December 16th event

[audioguy3107]

Cause I don't want to go to work tomorrow!

Preach it brother!!! Anyway.....looks like our precip may be winding down for now unless there's more development off to the west. Wow, what a mess. I think this is a good example of why a lot of people here aren't too high on FFC.......no one treated this like anything big (and i guess as winter storms go, it wasn't)......but the thing for me was the recent temps. It's rare when Atlanta gets ice as it is, but it's very rare to have ice on top of two straight weeks of bitter cold, so the ground was very cold for this time of year, or anytime for that matter. Even though it wasn't a huge storm, the ground temps. made this a real mess. Just wondering if WFOs take that into account in this type of situation?

[RevDodd]

Catching some z's ... if not ZRs. See y'all early tomorrow!

[tgarren]

hey randolph county peeps. the heat island in asheboro is insane considering how small a town it is. when i left my gf house near the airport it was 23. at midstate toyota it had warmed to 32*. by the time i got to bluemist it was back down to 28. here in ramseur its 24.

[Gastonwxman]

I haven't went up yet in my temperature. It's been very slowly dropping by at least .2 degrees every hour. Now sitting at 31.6.

Scratch that. A few minutes after my post, I'm up to 32.1 now.

[WXinCanton]

Ok, calling it a night, gotta get up early to see if we have school. Good luck to everyone in NC for some frozen precip!

I would think you won't have to work tomorrow. The ATL news hype machine is in full effect, looks like the worst has passed but they will play up the carnage that has already happened. IMO the roads will fine in the AM.

[MillzPirate]

quick question hoping for some insight..... road crews in eastern NC put brine out around 9am this morning...... is this not futile to put it out 24 hours before precip arrives? would cars not pick the brine up and make it nearly worthless?

[TheVille]

What time are the winds expected to start, still calm here.

[Jon]

RAH updated the AFD 10:10PM....decent read but should tell us all what we already knew.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND

THURSDAY FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR REGION...

THE VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER OUR REGION IS A RARE

OCCURRENCE THIS EARLY IN THE WINTER SEASON. THE WINTER WEATHER EVENT

EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL ALSO BE A RARE EVENT. IT IS

RARE TO HAVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10.1 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME - EVEN FOR THE FIRST TWO WEEKS OF

DECEMBER AT RALEIGH-DURHAM AND GREENSBORO. THIS MAKES THESE FIRST

TWO WEEKS OF DECEMBER THE COLDEST EVER AT BOTH SITES.

THE CURRENT COLD WAVE BROUGHT LOWS OF 11 TO 16 THIS MORNING WITH

PARTIALS VERIFYING AT 1255/1487M AT GREENSBORO. THESE NUMBERS ARE

60+ METERS BELOW NORMAL EVEN FOR MID JANUARY. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE

TOP OF THE GROUND TO FREEZE ROUGHLY ON A LINE FROM NEAR CHARLOTTE TO

RALEIGH TO WILSON. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE 4 INCH SOIL TEMPS HAVE

FALLEN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S AS WELL... WITH 32.4 REPORTED AT

RALEIGH/LAKE WHEELER/NCSU. THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT AS IT APPEARS THAT

WHEN PRECIPITATION FALLS... NO MATTER HOW LIGHT... IT WILL STICK (IF

FROZEN) OF FREEZE (IF LIQUID) THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK... AND EVEN

BEYOND INTO THE MORNING THURSDAY. EVEN ROAD TEMPS THIS EVENING WERE

BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE HIGH WAS OVERHEAD THIS EVENING... BUT WILL BE RETREATING

OFFSHORE VERY QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WAS STILL IN

PLACE FROM THE MOUNTAINS EASTWARD THIS EVENING WITH TEMPS IN THE

UPPER TEENS IN THE BOONE AREA... AND LOWER TO MID 20S OVER MUCH OF

OUR REGION... EVEN 18 REPORTED AT SMITHFIELD AT 900 PM. DEW POINTS

WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN NEAR ZERO... INDICATING A HUGE

EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL ONCE THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION BEGINS IN

EARNEST EARLY THURSDAY.

GIVEN THE LATEST DATA... AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST... IT APPEARS THAT

THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC HAVE THE BEST SHOT

AT THE WORST WINTRY CONDITIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE H85 WINDS HAVE

ALREADY INCREASED TO 55 KT FROM THE SW AT JACKSON MS (AIMED TOWARD

THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT). EVEN

SURFACE TEMPS WERE IN THE 60S ALONG THE GULF COAST... AND IN THE 50S

AT H85 IN MS/AL. THIS WAA WAS SURGING NE OVER TOP THE VERY COLD

ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE TN VALLEY. RADARS INDICTED AN EXPANDING

AREA OF RAIN... FREEZING RAIN... SLEET... AND SNOW ACROSS NE GA...

EASTERN TN AND KY... IN WARM FRONT FASHION (FROM SW TO NE - LIQUID

TO FREEZING TO FROZEN).

AS THE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WAA EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS

AND INTO THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS

NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER... PRECIP WILL EXPAND EASTWARD. PARTIALS

1550-1290 OR SO... STILL SUPPORT SNOW AT THE ONSET 09Z-12Z ACROSS

OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES... WITH A RAPID CHANGE TO SLEET AND FREEZING

RAIN BETWEEN 12Z-16Z FROM SOUTH TO NORTH (AS PARTIALS RISE TO NEAR

1560 AND 1300 BY 18Z GSO)... THEN FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN IN THE

AFTERNOON AS THE MID LEVEL WARMING OVERWHELMS THE REGION (PARTIALS

FORECAST 1565-1575 IN MID LEVELS AND LOW LEVEL PARTIALS OF 1300

WARMING TO 1310 DURING THE AFTERNOON AT GSO. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH

SNOW FOR A INCH OR SO OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRIAD BEFORE THE CHANGE

OVER TO MAINLY FREEZING RAIN BY 15Z... THEN MOSTLY RAIN BY 20Z. WE

WILL KEEP THE WSW IN PLACE AND THE WORDING GENERALLY UNCHANGED FROM

THE PREVIOUS FOREST.

THE ONLY CHANGES NOTED THIS EVENING MAY BE THAT THE QPF MAY BE A BIT

LOW GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF PWS INCREASING FROM THE GULF INTO THE TN

VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN NC ON

THURSDAY. WE MAY BUMP UP QPF TO 0.3 TO NEAR 0.50 ALONG THE BORDER.

THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO AN INCH OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY UP TO A TENTH

INCH OF FREEZING RAIN... BEFORE IN THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... IT

MAY TAKE LONGER TO SATURATE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TRIAD (MAY BE

AFTER 12Z... AND THIS MAY BE CRITICAL TO GETTING MUCH SNOW BEFORE

THE CHANCE TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN).

REMEMBER ONLY A TRACE OF FREEZING RAIN CAN BE A SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR

BRIDGES/OVERPASSES AND ROADS. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY AREA MAY ONLY SEE THIS... FROM SOUTHERN PINES TO

LILLINGTON TO BENSON... BUT THE GROUND IS COLD ENOUGH THAT ICING

COULD BE A PROBLEM... EVEN OUTSIDE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AREA INTO

FAYETTEVILLE AND LAURINBURG. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE RADAR

CLOSELY AS THIS REGION WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AROUND

DAYBREAK THROUGH 14Z OR SO... WHEN SURFACE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING

THERE. IT MAY TAKE MOST OF THE DAY FROM THE TRIAD TO ROXBORO TO

HENDERSON TO GET SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 32.

[NEGa]

looks like a few more patches to move through, but nothing to stay up for lol

27.6 with a dewpoint of 26 with frz drizzle - just took the dogs out and the road was pretty slippery. hopefully it will hit 33 (how often do i say that ) before i have to leave in the morning

[Jon]

quick question hoping for some insight..... road crews in eastern NC put brine out around 9am this morning...... is this not futile to put it out 24 hours before precip arrives? would cars not pick the brine up and make it nearly worthless?

They do it on major highways the morning before because they simply don't have the man power or resources to do all of the roads they want hours before the event in NC. That's literally the only explaination that I've hard of.

[FoothillsNC]

What time are the winds expected to start, still calm here.

i just got in from outside and was looking under the lights. My bushes and trees have movement , a slight breeze. Temp is holding steady at 32. No precip yet.

[UNCCmetgrad]

Well I think I'm officially giving up on the Metro area. Maybe somehow I'll be pleasantly surprised for a change tomorrow morning. Any Charlotte folks holding out hope?

Latest ob out of KCLT is 33/10 which yields a wet-bulb of about 26 degrees so if we do get precipitation tonight it should be either frozen or freezing. This was never a huge event for the Charlotte area as far as amounts go its the fact that the ground is nearly frozen and that any freezing rain will likely freeze to road surfaces.

[BIG FROSTY]

i just got in from outside and was looking under the lights. My bushes and trees have movement , a slight breeze. Temp is holding steady at 32. No precip yet.

[Brick Tamland]

If we get anything frozen at all, it's going to be a mess on the roads here tomorrow.

[WeatherNC]

This is the best SE thread on the board, and I petition that it is not closed till after the event, post obs and disco. (and 100 plus pager)

we may need a picture thread though, so as to not get lost in the sauce

RWX or staff, archive as such

[Brick Tamland]

quick question hoping for some insight..... road crews in eastern NC put brine out around 9am this morning...... is this not futile to put it out 24 hours before precip arrives? would cars not pick the brine up and make it nearly worthless?

It's a waste of time and money.

[tazaroo]

hey randolph county peeps. the heat island in asheboro is insane considering how small a town it is. when i left my gf house near the airport it was 23. at midstate toyota it had warmed to 32*. by the time i got to bluemist it was back down to 28. here in ramseur its 24.

I notice that all the time. It is not really a heat Island affect I don't believe. Asheboro is not a big city. There is a significant change in elevation between Asheboro and Ramseur of like 400 feet with Asheboro at 900 or so and Ramseur around 500 causing a temperature inversion. Its not like that when the wind is blowing from the North. Asheboro may be a degree less or so then.

[superjames1992]

Not that it matters much at this point, but here's the 0z GFS total QPF at hr 24:

[weatherlover]

i just got in from outside and was looking under the lights. My bushes and trees have movement , a slight breeze. Temp is holding steady at 32. No precip yet.

I still cant get over how bad the radar looks.. I mean I think the main issue is going to be just getting the precip in here.. What little bit was down to our south looks to be vanishing on radar.. Whats the best radar to use??

[Carvers Gap]

28 F and light snow in Kingsport, TN...

[FoothillsNC]

I've got very light sleet. No snow.

[georgiasnow]

You did see rain in their forecast. They changed it to rain and took out the freezing rain/sleet mention in the early afternoon for the Gainesville/Hall County forecast. They quickly added the freezing rain back in a little later, and it progressed back to snow/sleet/freezing rain, once reports came in of snow around the Atlanta area.

[BIG FROSTY]

GFS giving me pretty decent amounts here if somehow I keep it under 32 throughout the storm, I will have a pretty bad ice storm on top of a few inches of snow.

[iceman]

hey randolph county peeps. the heat island in asheboro is insane considering how small a town it is. when i left my gf house near the airport it was 23. at midstate toyota it had warmed to 32*. by the time i got to bluemist it was back down to 28. here in ramseur its 24.

you kin to herman garren?

[Jon]

I still cant get over how bad the radar looks.. I mean I think the main issue is going to be just getting the precip in here.. What little bit was down to our south looks to be vanishing on radar.. Whats the best radar to use??

My two cents...

Free trials of grlevel3 and grlevel2 are available here: http://www.grlevelx.com

http://www.wunderground.com/radar is pretty good...hit a yellow station indicator for High Def radar, you can turn on storm tracks, smoothing, snow/ice, and many other advanced options to the left side.

[UNCCmetgrad]

i just got in from outside and was looking under the lights. My bushes and trees have movement , a slight breeze. Temp is holding steady at 32. No precip yet.

Looking at the Terminal Doppler out of CLT barely shows precipitation over your area. At your distance from the radar, the beam altitude is about 1300-1400ft AGL so its probably evaporating just below this altitude. Probably will reach the ground shortly, but it appears this batch of precip is progressing off to the southeast quickly.

[WXinCanton]

It's a waste of time and money.

and you hoping for day off work is what?

[iceman]

I still cant get over how bad the radar looks.. I mean I think the main issue is going to be just getting the precip in here.. What little bit was down to our south looks to be vanishing on radar.. Whats the best radar to use??

radar looks good actually.

[Gastonwxman]

I've got very light sleet. No snow.

To make matters worse for us, check out the precip. in SC. We just shafted badly from that just now. There are reports of light snow/sleet falling in those areas from a couple of friends of mine.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

[audioguy3107]

From the AJC, and this is only one report, apparently it's an utter mess on the metro roadways right now.

10:42 p.m.: Gwinnett County firefighters responded to 178 incidents between 6 p.m. and 9:30 p.m., fire Capt. Tommy Rutledge said. Two wrecks resulted in serious injuries. No injuries were reported in a 15-vehicle pileup on Old Peachtree Road and I-85 North in Suwanee, Rutledge said.

I can only imagine what would have happened at rush hour if our precip had started about 4 hours earlier. Without any warning (for the most part), there would be a legion of people stuck on the roadways.