December 16th event

[burgertime]

Looks impressive for the mountains though, from at least 60-66 hours, as we go from a solid snow sounding to this classic freezing rain sounding:

This could catch folks by surprise. Snow then ice = not good for driving.

Yea certainly looks like a longer duration ZR event for you guys, AVL looks like it gets it from 66 to around 70.

[FoothillsNC]

12z NAM is looking a little bit north of it's solution at 00z. Let's see where this one goes.

Its almost a complete non-event in NC now. I don't like the trends overnight on the NAM GFS ECM, they all are pointing against this being anything much for south or I-40 and maybe most of NC. They all have south surface winds with most of the moisture staying along the spine of the Apps and west, northwest. The NAM has a pretty strong 850 low west of the Apps and that would help eastern and northern KY , southern Ohio and WVa. maybe western VA and initially northern NC but there's not much precip in NC at all. The models have been back on forth on a track either across Tn. or to KY, but the surface temps have been warming on every model I think, so now that we're within 72 hours I guess thats not a good sign. The GFS could stick to its colder solution though, but even it was warming at the surface, and had "not much " precip in srn NC but northern NC has a shot. The models are having a hard time with the New England Vortex but all the trends are leading me against anything significant for southern half of NC, and certainly western SC or n. Ga on this one. No model has a surface high in damming position, which is too bad because with that Vortex there, if there was a surface high of atleast 1025 mb in New York or so, the Carolinas could be facing a bad ice storm (again though, no model is dropping much moisture this side of the Apps). If the models were all to trend back south and west with the system, NC would have a much better shot at significan snow and ice, or if the precip got in here much quicker than progged.

[Weather Czar]

I would not write this off from one run of the nam at this range.

[Cold Rain]

It gives the area (S. foothills) a little window of hope.....

Just need a good clipper to pin my hopes on

Love the sig!!

Haha! Clippers seem to be the only way we get snow nowadays!

[HurricaneTracker]

Yep, here comes the NAM to bring in the NO. Let's hope the GFS has something better to say

I might not be so quick to write this one off. A few reasons why.

1. We have a mightily strong arctic airmass in place right now. We have wind chill advisories all the way down to southern Florida.

2. While the track of the low may be further west/north than past runs, the fact is, all that cold air that went south has to come back north...and yes it will be modified, but it's still a cP airmass.

3. Overnight soundings from AVL to RDU (and including CLT) look downright icy, especially along the I-40 corridor even through 12Z Thursday.

4. Let's not forget the forecast skill of the NAM at 60+ hours really isn't all that good. Once we get under 48 hours then you can start to worry.

[Shawn]

I would not write this off from one run of the nam at this range.

Foothills last post is very detailed and accurate. Just woke up and looked at previous runs. Definitely a warming trend and now, it looks like the moisture is even running away from NC.

[burgertime]

Its almost a complete non-event in NC now. I don't like the trends overnight on the NAM GFS ECM, they all are pointing against this being anything much for south or I-40 and maybe most of NC. They all have south surface winds with most of the moisture staying along the spine of the Apps and west, northwest. The NAM has a pretty strong 850 low west of the Apps and that would help eastern and northern KY , southern Ohio and WVa. maybe western VA and initially northern NC but there's not much precip in NC at all. The models have been back on forth on a track either across Tn. or to KY, but the surface temps have been warming on every model I think, so now that we're within 72 hours I guess thats not a good sign. The GFS could stick to its colder solution though, but even it was warming at the surface, and had "not much " precip in srn NC but northern NC has a shot. The models are having a hard time with the New England Vortex but all the trends are leading me against anything significant for southern half of NC, and certainly western SC or n. Ga on this one. No model has a surface high in damming position, which is too bad because with that Vortex there, if there was a surface high of atleast 1025 mb in New York or so, the Carolinas could be facing a bad ice storm (again though, no model is dropping much moisture this side of the Apps). If the models were all to trend back south and west with the system, NC would have a much better shot at significan snow and ice, or if the precip got in here much quicker than progged.

Damn, the worst part is I was made the fool by Brick . Hehe . Looks like that darn north trend is at it again.

[burgertime]

I might not be so quick to write this one off. A few reasons why.

1. We have a mightily strong arctic airmass in place right now. We have wind chill advisories all the way down to southern Florida.

2. While the track of the low may be further west/north than past runs, the fact is, all that cold air that went south has to come back north...and yes it will be modified, but it's still a cP airmass.

3. Overnight soundings from AVL to RDU (and including CLT) look downright icy, especially along the I-40 corridor even through 12Z Thursday.

4. Let's not forget the forecast skill of the NAM at 60+ hours really isn't all that good. Once we get under 48 hours then you can start to worry.

All good points. Will be interesting to see what wins out.

[eyewall]

Its almost a complete non-event in NC now. I don't like the trends overnight on the NAM GFS ECM, they all are pointing against this being anything much for south or I-40 and maybe most of NC. They all have south surface winds with most of the moisture staying along the spine of the Apps and west, northwest. The NAM has a pretty strong 850 low west of the Apps and that would help eastern and northern KY , southern Ohio and WVa. maybe western VA and initially northern NC but there's not much precip in NC at all. The models have been back on forth on a track either across Tn. or to KY, but the surface temps have been warming on every model I think, so now that we're within 72 hours I guess thats not a good sign. The GFS could stick to its colder solution though, but even it was warming at the surface, and had "not much " precip in srn NC but northern NC has a shot. The models are having a hard time with the New England Vortex but all the trends are leading me against anything significant for southern half of NC, and certainly western SC or n. Ga on this one. No model has a surface high in damming position, which is too bad because with that Vortex there, if there was a surface high of atleast 1025 mb in New York or so, the Carolinas could be facing a bad ice storm (again though, no model is dropping much moisture this side of the Apps). If the models were all to trend back south and west with the system, NC would have a much better shot at significan snow and ice, or if the precip got in here much quicker than progged.

To summarize this: FAIL!

Anyway I am hoping it is just a bad run of the NAM but knowing where I am I probably won't be so lucky. Lets see if the 12z GFS seals the deal. I really need to move to the Tug Hill in NY.

[FLO]

At what time are all the daily runs? I forget. Thanks!

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL already mentioned the possibility of wintry weather for Thursday, so you know it was bound to fail if they mentioned it more than a day in advance.

[strongwxnc]

Bookmark this site!

Or man in Dacula created this...

http://www.daculaweather.com/dacula_model_update.php

At what time are all the daily runs? I forget. Thanks!

[FLO]

Bookmark this site!

Or man in Dacula created this...

http://www.daculawea...odel_update.php

What are we hoping the GFS says at 11:30?

[burgertime]

What are we hoping the GFS says at 11:30?

More moisture with the cold further south, you know the usual hope.

[lilj4425]

At what time are all the daily runs? I forget. Thanks!

Around these times is when the runs begin:

GFS: 10:30pm, 4:30am, 10:30am and 4:30pm

NAM: 9:00pm, 3:00am, 9:00am and 3:00pm

[Shawn]

What are we hoping the GFS says at 11:30?

It may be hard to actually get this 16th system to do much of anything but cause us issues with ice in Central SC. There's another system around the weekend that is being monitored that develops in the gulf and strengthens as it tracks across. That's the one that could be a possible snow for us this far South, although there are temperature concerns this far South.

[tazaroo]

I hate to sound negative, but geez what in the world happened to our block. I was worried yesterday after the 18z runs that the moisture may stay more to my south.

[packbacker]

It would be funny if this went north and DC squeezed 4-5" and than got walloped next Sunday.

No thanks, I got enough of that last year.

Unfortunately this is still the same year (2010) atleast the 12z NAM thinks so.

What sucks is I am going to be driving back from DC on Thursday, I hope now this turns into a rain storm so I can get home.

[packbacker]

WRAL already mentioned the possibility of wintry weather for Thursday, so you know it was bound to fail if they mentioned it more than a day in advance.

Yeah, an NBC17 mentioned we could see snow this weekend, the ultimate jinx.

[rduwx]

Well the 12z gfs has come in further north also for Thursday. I feel this one starting to slip away.

[chapelhillwx]

I will admit, the 12z models are making me veeeerryyy nervous.

[HWY316wx]

Typical GFS tease and run. Oh well.

[rduwx]

I will admit, the 12z models are making me veeeerryyy nervous.

I started thinking yesterday during the 18z runs we might be in trouble. The 18z nam was further north and a lot of the gfs ensemble members were north. I think they were both starting to sniff something out then. Still a few days away but my confidence is not very high right now.

[lilj4425]

GSP is such a tease:

Wednesday Night: A chance of snow and sleet before 11pm, then a chance of sleet between 11pm and 1am, then a chance of freezing rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of rain or freezing rain before 11am, then rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[weatherheels]

Damn, 12 z is a disaster all around.

[FoothillsNC]

The gfs isn't much for the Southeast. Maybe a few sleet pellets on both sides of the Apps, but the sw winds and warm advection send our temps above freezing pretty quickly. Not much QPF anyway, barely trace amounts the southern piedmont. Northern NC and nw NC could have a little more but they go above freezing also.

[rduwx]

The weekend storm isn't looking very good on the 12z gfs either. Looks like it misses the phase and you get OTS. The bad thing is we don't get any kind of overrunning moisture. Overall not a good 12z gfs run for snow lovers in the SE.

EDIT: Sorry I don't know if I'm supposed to post on the weekend storm in this thread or one of the others. I'm just going to leave it here.

[KChuck]

It seems that I recall a storm this past winter, dates I do not remember, with a similar profile. We had cold in place, models shifted north and warmer, then came back in the last 24 hours resulting in a decent snowfall across the Carolinas. Am I incorrect??? (This referring to Thursday's storm) Foothills... educationally for me speaking... could this be a repeat???

I might not be so quick to write this one off. A few reasons why.

1. We have a mightily strong arctic airmass in place right now. We have wind chill advisories all the way down to southern Florida.

2. While the track of the low may be further west/north than past runs, the fact is, all that cold air that went south has to come back north...and yes it will be modified, but it's still a cP airmass.

3. Overnight soundings from AVL to RDU (and including CLT) look downright icy, especially along the I-40 corridor even through 12Z Thursday.

4. Let's not forget the forecast skill of the NAM at 60+ hours really isn't all that good. Once we get under 48 hours then you can start to worry.

[neatlburbwthrguy]

i had posted this in the wrong thread so here goes...

in regards to the upcoming wednesday event, i see snow in the forecast for parts of north georgia. is this accurate because to me it seems as though if we get any frozen precip on wednesday it would be primarily in the form of freezing rain with maybe a little sleet. my question is more or less do the upper levels support any snow on wednesday in north georgia? any feedback would be greatly appreciated...

[SBUWX23]

The problem with getting super excited about a weak system like this 3 or 4 days out is that any slight shift makes all the difference. We are getting closer to the event, the data is getting better so there are less errors in the forecast in the shorter term. As rduwx said, there were signs yesterday in the ensembles this would happen. Obviously, this could also go back south a bit so its something to watch but as the PV is shifting ever so slightly north it allows this system to move a bit further north. Still could be a messy morning commute Thursday morning from the residual cold air. Freezing rain or drizzle at that hour with the cold temps prior to the event could be pretty bad so lets not forget this.