BullCityWx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Surface temps are a little warm at KCEU but the sounding probably supports snow at hour 78 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I did a meteogram for Centerville, TN and they have over 1" QPF on that map thats all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 GFS looks almost identical to the NAM through 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 The 06z run was not nearly as far south as this run Here's 06: Here's now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 3 contours at 57 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 It appears to be more spread out this run ad taking more of a negative tilt earlier than the 06 run. 06 12 run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 All models now seem to tilt the strong cutoff at 60 hours, aiming a strong upslope flow into ne Ga and the southern Apps. This is going to be a wallop of super-heavy rain there. And by 66 hours the core of the cold is coming over northern Al, and GA and already spreading into western SC and southwest NC. Looks similar to NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 QPF shows 5"+ right at NC SC GA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 NAM continues the idea of potential heavy snow in spots across TN....GFS says MEH.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 QPF shows 5"+ right at NC SC GA border. Is there gonna be heavy winds too, or just the heavy rain? If there's a possibility of 5" where I am along with heavy winds, sounds like a possibility for a lot of trees down...so just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Is there gonna be heavy winds too, or just the heavy rain? If there's a possibility of 5" where I am along with heavy winds, sounds like a possibility for a lot of trees down...so just wondering. The winds for you would be overnight Sunday night into early Monday. Whats your elevation? If its around 2000 feet you're in for quite a strong belt of winds increasing overnight Sunday. Edit. Just check the GFS and for some reason it keeps the highest winds south of your area. Not sure I buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Looks like downsloping winds will cut into rain amounts in NE TN. For those of you who don't live here, that is a real headache on snow events...but prevents flooding rains many times. That 60 hr precip map on the 12z NAM looks like those old precip climo maps where I would wonder how NE SC would get so much rain and SW NC for that matter. I'd hate to be a hydrologist for TVA right now. Going to be moving some water on the main stem next weekend. At 54 hours, midday Monday the GFS produces those strong winds in your area, thanks to the strong downsloping going on. Pretty neat phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Just crazy amounts of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 The winds for you would be overnight Sunday night into early Monday. Whats your elevation? If its around 2000 feet you're in for quite a strong belt of winds increasing overnight Sunday. Edit. Just check the GFS and for some reason it keeps the highest winds south of your area. Not sure I buy that. My elevation is 1903, but my neighbor is 2000 & 2130. I've been looking at NWS and they have calm to 10 mph and Accuweather has me with gusts to 20 at times, well, they did earlier... thanks Robert!!! I like the high winds....of course I like every aspect of winter weather, though. Thanks for all your input...learning a lot from ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 That is a ton of rain ... Would love to see the 4"+ amounts imby lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 That is a ton of rain ... Would love to see the 4"+ amounts imby lol You're in the ideal spot for this one. All models have it, plus it just fits the bill to a T. I always dislike where I am on these kind of events because one county west of here can get 4 or 5 times my amount like around Hickory Nut Gorge or Batcave. I think I have a shot at 2" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 GGEM is slower and further west, cuts off around Shreveport. That delays the rain for n. Ga and Apps, but overall its a similar track. It produces a lot of rain for a huge area of the eastern third of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 looks like my area of the escarpement is going to get soaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 First flakes of the season now added to the forecast for the North Carolina foothills from RaysWeather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 First flakes of the season now added to the forecast for the North Carolina foothills from RaysWeather. Bring it From now to March, I want ZR/IP or SNOW!!! Everybody can have the rain if that's what they want... Frosty likes winter weather. Now there's nothing wrong with rain, I just would love to see some frozen/freezing precip!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Quick KATL sounding. Hour 75. Temps below freezing down to about 950MB should support snow or rain/snow mix. This is if the 12Z NAM is correct though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Quick KATL sounding. Hour 75. Temps below freezing down to about 950MB should support snow or rain/snow mix. This is if the 12Z NAM is correct though. The 12z GFS is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Quick KATL sounding. Hour 75. Temps below freezing down to about 950MB should support snow or rain/snow mix. This is if the 12Z NAM is correct though. What site do you use for that? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 What site do you use for that? Thanks! It's bufkit, you can download it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Here's one for KAVL: Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 HPC Diagnostic Discussion: ...DEEP CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE SRN STATES... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF THE 250 MB WIND SPEED ANALYSIS IN THE GFS IS 10-17 KTS WEAKER THAN REPORTED BY RAOBS OVER MONTANA AND ALBERTA. NAM ERRORS OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE ARE CONFINED TO W-CNTRL MT/ALBERTA. THE UKMET/CANADIAN GLBL/ECMWF ANALYSES HAVE A BETTER INDICATION OF A 150+ KT SPEED MAX OVER ALBERTA. OVER MT THE CANADIAN GLBL COMES CLOSEST TO MATCHING TFX WITH THE ECMWF NOT FAR BEHIND WHILE THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 20 KTS WEAK OVER GGW WITH THE UKMET/CMC ABOUT 10 KTS WEAK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE MEANINGFUL SPREAD WITH THIS ANOMALOUSLY SWD CLOSED LOW OF SUCH DEPTH... WITH SOME MID LVL HGTS ALONG THE GULF COAST REACHING AT LEAST 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL SUN NIGHT-MON IN MOST GUIDANCE. IT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT IMPACT THERE MAY BE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED INIT ISSUES WITH 250 MB WINDS OVER MT/ALBERTA. AT THE VERY LEAST BETTER COMPARISON OF THE ECMWF/UKMET/CMC TO ALBERTA DATA AND SLOWER TRENDS OF THE UKMET AND TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE ECMWF VERSUS 00Z RUNS... PLUS MUCH SLOWER TRENDS OF THE NAM/GFS OVER THE PAST DAY... RECOMMEND LEANING AWAY FROM THE NAM/GFS WHICH BRING THE TROF/CLOSED LOW FARTHER EWD THEN NEWD WITH TIME COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. CMC RUNS CONTINUE TO BE ON THE SLOW SIDE THOUGH THE MODEL TENDS TO BE TOO AMPLIFIED WITH TROFS... WHILE THE 09Z SREF MEAN ALSO FAVORS A SLOW SOLN. THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS THE ONE SOLN TO TREND FASTER... TOWARD ITS OPERATIONAL RUN... WHILE THE 06Z GEFS MEAN WAS CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS BEST CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF THE 00Z ECMWF/ECMWF MEAN AND 00Z UKMET. DIFFS ALOFT LEAD TO CORRESPONDING DIFFS AT THE SFC FOR THE MOST PART. THE UKMET APPEARS TO BRING ITS SFC LOW TOO FAR WWD RELATIVE TO ITS MID LVL EVOLUTION AROUND MON NIGHT-EARLY TUE. WITH ABOVE INDICATIONS GENERALLY POINTING TOWARD A SOLN IN THE MIDDLE TO SLOWER HALF OF THE SPREAD... BUT THE 12Z ECMWF ADJUSTING ONLY A LITTLE SLOWER FROM PREVIOUS BEST CLUSTERING... FINAL RECOMMENDATION IS FOR A SOLN CLOSEST TO THE 12Z ECMWF. PERSISTENT SPREAD AND POOR CONTINUITY IN SOME SOLNS YIELD BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Tristate Area is gonna be WET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Tristate Area is gonna be WET! thats for sure - love the increasingly higher qpf amounts looking forward to seeing how this system plays out - at this point i am not overly optimistic for the winter around here considering the recent pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I will be puddle jumping with joy if it happens Goofy this morning is still showing some white gold falling close to Tony and Psalm It's looking good for both of us! I'd be thrilled if you could get a couple of inches, as I well know how the rain shaft you've been getting feels. I've been doing better that last 3 events, but you still haven't been getting squat. I'm pulling for you. As for snow I'd like the see the ULL getting further south, but the wrap around has been looking more vigorous than is usual, so it wouldn't surprise me to see some. But I'm not holding my breath..... though as Robert says, someone will have a great surprise. That is the thing about ULLs..surprise T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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