WeatherNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 54 hrs: Closed 546 low over MS/LA/AR Exactly, still a slightly positive-neutral'ish tilted orinetation, hard right would be over N AL/ N GA, in line with my earlier thinking. 66: Low goes down to 540: Too quick, but the model is starting to see the potential, influx of H5 energy, close off, and tilt should be a little slower than that, a myriad of interactions, most of which take place in a sub 4km box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Strange, at 66 the low actually loses the northern stream influence and then moves SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 84: Low is centered right over AL. Still holding strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 84 hours Really wish it went further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I was correct, FFC did not change the sunny Monday-Tuesday forecast with the 9 PM update. The mind boggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Finally we have model consensus of a closed low. Now its just a matter of how far west to close off and how strong. For GA it looks like a huge rain maker. I'm a snow weenie and am always looking for anything that could provide any sort of glimmer of hope of at least flurries IMBY. One thing I am watching of interest is Tuesday. The 18z GFS and the new 0z NAM both show a lobe of vorticity rotating around the base of the closed low which causes a resurgence of moisture up thru south Alabama and into GA on Tuesday. Thicknesses are crashing as the closed low approaches and the moisture is surging north. I'm not saying that this will result in snow as temps are very marginal, but if we (in GA) want to see anything, this may be our best shot with this system. What I want to see happen on future model runs is for the ULL to stay closed as it crosses GA and and for that vorticity lobe to remain rounding the based of the closed low to reignite the precip. The likely result will be just a cold rain but if this system could give us anything, then this would be the time it would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I was correct, FFC did not change the sunny Monday-Tuesday forecast with the 9 PM update. The mind boggles. Win-lose, as the dual-pole upgrade may get pushed back a day or two from the rumblings I am hearing... Hence, the site should be up, for the duration of this event. Edit: Can heart-fully relate though, MHX hear, looking for reasonable soundings from the WFO to our west, RAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I was correct, FFC did not change the sunny Monday-Tuesday forecast with the 9 PM update. The mind boggles. I totally agree with you Cheeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Thought I post this FWIW. Check out the 0Z NAM BUFKIT for GNC (MS): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 From the 0z NAM... look how that lobe of vorticity that is back in Arkansas on the 78hr map rounds the base of the ULL by 84hr. It causes a resurgence of moisture north and also causes the ULL to wobble to the SE versus moving due east. I we can get a 546 ULL to cross south of ATL then that might be enough to get some flakes across portions of N GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 What gets me is how much of slow mover it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I know most of you have seen Lanier in person or heard about it, but I for one will be happy with heavy rain to fill up the lake. We need the rain. Much like Moto I want the snow, but the ground is too warm so lets just load up on rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 What gets me is how much of slow mover it is. Yep...that's typically the nature of these things as they are detached from the main flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I know most of you have seen Lanier in person or heard about it, but I for one will be happy with heavy rain to fill up the lake. We need the rain. Much like Moto I want the snow, but the ground is too warm so lets just load up on rain! You know that Lanier is that low because they let more out than comes in. It's not because of the "drought". It's a bunch of down stream politics. Todays numbers show an inflow of 997 cubic feet per second with an outflow of 2141 cubic feet per second. Maybe that is too obvious and simplified to me but if you let more go out than what comes in then the lake will go down. The reservoir up here in Dahlonega is full. http://tinymicros.com/lanier/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Interesting MEG (Memphis Late Night Update) AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 909 PM CST FRI NOV 25 2011 .UPDATE... HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. REMOVED POPS TONIGHT AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE SLUG OF RAIN EASTWARD...BUT DID INCREASED CLOUD COVER. ALSO MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO SUBSEQUENT PERIODS BASED ON MODEL TRENDS...PARTICULARLY TO INCREASE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE CUTOFF SYSTEM. ALL MODELS NOW SHOW THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONLY MADE SOME MODIFICATIONS BASED ON TRENDS BUT SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL PROBABLY NEED TO RAISE POPS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE IF THIS SOLUTION IS STILL ADVERTISED. SOMETHING INTERESTING AND PARTICULARLY CONCERNING OF NOTE...THE 00Z NAM DEPICTION OF THE LOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOWS A VERY NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM OVER ALABAMA PUSHING NORTHWEST OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SUB 537 DAM 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES AND SUB 1290M 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND. DEEP OMEGA AND A PERSISTENT...NEARLY STATIONARY BAND WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH. OBVIOUSLY HARD TO BITE ON THIS PARTICULAR SOLUTION...BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE FOLLOWED IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS SINCE IT IS ONLY ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY AND THERE IS A REAL POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. BORGHOFF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Funny how none of the SE offices really want to lean that way, which I guess I can understand, but no warning of any of this and especially our office here not even mentioning rain... I just don't get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 0z GFS(500mb) Hr(s) 60(ULL TN) 72 (540mb ULL; TN valley) 81 (540mb ULL, TN/NC mtns) 84 (540mb ULL, app mtnn's ; movement N) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Funny how none of the SE offices really want to lean that way, which I guess I can understand, but no warning of any of this and especially our office here not even mentioning rain... I just don't get it. Hard to fathom FFC most of the time in an actual weather situation. I don't really want to be negative but they like to go with GFS a lot when its not warranted, and don't when the should. In this case, it was clear the GFS lost it by being too progressive and ensembles and other models had already made their switch well west, which means GA would be in the cloudy if not rainy sector. Now I suppose its possible the storm delays getting there til after Monday but it would really have to cutoff majorly further west and slow down for that. As it looks now , they will have to change their forecast, cause its gonna rain. A lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 72: 540 4-contoured low over central TN. Tad further north than the NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 72: 540 4-contoured low over central TN. Tad further north than the NAM: Thats impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Wow western half of nc mtns/foothills hammered this run....3"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 5 Contours. Wow! Almost exactly where the GFS put it a while back. What an outstanding unusual weather event we have on the way in the Southeast!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 5 Contours. Wow! Almost exactly where the GFS put it a while back. What an outstanding unusual weather event we have on the way in the Southeast!!! It's posts like this that get me absolutely pumped!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
farleydawg79 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Check out the Cobb output on the 0Z NAM for western Mississippi http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=gnc Impressive needless to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Looks like we could be setting up for a big time storm! Lots of rain and maybe a pretty good snow event. One thing that does worries me is the wind with this thing. With the ground beeing saoked and if the wind is blowing 90 there may be several power outages and up rooted trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Truely bizarre pattern. I've never seen this many 5H cutoffs, ever. Tonights GFS keeps them going, they're absolutely everywhere. I'm curious if anybody has any idea whats going on? I know nina's are known for them, esp. in Spring and Fall , but this is well beyond anything I've ever studied. And at what point in the season do they ease up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATL_Militarypolice Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Truely bizarre pattern. I've never seen this many 5H cutoffs, <font color="#FF0000"><b>ever</b></font>. Tonights GFS keeps them going, they're absolutely everywhere. I'm curious if anybody has any idea whats going on? I know nina's are known for them, esp. in Spring and Fall , but this is well beyond anything I've ever studied. And at what point in the season do they ease up? A couple of weeks ago I brought up how much colder the atmosphere is up to 14000 and 25000 ft. JB had been mentioning about this for awhile. We have the coldest temps at these levels now when compared to the past 50 years I believe it was. I would have to go back and check the original post it was in the winter thread. Just a theory but the record cold at these levels could be the reason for it. Whatever the reason, if these ULLs continue into winter...people will get buried. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 SOUTHERN STREAM DEEP CYCLONE FORMING/DRIFTING ACROSS THE DEEPSOUTH... PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT LOOK WELL INITIALIZED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN WYOMING. ITS HEIGHTS IN THE SHORTWAVES VICINITY AT 500 HPA ARE IN ERROR ABOUT 20 METERS...BUT THIS COULD BE WHY ITS DEEP CYCLONE ENDS UP NORTH OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS BETTER INITIALIZED HER courtesy of Ed in the main forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 SOUTHERN STREAM DEEP CYCLONE FORMING/DRIFTING ACROSS THE DEEPSOUTH... PREFERENCE: 18Z GFS/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THE 00Z GFS DOES NOT LOOK WELL INITIALIZED WITH A SHORTWAVE IN WYOMING. ITS HEIGHTS IN THE SHORTWAVES VICINITY AT 500 HPA ARE IN ERROR ABOUT 20 METERS...BUT THIS COULD BE WHY ITS DEEP CYCLONE ENDS UP NORTH OF THE OTHER DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THE 00Z NAM LOOKS BETTER INITIALIZED HERE. courtesy of Ed in the main forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 A couple of weeks ago I brought up how much colder the atmosphere is up to 14000 and 25000 ft. JB had been mentioning about this for awhile. We have the coldest temps at these levels now when compared to the past 50 years I believe it was. I would have to go back and check the original post it was in the winter thread. Just a theory but the record cold at these levels could be the reason for it. Whatever the reason, if these ULLs continue into winter...people will get buried. Sent from my ADR6400L Thanks, I didn't know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.