NEGa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 well this sucks. you'd think with all the cold, arctic air, and the blizzard in the midwest, snow in the carolinas and parts of georgia that it would have trended a little colder with all the snow cover. apparently not i was thinking last night when i went to bed that we were sitting sort of in good shape for something three days out. i should have known better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Given the history so far this year the NAM has sucked outside of 36hrs and maybe 24hrs and the GFS ensembles have been the most reliable if my memory serves me correctly. my 2pennies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It seems that I recall a storm this past winter, dates I do not remember, with a similar profile. We had cold in place, models shifted north and warmer, then came back in the last 24 hours resulting in a decent snowfall across the Carolinas. Am I incorrect??? (This referring to Thursday's storm) You are absolutely correct! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 well this sucks. you'd think with all the cold, arctic air, and the blizzard in the midwest, snow in the carolinas and parts of georgia that it would have trended a little colder with all the snow cover. apparently not i was thinking last night when i went to bed that we were sitting sort of in good shape for something three days out. i should have known better Welcome to the southeast: where hopes and dreams of winter weather come to die. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does at 1pm. Will the doctor put me out of my misery or leave me on life support? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 well this sucks. you'd think with all the cold, arctic air, and the blizzard in the midwest, snow in the carolinas and parts of georgia that it would have trended a little colder with all the snow cover. apparently not i was thinking last night when i went to bed that we were sitting sort of in good shape for something three days out. i should have known better 24hrs...don't give up unless it's within 24hrs. The PV has the models going sideways and believe nothing in stone outside of 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Yeah, an NBC17 mentioned we could see snow this weekend, the ultimate jinx. Yeah, I am very surprised the local media mentioned anything this far out. Usually they wait until the day before and only when they are 90% sure. When they mentioned it this far out, it always seems to never happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Welcome to the southeast: where hopes and dreams of winter weather come to die. Will be interesting to see what the Euro does at 1pm. Will the doctor put me out of my misery or leave me on life support? hopefully it will just put us out of our misery. at this point i just as soon it show nothing as well rather than keep us hanging on a thread for another day i am happy we are having all these chances since i didnt think we would after last year. however, my work product has been seriously suffering again the last week or so with the weather action of course whats even worse, is my mind is such that even when the models say a big NO, with the temps and dewpoints i will still be watching wed. for a miracle (unless its in the 40s). sigh lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I am issuing a Fail Watch for all of North Carolina from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. A fail watch is issued when conditions appear favorable for failing conditions. If a fail becomes imminent or a screw job is in progress a fail warning will be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Damn, 12 z is a disaster all around. It's why you don't start talking amounts 3 days out like someone did last night. Nothing is ever a certainty in the southeast even within 24 hours, much less 72 and beyond. That said, I still think there is a chance of snow/sleet for north Ga as a tongue of moisture moves through Wed. Dry boundary layer could prevent a lot of it from hitting the ground but I would imagine some will. Indeed, it's not nearly as dry as the last system and we still managed flurries in spots then. Of course as milder air moves in around 850mb, it will go over to light sleet and then light freezing rain wed evening. It's hard to say when or if because the freezing rain aspect of it depends on if or when any location wetbulbs and gets below freezing. With so little precip, it might take a while and some areas might not at all. It will eventually in some areas, especially north and east and into the carolinas. Not a big precip maker to say the least it would appear but with such cold ground conditions it could make for interesting driving for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 What are we hoping the GFS says at 11:30? Snow in Bombay, super sized hail in Tokyo, multiple tornadoes in LA, a big ass freighter grounding itself in front of the NY library and at least one inch of snow all across the southeast. All about equally likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Snow in Bombay, super sized hail in Tokyo, multiple tornadoes in LA, a big ass freighter grounding itself in front of the NY library and at least one inch of snow all across the southeast. All about equally likely. That snow was in New Delhi. The sad part is they have a better chance of seeing snow than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I am issuing a Fail Watch for all of North Carolina from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. A fail watch is issued when conditions appear favorable for failing conditions. If a fail becomes imminent or a screw job is in progress a fail warning will be issued. Does this mean the DOT will begin to spread liquid WTF on bridges and overpasses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Does this mean the DOT will begin to spread liquid WTF on bridges and overpasses? Yes they will be out there tomorrow evening I am sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That snow was in New Delhi. The sad part is they have a better chance of seeing snow than we do. You need to watch more carefully. The meeting was in a new deli. The deli was in Bombay. Damn kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 hopefully it will just put us out of our misery. at this point i just as soon it show nothing as well rather than keep us hanging on a thread for another day i am happy we are having all these chances since i didnt think we would after last year. however, my work product has been seriously suffering again the last week or so with the weather action of course whats even worse, is my mind is such that even when the models say a big NO, with the temps and dewpoints i will still be watching wed. for a miracle (unless its in the 40s). sigh lol Sadly, my standards are so low that I would be happy with just a few periods of light snow/flurries..which I would also consider myself lucky if I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Desperate times call for desperate measures. Time for us all to sing the Americanwx anthem. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf71RsyT52c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Sadly, my standards are so low that I would be happy with just a few periods of light snow/flurries..which I would also consider myself lucky if I do. That's what happens when you get burned over and over...our standards are LOW right now, hell a 3" snow would be a blizzard around here now! The flizzard deal yesterday you would have thought we were gonna get snowed in for days the way i acted! And one question for you as a Mod- is your leash a lot shorter this year, or trigger finger a little more antsy? I hope so! You have my full support!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 cue Eyewall's infamous fail posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Gotta love it!!!! You need to watch more carefully. The meeting was in a new deli. The deli was in Bombay. Damn kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Desperate times call for desperate measures. Time for us all to sing the Americanwx anthem. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rf71RsyT52c Awesome! I'm off today for the first time in 16 days and the wife and I did some Christmas shopping this morning. Perfect weather for the mood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Repeating question only to try to increase learning of weather dynamics!!! It seems that I recall a storm this past winter, dates I do not remember, with a similar profile. We had cold in place, models shifted north and warmer, then came back in the last 24 hours resulting in a decent snowfall across the Carolinas. Am I incorrect??? (This referring to Thursday's storm) Foothills... educationally for me speaking... could this be a repeat??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 That's what happens when you get burned over and over...our standards are LOW right now, hell a 3" snow would be a blizzard around here now! The flizzard deal yesterday you would have thought we were gonna get snowed in for days the way i acted! And one question for you as a Mod- is your leash a lot shorter this year, or trigger finger a little more antsy? I hope so! You have my full support!! lol Yes as a matter of fact but not because of the weather. We have agreed not to let the weenies run wild. Fortunately, it's not usually a problem for the southeast crew. I have it easier than most of them IMHO. But yeah, it's funny to have page after page for some flurries and light snow showers. But it's in our dna I think to get overly excited lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 lol Yes as a matter of fact but not because of the weather. We have agreed not to let the weenies run wild. Fortunately, it's not usually a problem for the southeast crew. I have it easier than most of them IMHO. But yeah, it's funny to have page after page for some flurries and light snow showers. But it's in our dna I think to get overly excited lol did you end up with a dusting or more? i had about 2 hours of very light snow showers, or snow grains, some accum. on the truck and porch. Like Tony said if we can get the right track on next weekend system, I'll worry about temps later...just get us a N. Fl. track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z's trending north today, but i'm not sure it matters until we see some consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Whats the 1:00 show? Im not ready to give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12z's trending north today, but i'm not sure it matters until we see some consistency. I am slated to drive from AVL to Wilmington, NC on Thursday morning and right now I am strongly considering canceling that business trip. Looks like snow or ice across the I-40 corridor at some point Wednesday night and Thursday. Thoughts on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I am slated to drive from AVL to Wilmington, NC on Thursday morning and right now I am strongly considering canceling that business trip. Looks like snow or ice across the I-40 corridor at some point Wednesday night and Thursday. Thoughts on this? We don't know yet. Delay deciding if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z euro has about the same, light precip, probably very light snow in W NC after midnight Wed. night and very early Thursday morning, but warming aloft very rapidly. By 12Z wed. the surface freezing is only in central NC around Statesville to GSO, with wNC and srn to eastern NC above freezing at the surface. and by midday Thurs the freezing aloft is very far north going from Ohio River to Virginia, and surface temps in NCa lot of places in the 40s. The surface cold just doesn't hold for any length in most of NC, so to me this looks like token front end pellets or flakes, followed by very light rain and drizzle. Not much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z euro has about the same, light precip, probably very light snow in W NC after midnight Wed. night and very early Thursday morning, but warming aloft very rapidly. By 12Z wed. the surface freezing is only in central NC around Statesville to GSO, with wNC and srn to eastern NC above freezing at the surface. and by midday Thurs the freezing aloft is very far north going from Ohio River to Virginia, and surface temps in NCa lot of places in the 40s. The surface cold just doesn't hold for any length in most of NC, so to me this looks like token front end pellets or flakes, followed by very light rain and drizzle. Not much qpf. Thanks for the update Foothills. I have to admit this is what I was expecting it to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 12Z euro has about the same, light precip, probably very light snow in W NC after midnight Wed. night and very early Thursday morning, but warming aloft very rapidly. By 12Z wed. the surface freezing is only in central NC around Statesville to GSO, with wNC and srn to eastern NC above freezing at the surface. and by midday Thurs the freezing aloft is very far north going from Ohio River to Virginia, and surface temps in NCa lot of places in the 40s. The surface cold just doesn't hold for any length in most of NC, so to me this looks like token front end pellets or flakes, followed by very light rain and drizzle. Not much qpf. Thread closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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