities? What does the PAC NW wave have to do with the system? The northern stream is already wrapping in with the south energy as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Yes. It all comes down to the strength and track of the upper low. Also of note is that the wave coming into W Canada and the Pac NW hasn't reached the coast, so there's the issue of it not being fully sampled from a data standpoint...additional adjustments to the track of this upper low should be expected. So you're saying that if it closes off later then it is anticipated, then those areas you just mentioned may get more snow then initially predicted? That doesn't really sound right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The trough extends down into the Central Gulf on this cutoff, no wonder its being calculated as 4 to 5 Standard deviations below normal. Its actually tapping moisture from past Campeche well down toward Central America. This run looks similar maybe a little south. Has the moisture rotate through ATL by Tuesday morning associated with pretty cold air aloft (-6). The surprise snow in def. band should still occur around Memphis to Tupelo well before this time period though. This run still gives northern Miss. and west TN the best chance at snow. It even brings precip to western SC and the western piedmont of NC during the day Tuesday as the cold core passes over the Mtns of NC. Thanks for the update. This storm is really exciting to track not just because of the snow potential but because of the dynamics with this low. I don't think i have ever seen enything like this before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 00Z GFS running.. Closes off at H5 at 21 hours over west central AR. (positive tilt) at hour 33 it closes off it's second contour and is nearing neutral tilt. at hour 36 adds a third contour and is going negative tilt. at hour 39 it adds a fourth contour, this thing is deepening rapidly. Georgia in particular is getting plastered with rain on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 00Z GFS running.. Closes off at H5 at 21 hours over west central AR. (positive tilt) at hour 33 it closes off it's second contour and is nearing neutral tilt. at hour 36 adds a third contour and is going negative tilt. At 36 it's already triple contoured. 546DM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 If it takes to long to go negative tilt then the wrap around snow would take longer to swing in and could miss us(N. GA) completely. What north Georgia needs is for that snow band to wrap all the way around and it can't do it with out a sustained period of negative tilt iirc. I assume you are referring to snow possibilities? What does the PAC NW wave have to do with the system? The northern stream is already wrapping in with the south energy as we speak. You want this upper low to go south and east of you to get the best snows. Sure, you can get some wrap around flurries with it tracking through NW GA. The PAC NW and W Canada wave are flattening the ridge behind the upper low....if there was continued ridging behind the upper low, it would track more NE toward Charlotte vs. NNE into E TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Closed off at 4 contours already at hour 42. Closes the 564DM line which the NAM never did. NAM closed off at 4 contours at hour 54... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 42: Low closing as a 546 4-contour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 More rain here on the 0z GFS. 546 on the MS/AL border at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 So you're saying that if it closes off later then it is anticipated, then those areas you just mentioned may get more snow then initially predicted? That doesn't really sound right. It if closes off later and stays positive tilt longer, the track would be SE of its current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 The rainfall totals on this run of the GFS are going to be pretty severe for some folks. North Georgia, but the GA/SC/NC border area in particular looks bad. wow, the ULL goes so severely negative tilted that it looks neutral again, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The rainfall totals on this run of the GFS are going to be pretty severe for some folks. North Georgia, but the GA/SC/NC border area in particular looks bad. wow, the ULL goes so severely negative tilted that it looks neutral again, wow. Ya i was looking at the rainfall and then with the wind. Could be some power outages. Lots of rain. Wow this storm is going to lay a lot of rain down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 60: System still hanging around in TN at 540. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 N Border of MS/AL looks like the winner, much like the last two runs of the NAM...TN cashes in as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 N Border of MS/AL looks like the winner, much like the last two runs of the NAM...TN cashes in as well. Yep, and it also extends W/SW into E Arkansas and C MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 27, 2011 Author Share Posted November 27, 2011 oh my... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 GFS rainfall totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 UKMet looks very similar to the GFS with respect to the upper low strength / track. At hr 144, there is a tall ridge off the west coast, extending up into NW Canada...but no -NAO blocking to speak of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Canadian RGEM at hr48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MADDOGG Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Nice cold rain and maybe a few snow showers! Cant get much better in November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Canadian GGEM looks a lot like the GFS/UKMet. NAM is slightly SE with the upper low track compared to those models....however, it did match nearly exactly with the Euro from this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 GFS rainfall totals Finally looks like you folks on the northside are going to share with your less fortunate neighbors to the south, lol. I hope I get under the right train for a change. I'm still smarting from Lee and the train that missed by 20 miles or so. A good 3 or 4 inch thumping will help a lot down here. The reservoir is down to dirt in all the coves, and some fearce runoff is just what the Dr. ordered. I feel for Larry's friends up there in the flooding, and I guess there are always winners and losers. At least I'm not worried about a dry slot so much with this one Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 No euro talk tonight?! Where's everyone at while this monster looms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 6z NAM looks similar to its 0z, keeping that system along the southern TN border before finally lifting northeast along the Apps from hours 48-66. Still shows up as a 4-contoured 540 system. Meanwhile, the 3z SREF has this further north but still tracking through TN and instead heads for the OV with a quick turn to the north just before the Day 3 frame. 0z Euro looks a tad slower but seems to stick to its track from its 12z. Looks like the potential paths of this system are still somewhat up in the air but nonetheless this just continues to impress me. The rain is absolutely tremendous back west. Already a good chunk of the areas underneath the persistent stream of moisture have picked up quite a bit. In fact, one place in MS called Copiah has racked up to 4.12" so far and it's still not over yet. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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