DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 99 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Loop here: http://www.daculaweather.com/gfs_18_500_vort_animated.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Awesome ! Hour 90 STILL over the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Nice extra push at 120 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 123 and 126 hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 NAM on Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 Wow GFS verbatim shows 3.5 - 4 inches of rain for mby plus some flurries or light snow showers. Amazing. I'll take this run and cash out thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Wow GFS verbatim shows 3.5 - 4 inches of rain for mby plus some flurries or light snow showers. Amazing. I'll take this run and cash out thank you very much. Sure its a boatload of rain, but I don't see much of a chance of flurries this run. Care to share what hour your looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Frank Strait just posted his video about the storm. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/strait/changes-are-coming-ill-speak-up-this-time/58252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 My goodness the FFC office continues to be horrible- with ALL guidance showing the ULL well west and rain through Tuesday, here is their current forecast: Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Pitiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 My goodness the FFC office continues to be horrible- with ALL guidance showing the ULL well west and rain through Tuesday, here is their current forecast: Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Pitiful. The forecast is awful because they created their evening forecast after the 12z model runs came out. These forecasts do not take the 18z runs. An update or change will likely occur early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 The forecast is awful because they created their evening forecast after the 12z model runs came out. These forecasts do not take the 18z runs. An update or change will likely occur early tomorrow morning. If you're basing it on that it just shows how horribly lazy they are. They've always taken the last minute approach so probably by later Saturday they will start tooting their horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 The forecast is awful because they created their evening forecast after the 12z model runs came out. These forecasts do not take the 18z runs. An update or change will likely occur early tomorrow morning. Sorry, the 12Z GFS had the ULL in the area on Monday, the Euro of course has had this for a couple of days, there is the Canadian etc etc. No excuse for not having at least a 30% POP here on Monday. Will they change it at 10 PM? I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Sorry, the 12Z GFS had the ULL in the area on Monday, the Euro of course has had this for a couple of days, there is the Canadian etc etc. No excuse for not having at least a 30% POP here on Monday. Will they change it at 10 PM? I doubt it. I've worked with them, I know how they work. They have various shifts, and this isn't something that requires immediate attention. They create their forecast after the 12z runs, and are typically done by the time 18z rolls in. Based on their forecast, it lines up to 12z GFS.....rain Sunday with mostly clouds on Monday with clearing skies by Tuesday and Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 My goodness the FFC office continues to be horrible- with ALL guidance showing the ULL well west and rain through Tuesday, here is their current forecast: Sunday Night: A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. West wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 51. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Tuesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Pitiful. I agree. I honestly have to ask who is the forecaster that got paid tax payer money to do that job today. Mostly Sunny on Monday??? If that is the best they can do in regards to a forecast it just makes you wonder who is in charge down their and do they not have any type of accountability with forecasts? Even if you did not want to make a drastic change with RAIN through Tuesday at least throw in a 20% chance Monday and Tuesday and go Mostly Cloudy but Mostly Sunny?? What model shows anything close to that right now from todays suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I've worked with them, I know how they work. They have various shifts, and this isn't something that requires immediate attention. They create their forecast after the 12z runs, and are typically done by the time 18z rolls in. Based on their forecast, it lines up to 12z GFS.....rain Sunday with mostly clouds on Monday with clearing skies by Tuesday and Wednesday. Well this is inaccurate but even if you went with that they have MOSTLY SUNNY Monday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Well this is inaccurate but even if you went with that they have MOSTLY SUNNY Monday! They have partly sunny skies for east Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I've worked with them, I know how they work. They have various shifts, and this isn't something that requires immediate attention. They create their forecast after the 12z runs, and are typically done by the time 18z rolls in. Based on their forecast, it lines up to 12z GFS.....rain Sunday with mostly clouds on Monday with clearing skies by Tuesday and Wednesday. 12z has rain for GA through 6z on Monday. At the very least it should say showers in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Hey fellow North Georgians, don't forget that the FFC radar will be going down on Monday for the Dual-Pol upgrade. Click here for more info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Hey fellow North Georgians, don't forget that the FFC radar will be going down on Monday for the Dual-Pol upgrade. Click here for more info. Terrible timing for sure. The heart of the heavy rain will be during that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Terrible timing for sure. The heart of the heavy rain will be during that time frame. They should have upgraded in early October when the weather was relatively quiet and not as active.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 They should have upgraded in early October when the weather was relatively quiet and not as active.... There would have been no challenge then! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 They should have upgraded in early October when the weather was relatively quiet and not as active.... Yea, when we had tornado's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 I've worked with them, I know how they work. They have various shifts, and this isn't something that requires immediate attention. They create their forecast after the 12z runs, and are typically done by the time 18z rolls in. Based on their forecast, it lines up to 12z GFS.....rain Sunday with mostly clouds on Monday with clearing skies by Tuesday and Wednesday. The funny part is where you say that their forecast lines up with the GFS...not the part about whether it actually lines up with the GFS, but that they would base all or the majority of their forecast on the GFS op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 Sure its a boatload of rain, but I don't see much of a chance of flurries this run. Care to share what hour your looking at? I had a few lines written up explaining why there would be flurries but.... nope you are correct. I made my assumption off this link which was ill advised.... I see that now. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KMGE edit : ewww, nvm you are correct no flurries..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 26, 2011 Author Share Posted November 26, 2011 NAM out to 42 hours... The Low closed off the first contour at 500mb farther west in extreme SW Oklahoma at 34 hours this time. Let's see what it does... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 54 hrs: Closed 546 low over MS/LA/AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Per the NAM, some good snows for NW MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Huge hit for NW Mississippi on the NAM. As much as 12" through hour 66! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted November 26, 2011 Share Posted November 26, 2011 Huge hit for NW Mississippi on the NAM. As much as 12" through hour 66! Yep. Quite a bit per the NAM: 66: Low goes down to 540: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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