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December 16th event


RaleighWx

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by Thursday 12 z. Surface temps are noticeably colder than previous runs for the same time. Sub 30 is from AVL to CLT to Rockingham and eastern NC. .a lot of NC. its also weird to see a slug of such low dewpoints in southern SC to Florida at 60 hours, but most of everyone east of the Apps still has sub 32 dewp.

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Theres no doubt this run puts much of NC back in the snow to ice game, sort of thought the NE Vortex would control that sudden north jog of moisture. Now it could really trend in our favor but we have to see more models shift south. The event starts in 48 hours so this type of trend south is probably legit. It looks like NC uses up most of the moisture, atleast accu. moisture in creating snow and ice, rather than warming the column. I wouldn't be surprised to see this morph into something very significant. It gives most of NC over a .25" not a terrible storm, but not a puny one either, esp. considering our ground will be frozen already. The MTN and NW NC get the most it appears, possibly up to .75" or more, which would be major as they'd be the last place, if any, to go above freezing.

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Theres no doubt this run puts much of NC back in the snow to ice game, sort of thought the NE Vortex would control that sudden north jog of moisture. Now it could really trend in our favor but we have to see more models shift south. The event starts in 48 hours so this type of trend south is probably legit. It looks like NC uses up most of the moisture, atleast accu. moisture in creating snow and ice, rather than warming the column. I wouldn't be surprised to see this morph into something very significant. It gives most of NC over a .25" not a terrible storm, but not a puny one either, esp. considering our ground will be frozen already. The MTN and NW NC get the most it appears, possibly up to .75" or more, which would be major as they'd be the last place, if any, to go above freezing.

I guess the million dollar question will be can it move south more and give us in the CLT region the jackpot (yea yea I'm greedy)?

Anyways see you in the morning guys. I've been up since 5 this morning for work and the GF needs some attention.

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An expert could correct me if I'm wrong but this looks to give much of the state a few inches then some ZR on top...IF it came out verbatim based on the temps I would guess CLT might have a little icing issue.

Ice on top of snow preserves the snowpack for a longer duration, so those rooting for a White Christmas would want some ice on top.

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One thing I've been thinking lately is how this event is going to be followed so quickly by the next. Don't look for any sunshine too soon, beyond tomorrow or early Wed. in the Southeast. The next system is already taking shape.

That's ok as long as it stays sub 32 :snowman: we will get plenty sunshine in the spring. lol

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Better but still not impressed. Mostly rain for Georgia and South Carolina no doubt. :lightning: Anyways, here's hoping RDU gets slammed while the mid-atlantic gets nothing. :thumbsup:

It also looks like there is a precip hole over ne ga and the upstate. Of course. Hopefull it will trend south, colder, and fill in ghe precip the closer we get.

Thankgoodness this is coming up quickly and not a drawn out spiral into depression :lol:

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So is Statesville area gonna be all snow? I'm guessing no by the way that map is looking. That is to the untrained eye.

It doesn't look like it according to the 0z nam. It looks like it might start as some snow but then quickly going to an ip, zr situation. But you have to remember this is just one run. We still have a ways to go w/ this storm. We are talking about the nam at 60 hrs. We need some more model agreement before I believe the south trend on tonights nam.

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exactly and thats what its doing with the 5H , the vortex is a little further south, keeping things a little supressed . The moisture axis is not well up into Ky and southern Ohio now, but western NC and east TN

Robert, this run would seem to generate several inches of "thump" before a changeover here in northeast TN, or so it appears.

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Robert, this run would seem to generate several inches of "thump" before a changeover here in northeast TN, or so it appears.

yep. And temps may stay subfreezing on that side of the Apps as well in this particular situation to make for glazing after the snowfall. I haven't digested this run fully yet though.

Just for fun. :)

Looks like the clipper storm from a week ago.:snowman: Hopefully, we get a few flakes this way this time.

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Folks, I'm not trying to be the weenie but its so hard to work out of town and try to keep up with so many different versions of posts. I thought we ditched the Thursday event earlier today and were focusing on the weekend. Now it appears we are back in the hunt for Thursday? If so, flying into GSO from Nashville Thursday night is going to be a pleasure........NOT. Somebody give me the best guess please.

Three events pre-Christmas??? Maybe four??? Geesh! :wub:

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the 00z Nam looks much better for you folks in North Carolina!! But don't celebrate too soon because this could be the beginning of a further south trend. I doubt it goes too much further but I have seen things change quick with trends in the 48 hour timeframe! Could be a better storm for SC or even N Ga with time. I doubt it but im just saying it's possible :)

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Posted this in the other thread, but I think it actually fits better here.

Looks like the NAM shows snow quickly turning to sleet and freezing rain for the southern piedmont. It then quickly brings surface temperatures above freezing for everyone south of I-40 by mid morning. However I think places that receive some heavier precipitation will stay right around the freezing mark a little longer than those who only receive light precip. This could make a lot of difference in that freezing rain at 32 degrees with very cold ground temperatures can be much worse then when you have 32 degrees and relatively warm ground temps.

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