HWY316wx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I know it's the nam... but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I know it's the nam... but still... lol - wow i wish that would verify....it gives a lot of us at least a little snow not really looking for it, though, since its still a bit early for me to get really excited about snow in ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 HPC Excessive Rainfall... Thought ya'll would like to see...hopefully I did it right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 HPC Excessive Rainfall... Thought ya'll would like to see...hopefully I did it right. thats an interesting image - is this a new product? i dont remember seeing it before (i have seen the snow and ice ones, of course lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 thats an interesting image - is this a new product? i dont remember seeing it before (i have seen the snow and ice ones, of course lol) I don't think it's new for excessive rain...just don't remember seeing anything on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 18Z NAM closes off 540DM at 5H over border of AL/TN. Precip wraps around nicely. Possible snow over N AL/MS into Central TN. 5H low rotates into Central TN. Western TN getting highest QPF rates and deformation band could be setting up. Hr72 ULL moving into Eastern TN nice deformation band in Western TN. Snow/flurries over Central TN/N MS. N AL/GA should be seeing snow, with light sn-shrs/flurries down in BHM-ATL metros, maybe mixing with rain. By Hr 78 the heaviest of snow is too our north for the Ohio Valley guys. Still plenty of wrap around moisture, again depending on BL temps either a mix or light snow showers/flurries down to BHM-ATL metros. Light Snow/flurries over most of TN into the Western sections of the Carolinas. By 84 still light snow over TN far N AL/GA and along the Apps. BL temps on soundings will have to be carefully checked to verify some of these locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Precip looks really good for wrap around snow showers/ flurries. Boundary temps look a little warm here though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillT Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 looking at the water vapor loop, i see some swirl starting up in the area south of the texas panhandle and clearly a streak of energy coming into it from the polar jet shooting south through nebraska...the upper air pattern seems to be moving into place nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Forecast rain for GSP area: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 It's about time for our good old friend the northwest trend to kick in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 After reading this, I am wondering a bit about the severe threat in the Carolinas with this system. Any other opinions? SEVERE THREAT:ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON(PARTICULARLY EAST OF HWY 1)...IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAND DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BESUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION...ORDIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVEONSHORE IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...IF AN ISOLDCONVECTION DEVELOPS MON AFTERNOON...LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BEMORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.A VERY CLOSE ANALOG TO THIS SYSTEM (W/REGARD TO THE SYNOPTICPATTERN) IS THE NOVEMBER 16 2006 EVENT THAT RESULTED IN FAIRLYWIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN ASSOC/W A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OFCONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADICSUPERCELLS (ONE OF WHICH SPAWNED A DEADLY EF3 TORNADO IN COLUMBUSCOUNTY) MOVING INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ASSOC/W SOUTHEASTERLYLOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREMELOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH A 50-60 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AT 925-850MB AND A 75-100 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT 500 MB. UPPER AND LOWER LEVELFORCING IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS(100-180 METERS BETWEEN 00-12Z TUE) COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONTALPASSAGE MON NIGHT. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL OF COURSE BEINSTABILITY...IN PART DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING. HOWEVER...GIVEN ANATYPICALLY LONG PERIOD (18-24 HRS) OF STRONG SOUTH/SE FLOW OFF THEATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ANTICIPATE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THELOWER 60S...PARTICULARLY IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS...INADDITION TO GOOD LAYER-LIFTING ASSOC/W STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN MARGINALSURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DESPITEPOOR DIURNAL TIMING. AS A RESULT...SEVERE STORMS /DAMAGING WINDS/WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAYEVE/NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES. -VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I'm in the bullseye here in Glenville, NC. Just checked to make sure there weren't any spider webs in my Vantage Vue rain gauge. Ready for the deluge. I sure hope the northwest flow is strong enough to lay some accumulations here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 1322344941[/url]' post='1144478']I'm in the bullseye here in Glenville, NC. Just checked to make sure there weren't any spider webs in my Vantage Vue rain gauge. Ready for the deluge. I sure hope the northwest flow is strong enough to lay some accumulations here. I doubt nw flow will provide anything more than just flurries or perhaps a rogue light snow shower. Even during our (jackson county) more robust and even intense nw flow events the southern section of the county rarely gets accumulations. Now, our best chance for accumulating snow will be Monday night or tuesday night. I'd say up to an inch is possible for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 After reading this, I am wondering a bit about the severe threat in the Carolinas with this system. Any other opinions? SEVERE THREAT:ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL LARGELY BE ABSENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON(PARTICULARLY EAST OF HWY 1)...IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAND DIURNAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY BESUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD CONVECTION...ORDIURNAL INSTABILITY COULD SUSTAIN ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVEONSHORE IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW. WITH THIS IN MIND...IF AN ISOLDCONVECTION DEVELOPS MON AFTERNOON...LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BEMORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.A VERY CLOSE ANALOG TO THIS SYSTEM (W/REGARD TO THE SYNOPTICPATTERN) IS THE NOVEMBER 16 2006 EVENT THAT RESULTED IN FAIRLYWIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE IN ASSOC/W A STRONGLY FORCED LINE OFCONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADICSUPERCELLS (ONE OF WHICH SPAWNED A DEADLY EF3 TORNADO IN COLUMBUSCOUNTY) MOVING INLAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ASSOC/W SOUTHEASTERLYLOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC. THE KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENTALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT MON NIGHT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY EXTREMELOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH A 50-60 KT SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ AT 925-850MB AND A 75-100 KT SOUTHERLY JET AT 500 MB. UPPER AND LOWER LEVELFORCING IS ALSO PROGGED TO BE IMPRESSIVE...WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS(100-180 METERS BETWEEN 00-12Z TUE) COINCIDENT WITH THE COLD FRONTALPASSAGE MON NIGHT. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL OF COURSE BEINSTABILITY...IN PART DUE TO POOR DIURNAL TIMING. HOWEVER...GIVEN ANATYPICALLY LONG PERIOD (18-24 HRS) OF STRONG SOUTH/SE FLOW OFF THEATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ANTICIPATE DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THELOWER 60S...PARTICULARLY IN THE SANDHILLS/COASTAL PLAIN. THIS...INADDITION TO GOOD LAYER-LIFTING ASSOC/W STRONG HEIGHT FALLS INADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN MARGINALSURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY OVER ALL OR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...DESPITEPOOR DIURNAL TIMING. AS A RESULT...SEVERE STORMS /DAMAGING WINDS/WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAYEVE/NIGHT...IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED TORNADOES. -VINCENT SPC says.... DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0134 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2011 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z ...SOUTHEAST... ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE TRANSITION TO A CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED INVOF LOWER MS VALLEY AT 12Z/MON...SPREAD BETWEEN ECMWF/SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF/GFS/NAM/CMC RUNS IS VERY LARGE WITH THE DETAILED EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST ON D3. THIS BREEDS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF ATTENDANT KINEMATIC FEATURES AS WELL AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AMBIENT INSTABILITY APPEARS TO REMAIN QUITE LIMITED...BUT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK BUOYANCY COULD DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GA TO NC. GIVEN THESE FACTORS /ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION/...WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I doubt nw flow will provide anything more than just flurries or perhaps a rogue light snow shower. Even during our (jackson county) more robust and even intense nw flow events the southern section of the county rarely gets accumulations. Now, our best chance for accumulating snow will be Monday night or tuesday night. I'd say up to an inch is possible for you. During the stronger events MBY is within range but near the furthest reaches it seems whereas Cashiers will have blue skies. Hoping my five month old daughter can see her first flakes. A wishcast for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 18Z GFS at hour 54 showing heavy rain in Western Carolinas with potential for light snow showers in a lot of states to the west (depending on surface temps): Then there's snowfall potential for WNC at hour 66: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 1322345575[/url]' post='1144490']During the stronger events MBY is within range but near the furthest reaches it seems whereas Cashiers will have blue skies. Hoping my five month old daughter can see her first flakes. A wishcast for sure. You live near big ridge which makes sense. I keep generalizing southern Jackson too much. I think she will see flakes fly if not stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I've been interested in the one around the 1st, or so. 18z is closing it over Ga. looks like, and it's pretty far south. Cheez mentioned this one the other day, then I think it was gone 'til the 5th.....and now there it is. Haven't checked how cold it is, but if it happens, and finds it's own cold air..... I still have problems getting too enthused about the 18z But this is sure an odd looking fall so far...lots of excitement and still no real cold. T Edit: Huh....guess I was looking at a stored map Never mind, lol. Sorry...but it did look good. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 NWS Blacksburg Precipitation type still a tough call Tuesday evening. With the cutoff low...pockets and layers of warm and cold air will have some places seeing snow...others seeing rain and may be isolated areas of freezing drizzle. Best snow chances will be in the higher elevations with possible freezing drizzle on western slopes. As the low moves north...a deeper layer of cold air will bring mostly snow to the mountains late Tuesday night into the day Wednesday. Accumulations on Wednesday best on western slopes with flurries toward the Blue Ridge. Pressure rises also increasing Wednesday for windy and gusty conditions. These winds may be strong enough to push flurries into the foothills and Roanoke valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 EDIT: 4 contour now starting at hour 51 through hour 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Current 500 mb Analysis: Nice looking trough that extends from Canada all the way across the border of Mexico. What a fun system this is going to be to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Comparing 00z NAM to this morning's 12z run thru 36hr, upper low is not quite as deep (very small difference), but the vort maxes are stronger....I would take the stronger vort maxes....also, the upper low is not going toward negative tilt quite as fast....so, both of these are good in my view from an overall strength standpoint of the upper low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 Looks like severe weather can't be ruled out here Monday. Just have to keep watching this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 This should end up a tick south and east of this morning's NAM run with respect to where backside snows are possible. Caveat - I've seen the NAM be too cold many times...much prefer the GFS thermal profiles with respect to precip types (and the Canadian RGEM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 I am reasonably impressed w/ the 0z NAM's handling of the low. Though easily entertained...When I animated the maps, it's pretty impressive that a computer can model a low just wandering around. If you think about it, computer modeling has come light years during the past two decades. (edit) Looks like the NAM is running on Foothills' top secret model he has stored in his basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The trough extends down into the Central Gulf on this cutoff, no wonder its being calculated as 4 to 5 Standard deviations below normal. Its actually tapping moisture from past Campeche well down toward Central America. This run looks similar maybe a little south. Has the moisture rotate through ATL by Tuesday morning associated with pretty cold air aloft (-6). The surprise snow in def. band should still occur around Memphis to Tupelo well before this time period though. This run still gives northern Miss. and west TN the best chance at snow. It even brings precip to western SC and the western piedmont of NC during the day Tuesday as the cold core passes over the Mtns of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The wave entering the Pacific NW flattens the ridge behind our upper low, and that throws the upper low more NNE instead of NE...best snows look to be in N MS/AL, and most of western TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The wave entering the Pacific NW flattens the ridge behind our upper low, and that throws the upper low more NNE instead of NE...best snows look to be in N MS/AL, and most of western TN. The NAM still has the vort and associated moisture running through ATL Tuesday morning with the -6 air...pretty sure that should be snow, if thats real. Normally spokes do rotate around very much like this under a Cutoff, so I'm still expecting atleast a period or maybe 2 periods of snow bands to pass across northern third to 1/2 of GA. The lions share does look to stay put in n. Miss and probably around MEM or just east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atlweatherman Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The NAM still has the vort and associated moisture running through ATL Tuesday morning with the -6 air...pretty sure that should be snow, if thats real. Normally spokes do rotate around very much like this under a Cutoff, so I'm still expecting atleast a period or maybe 2 periods of snow bands to pass across northern third to 1/2 of GA. The lions share does look to stay put in n. Miss and probably around MEM or just east of there. do you think 'thunder snow' is possible given the dynamics of this system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 27, 2011 Share Posted November 27, 2011 The NAM still has the vort and associated moisture running through ATL Tuesday morning with the -6 air...pretty sure that should be snow, if thats real. Normally spokes do rotate around very much like this under a Cutoff, so I'm still expecting atleast a period or maybe 2 periods of snow bands to pass across northern third to 1/2 of GA. The lions share does look to stay put in n. Miss and probably around MEM or just east of there. Thanks for the update! I really hope we see some snow fly... ugh I'm such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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