burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 How far north does the moisture get ? It's good across all of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's good across all of NC Thanks Burger !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 exactly and thats what its doing with the 5H , the vortex is a little further south, keeping things a little supressed . The moisture axis is not well up into Ky and southern Ohio now, but western NC and east TN I saw that too. The vortex is much stronger this run. I can see this continue to trend further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM is being wonky with SFC temps at 69 and 72 hours. Frz temps jump from DC then back down to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 by Thursday 12 z. Surface temps are noticeably colder than previous runs for the same time. Sub 30 is from AVL to CLT to Rockingham and eastern NC. .a lot of NC. its also weird to see a slug of such low dewpoints in southern SC to Florida at 60 hours, but most of everyone east of the Apps still has sub 32 dewp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 SV maps...which is also why this weenie can even pretend to read maps. Alright, thanks. It's good across all of NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 An expert could correct me if I'm wrong but this looks to give much of the state a few inches then some ZR on top...IF it came out verbatim based on the temps I would guess CLT might have a little icing issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 66hrs, traffic in and around the triangle would be a mess, precip looks to be shutting off from CLT to GSO at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Temps are still freezing going into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yea, I like the look of the nam tonight. That would be a decent hit for the RDU area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 As already stated this run looks alot better for sure! next up 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yea, I like the look of the nam tonight. That would be a decent hit for the RDU area. So is Statesville area gonna be all snow? I'm guessing no by the way that map is looking. That is to the untrained eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Theres no doubt this run puts much of NC back in the snow to ice game, sort of thought the NE Vortex would control that sudden north jog of moisture. Now it could really trend in our favor but we have to see more models shift south. The event starts in 48 hours so this type of trend south is probably legit. It looks like NC uses up most of the moisture, atleast accu. moisture in creating snow and ice, rather than warming the column. I wouldn't be surprised to see this morph into something very significant. It gives most of NC over a .25" not a terrible storm, but not a puny one either, esp. considering our ground will be frozen already. The MTN and NW NC get the most it appears, possibly up to .75" or more, which would be major as they'd be the last place, if any, to go above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 a general 1-2 inches for much of the piedmont? Cold antecedent conditions will only help accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Theres no doubt this run puts much of NC back in the snow to ice game, sort of thought the NE Vortex would control that sudden north jog of moisture. Now it could really trend in our favor but we have to see more models shift south. The event starts in 48 hours so this type of trend south is probably legit. It looks like NC uses up most of the moisture, atleast accu. moisture in creating snow and ice, rather than warming the column. I wouldn't be surprised to see this morph into something very significant. It gives most of NC over a .25" not a terrible storm, but not a puny one either, esp. considering our ground will be frozen already. The MTN and NW NC get the most it appears, possibly up to .75" or more, which would be major as they'd be the last place, if any, to go above freezing. I guess the million dollar question will be can it move south more and give us in the CLT region the jackpot (yea yea I'm greedy)? Anyways see you in the morning guys. I've been up since 5 this morning for work and the GF needs some attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 One thing I've been thinking lately is how this event is going to be followed so quickly by the next. Don't look for any sunshine too soon, beyond tomorrow or early Wed. in the Southeast. The next system is already taking shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Better but still not impressed. Mostly rain for Georgia and South Carolina no doubt. Anyways, here's hoping RDU gets slammed while the mid-atlantic gets nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 An expert could correct me if I'm wrong but this looks to give much of the state a few inches then some ZR on top...IF it came out verbatim based on the temps I would guess CLT might have a little icing issue. Ice on top of snow preserves the snowpack for a longer duration, so those rooting for a White Christmas would want some ice on top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 One thing I've been thinking lately is how this event is going to be followed so quickly by the next. Don't look for any sunshine too soon, beyond tomorrow or early Wed. in the Southeast. The next system is already taking shape. That's ok as long as it stays sub 32 we will get plenty sunshine in the spring. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Better but still not impressed. Mostly rain for Georgia and South Carolina no doubt. Anyways, here's hoping RDU gets slammed while the mid-atlantic gets nothing. It also looks like there is a precip hole over ne ga and the upstate. Of course. Hopefull it will trend south, colder, and fill in ghe precip the closer we get. Thankgoodness this is coming up quickly and not a drawn out spiral into depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So is Statesville area gonna be all snow? I'm guessing no by the way that map is looking. That is to the untrained eye. No likely SN-->IP--->ZR---->RA if you take this run as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If this run were to verify RDU could be looking at a few inches Perfect for me.... Great run indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So is Statesville area gonna be all snow? I'm guessing no by the way that map is looking. That is to the untrained eye. It doesn't look like it according to the 0z nam. It looks like it might start as some snow but then quickly going to an ip, zr situation. But you have to remember this is just one run. We still have a ways to go w/ this storm. We are talking about the nam at 60 hrs. We need some more model agreement before I believe the south trend on tonights nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 exactly and thats what its doing with the 5H , the vortex is a little further south, keeping things a little supressed . The moisture axis is not well up into Ky and southern Ohio now, but western NC and east TN Robert, this run would seem to generate several inches of "thump" before a changeover here in northeast TN, or so it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Robert, this run would seem to generate several inches of "thump" before a changeover here in northeast TN, or so it appears. yep. And temps may stay subfreezing on that side of the Apps as well in this particular situation to make for glazing after the snowfall. I haven't digested this run fully yet though. Just for fun. Looks like the clipper storm from a week ago. Hopefully, we get a few flakes this way this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Folks, I'm not trying to be the weenie but its so hard to work out of town and try to keep up with so many different versions of posts. I thought we ditched the Thursday event earlier today and were focusing on the weekend. Now it appears we are back in the hunt for Thursday? If so, flying into GSO from Nashville Thursday night is going to be a pleasure........NOT. Somebody give me the best guess please. Three events pre-Christmas??? Maybe four??? Geesh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I am not getting sucked in again! No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdevil Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 the 00z Nam looks much better for you folks in North Carolina!! But don't celebrate too soon because this could be the beginning of a further south trend. I doubt it goes too much further but I have seen things change quick with trends in the 48 hour timeframe! Could be a better storm for SC or even N Ga with time. I doubt it but im just saying it's possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Posted this in the other thread, but I think it actually fits better here. Looks like the NAM shows snow quickly turning to sleet and freezing rain for the southern piedmont. It then quickly brings surface temperatures above freezing for everyone south of I-40 by mid morning. However I think places that receive some heavier precipitation will stay right around the freezing mark a little longer than those who only receive light precip. This could make a lot of difference in that freezing rain at 32 degrees with very cold ground temperatures can be much worse then when you have 32 degrees and relatively warm ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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