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December 16th event


RaleighWx

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Really surprised but I guess they would rather be safe than sorry since it's supposed to start about the time people are driving to school. Maybe they saw what happened farther south today and didn't want that to happen :)

Currently:

Temp. 23.4

Dew Pt. 6

Humidity 47%

(courtesy of wunderground @ Winding Creek golf course)

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wow, those who have scanners on their cells, check out some of the n ga counties ems stations. roads are iced, cars are in ditches (including police), and they are starting to close roads. a 7 car pile up just happened at one of the intersections in town

its 28 with freezing rain

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Damn. Robert sure is been a Debbie downer tonight! j/k

I really don't want to be , but only tonight have I really had agood hard look at this , today I was in and out, busy. But now after thinking it over I see why N. Ga and ATL got hit, but I think people around here are looking downstream and assuming we'll be a skating rink too, but I kind of doubt it for the reasons I listed. I do think we'll have a few hour period of sleet to ZR ( each minute that goes by though I'm thinking less snow here on the front end), but the main thing is the reason we will have southwest winds here, N GA had southeast winds and that upslopes them a little and helps lock in their cold, the moisture was there in time with low dewpoints, ours our going up by the hour because of southwest winds. So its a race now. When the bands of precip make it here we will drop down to our wetbulbs, but our wet bulbs are rising much faster than Georgias today so we can 't lock in the cold air at the surface. The southwest winds will scour it. Make sense? i really wish I could be bold and call for significant ice here (not that I'm a fan of it..but alittle interesting still) but the precip as well is going to be more spotty here than it was in Georgia. Once you get above 40 or so, the further north in NC you get the more precip, the further south the less. Just the way this setup is. Still its good to have an advisory going for in the morning, I just don't think we'll be subfreezing all that long tomorrow.

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wow, those who have scanners on their cells, check out some of the n ga counties ems stations. roads are iced, cars are in ditches (including police), and they are starting to close roads. a 7 car pile up just happened at one of the intersections in town

its 28 with freezing rain

Yeah, ice is far worse to drive on than snow. Last year during the 2/12 storm we had a few inches on the pavement and people were able to drive around with some difficulty. Now, we have 1/10" ice on our driveway and can't get up it in a 4WD vehicle. I can't imagine trying to drive in the mountains with ice on the roads...

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Yeah, ice is far worse to drive on than snow. Last year during the 2/12 storm we had a few inches on the pavement and people were able to drive around with some difficulty. Now, we have 1/10" ice on our driveway and can't get up it in a 4WD vehicle. I can't imagine trying to drive in the mountains with ice on the roads...

amazing what just .10 ice can do, isnt it? and you are right, driving in hilly terrain would be a nightmare tonight.

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Its called the truth. Now drink it!!

Makes complete sense man.

I need some sleep anyway.

Thanks for the detailed discussion on our area!!

I really don't want to be , but only tonight have I really had agood hard look at this , today I was in and out, busy. But now after thinking it over I see why N. Ga and ATL got hit, but I think people around here are looking downstream and assuming we'll be a skating rink too, but I kind of doubt it for the reasons I listed. I do think we'll have a few hour period of sleet to ZR ( each minute that goes by though I'm thinking less snow here on the front end), but the main thing is the reason we will have southwest winds here, N GA had southeast winds and that upslopes them a little and helps lock in their cold, the moisture was there in time with low dewpoints, ours our going up by the hour because of southwest winds. So its a race now. When the bands of precip make it here we will drop down to our wetbulbs, but our wet bulbs are rising much faster than Georgias today so we can 't lock in the cold air at the surface. The southwest winds will scour it. Make sense? i really wish I could be bold and call for significant ice here (not that I'm a fan of it..but alittle interesting still) but the precip as well is going to be more spotty here than it was in Georgia. Once you get above 40 or so, the further north in NC you get the more precip, the further south the less. Just the way this setup is. Still its good to have an advisory going for in the morning, I just don't think we'll be subfreezing all that long tomorrow.

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I really don't want to be , but only tonight have I really had agood hard look at this , today I was in and out, busy. But now after thinking it over I see why N. Ga and ATL got hit, but I think people around here are looking downstream and assuming we'll be a skating rink too, but I kind of doubt it for the reasons I listed. I do think we'll have a few hour period of sleet to ZR ( each minute that goes by though I'm thinking less snow here on the front end), but the main thing is the reason we will have southwest winds here, N GA had southeast winds and that upslopes them a little and helps lock in their cold, the moisture was there in time with low dewpoints, ours our going up by the hour because of southwest winds. So its a race now. When the bands of precip make it here we will drop down to our wetbulbs, but our wet bulbs are rising much faster than Georgias today so we can 't lock in the cold air at the surface. The southwest winds will scour it. Make sense? i really wish I could be bold and call for significant ice here (not that I'm a fan of it..but alittle interesting still) but the precip as well is going to be more spotty here than it was in Georgia. Once you get above 40 or so, the further north in NC you get the more precip, the further south the less. Just the way this setup is. Still its good to have an advisory going for in the morning, I just don't think we'll be subfreezing all that long tomorrow.

I agree with you Robert, we're not in the best location for this one for all the reasons you mentioned. CLT is back up to 33, and while there's still a long way to go the SW winds are going to be a problem for temps. Those north of us will have the better chance, we'll see what happens but it's not an ideal situation for us.

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They obviously underestimated the magnitude of the freezing rain/sleet though. In the forecast you posted, it calls for a low in the mid 30s. They didn't issue the WWA for the metro until the event was already well underway. Complex situations like this are hard to forecast, of course, but there is no question that FFC missed the mark.

Agree! there was no mention of impact on roads till it was too late and rush hour in ATL. It was a tricky forecast for sure, but from the obs in AL they could have done better IMO.

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I agree with you Robert, we're not in the best location for this one for all the reasons you mentioned. CLT is back up to 33, and while there's still a long way to go the SW winds are going to be a problem for temps. Those north of us will have the better chance, we'll see what happens but it's not an ideal situation for us.

I think people in NC look how low their temps are now and think theres no way the temps can climb that much, but they certainly can on southwest winds. North Georgia is cold and icy tonight because of the position of the High . They're getting a little upsloping and locked in their surface, so it will be aslow creep upwards their. Its a version of damming in a way. But for most of NC, this won't be damming and the southwest winds will rule the roost. Starting from southwest to northeast, the above freezing air will sweep in and traverse the whole state I think. I'ma little concerned about extrem NW NC, could be some damming there at the surface, but the models may be moving this cold air out not fast enough this time, as opposed to the usual opposite. Still I'm not downplaying some sections getting a good snow hit in the northern piedmont or some glazing, but thats about the area it changes I think. Almost 32 now.

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Seems the Acworth, Woodstock, Alpharetta, Duluth, Suwanee, Gainesville areas got really beat up with glazed roads.

I am hearing reports of temps coming up to the west, but I have not looked.

Rome is pretty much shut down. Too many wrecks to count according to 911

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I think people in NC look how low their temps are now and think theres no way the temps can climb that much, but they certainly can on southwest winds. North Georgia is cold and icy tonight because of the position of the High . They're getting a little upsloping and locked in their surface, so it will be aslow creep upwards their. Its a version of damming in a way. But for most of NC, this won't be damming and the southwest winds will rule the roost. Starting from southwest to northeast, the above freezing air will sweep in and traverse the whole state I think. I'ma little concerned about extrem NW NC, could be some damming there at the surface, but the models may be moving this cold air out not fast enough this time, as opposed to the usual opposite. Still I'm not downplaying some sections getting a good snow hit in the northern piedmont or some glazing, but thats about the area it changes I think. Almost 32 now.

very good read here and post

xwx

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