December 16th event

[strongwxnc]

Nice. Have a few man!!

HA! Just cracked a beer after my 4 hour commute home. Not bad for 18 miles.. Temp is 30.4. Roads are an absolute joke. Cherokee County is nasty bad on the roads.. Not just bridges either. I could smoke a cigarette even though I quit 7 years ago

[CLTwx]

33.2/15.6

I'm not feeling the love for you, me, burger and Foothills tonite. Thermometer just wont agree with us (and the WAA!)

[eyes2theskies]

I keep dropping here in Indian Trail not a lot, but temp is still going down. 31.4.

[Tullioz]

I'm starting to get a little more concerned about ice accumulation here along the NC/VA border. The 0z NAM has around .5" precipitation which has been increasing with each model run. The GFS at 18z had around.6" . Both Models have the 850 temperatures warming above freezing about half way through the event which would suggest a couple of inches of snow followed by some significant ice accumulations. Close to 1/4" anyway. Hopefully we will see more in the way of sleet as opposed to freezing rain.

Temp. 24.3

DP 12.1

[superjames1992]

Which model do they use?

WRAL's in-house model is the MM5.

[tgarren]

Did you change your username from eastern? Good to see some more central NC posters. I'm not sensing anything more than what nws/local media have out for tonight. Moisture starved and no help maintaining our cold air. I can say anything that falls before lunchtime tomorrow would become and stay frozen, this includes roads espeacilly. Trying to get a decent winter weather event based on .10-.20 modeled qpf is a crap shoot. Throw in southerly winds and it's hard to get excited. My focus is on the weekend. Got a feeling the euro, based on its ensemble package will trend toward the Canadian tonight. Regardless if we luck out Thursday and this weekend, The Cold ain't letting up until 2011. And yes the airport is doing much better with it;s readings, but the jury is still out.

Big Frosty, if the models verify you'll end up with a season total of 5-6 inches to date. Not to shabby considering the first official day of winter is still several days away! I beleive you threw out 8 inches for the season back in the fall/summer when we where all discussing the doom and gloom winter pre-season LR forecast ideas being tossed about.

yeah i was cncwx over there i think. i didnt post much just like to read. dont know enough about it to add anything useful to the conversation other than obs lol.

[FallsLake]

Which model do they use?

I have no idea. Anybody else know?

Edit: Thanks superJames1992

[lilj4425]

I can't remember the last time Atlanta has gotten snow and ice while Greenville hasn't. This is one weird winter.

[NEGa]

HA! Just cracked a beer after my 4 hour commute home. Not bad for 18 miles.. Temp is 30.4. Roads are an absolute joke. Cherokee County is nasty bad on the roads.. Not just bridges either. I could smoke a cigarette even though I quit 7 years ago

sort of like snow jam in the early 80s, this is ice jam!

Radar is intensifying, the bunch coming across metro ATL now. One more shot that looks to put down some more glaze.

Friend of mine has been sitting on 75 south of sixes road for 3 hours. People parked their cars 2 hours ago and started walking.

glad you made it back. i was texting with a friend on hwy 400 and they said had been stuck 3.5 hours. i sort of thought they were joking, but after these two posts i am feeling sort of bad for doubting

[AJF0602]

There is definately a huge contrast with temps across the state. Here in Greenville we are still dropping under clear skies. We're already below the forecasted low of 22.

[Itunis]

I can't remember the last time Atlanta has gotten snow and ice while Greenville hasn't. This is one weird winter.

Early January last winter? Usually if it hits Atlanta it will hit you guys but it depends on the setup. And this is far more of a ZR event than a snow event.

[Isopycnic]

WRAL's in-house model is the MM5.

k';tanks

[WeatherNC]

21/12 @ PGV, forecasted low of 22, dp has risen 9 degrees (F) over the past 3 hours, while the temp has dropped 6. Looking upstream at the national mosaic, 0z NAM makes sense in that the bulk of what falls here will be in the liquid form after 1pm, instead of a once and done hit between 7am and 1pm, as advertised earlier. That area of QPF in IA is disconcerting, as it is likely what the model is picking up on working through between 1 - 7pm tomorrow.

[tgarren]

NCSNOW whats your temp? looks like we are rising now... 2 degree rise in an hour its rising faster than it dropped

[Bozart]

Yeah FFC really blew this one... Atleast add a chance of zr, not all rain like they did this morning. Not the first time they have screwed up as all of us Georgians know...

FFC issued this zone forecast for the region including Atlanta at 4:24 a.m. --

TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

So what's the problem?

[magpiemaniac]

Dropped from 33 to 25 in the last five hours in Greensboro. Just a waiting game now.

[WeatherNC]

There is definately a huge contrast with temps across the state. Here in Greenville we are still dropping under clear skies. We're already below the forecasted low of 22.

Please update your profile to reflect location, Greenville NC or SC based on the report, but take it as NC based on the obs...

[FoothillsNC]

I may end up being wrong and the southern sections of NC could end up with something significant overnight, but here's my thinking:. the reason Alabama and esp. Ga had a big ice hit today and this evening was good timing while the cold air was still in place . Now the high is in east Georgia almost on the Atlantic coast and the winds are decently out of the south and southwest as you go from eastern Ga right into western and central SC straight into southern NC. The winds go easterly for Tennessee, and that helped them hold cold, and for the ATL region today a little upslopeing with the winds and the low dewpoints locked in the surface freezing for a long time. But that probably WONT be the case in western SC and southern foothills and southern Piedmont of NC because there's no help from any source to keep our surface temps down. Its a straight shot from the air in eastern Georgia now and already temps are climbing as you would expect on southwest winds, many places in the Upstate are middle 30's. Wetbulbs are climbing a degree every 1.5 hours or so. My temp went from 29 to 31 and is almost 32 now. I know when the precip if it arrives will bring some evaporational cooling but the temps will begin to rise shortly after saturation. Once into northern NC, its a bit different with much colder dewpoints and more westerly component to the winds, and for Ky and ne Tenn, easterly winds so not much warming. The worst possible place for any wintry weather in this setup is western SC, eastern GA and southern NC. Plus, we're removed from the best dynamics on this side of the Apps, and the models show some skipping completely for a while in southern NC foothills, and what little there is is patchy, moving quickly. Much more precip to the north of 40.

for some reason i can't attach the graphic, but it explains this I typed. The RUC has the freezing line zipping through about the whole state of NC. I'm not trying be a downer but overall south of 40 in NC this looks like a quick dose and then its about over, esp the futher south you get. The southwest winds are the culprit. Atlanta and points west got started with low dewpoints and the right timing to lock it in, so this isn't exactly the same for NC. You can't look downstream and assume what happened in ATL areas is going to happen here. I do think we'll get some quick glazing and a few minutes of snow to start near 74, but not much.

[NEGa]

Early January last winter? Usually if it hits Atlanta it will hit you guys but it depends on the setup. And this is far more of a ZR event than a snow event.

ditto - the snow was cool while it lasted, but less than 30 minutes. all freezing rain now, just went on the deck and its pretty slippery so definitely getting a glazing over

[jrips27]

HA! Just cracked a beer after my 4 hour commute home. Not bad for 18 miles.. Temp is 30.4. Roads are an absolute joke. Cherokee County is nasty bad on the roads.. Not just bridges either. I could smoke a cigarette even though I quit 7 years ago

Rough night out there man! Just relax and now.

[Itunis]

FFC issued this zone forecast for the region including Atlanta at 4:24 a.m. --

TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

So what's the problem?

Their morning forecast seemed like a sort of CYA thing; they included frozen precip just in case there was the odd report of sleet or ZR. Obviously temps got lower than expected and precip was more plentiful, so boom.

[TheVille]

I may end up being wrong and the southern sections of NC could end up with something significant overnight, but here's my thinking:. the reason Alabama and esp. Ga had a big ice hit today and this evening was good timing while the cold air was still in place . Now the high is in east Georgia almost on the Atlantic coast and the winds are decently out of the south and southwest as you go from eastern Ga right into western and central SC straight into southern NC. The winds go easterly for Tennessee, and that helped them hold cold, and for the ATL region today a little upslopeing with the winds and the low dewpoints locked in the surface freezing for a long time. But that probably WONT be the case in western SC and southern foothills and southern Piedmont of NC because there's no help from any source to keep our surface temps down. Its a straight shot from the air in eastern Georgia now and already temps are climbing as you would expect on southwest winds, many places in the Upstate are middle 30's. Wetbulbs are climbing a degree every 1.5 hours or so. My temp went from 29 to 31 and is almost 32 now. I know when the precip if it arrives will bring some evaporational cooling but the temps will begin to rise shortly after saturation. Once into northern NC, its a bit different with much colder dewpoints and more westerly component to the winds, and for Ky and ne Tenn, easterly winds so not much warming. The worst possible place for any wintry weather in this setup is western SC, eastern GA and southern NC. Plus, we're removed from the best dynamics on this side of the Apps, and the models show some skipping completely for a while in southern NC foothills, and what little there is is patchy, moving quickly. Much more precip to the north of 40.

for some reason i can't attach the graphic, but it explains this I typed. The RUC has the freezing line zipping through about the whole state of NC. I'm not trying be a downer but overall south of 40 in NC this looks like a quick dose and then its about over, esp the futher south you get. The southwest winds are the culprit. Atlanta and points west got started with low dewpoints and the right timing to lock it in, so this isn't exactly the same for NC. You can't look downstream and assume what happened in ATL areas is going to happen here. I do think we'll get some quick glazing and a few minutes of snow to start near 74, but not much.

Feel bad for the people south of 40 but i'm not one of them, crossing my fingers for you.

[weatherheels]

Dropped from 33 to 25 in the last five hours in Greensboro. Just a waiting game now.

23.7 over here in Kernersville. Now we just need to get some moisture and turn some things white.

[NCBlizzard]

I may end up being wrong and the southern sections of NC could end up with something significant overnight, but here's my thinking:. the reason Alabama and esp. Ga had a big ice hit today and this evening was good timing while the cold air was still in place . Now the high is in east Georgia almost on the Atlantic coast and the winds are decently out of the south and southwest as you go from eastern Ga right into western and central SC straight into southern NC. The winds go easterly for Tennessee, and that helped them hold cold, and for the ATL region today a little upslopeing with the winds and the low dewpoints locked in the surface freezing for a long time. But that probably WONT be the case in western SC and southern foothills and southern Piedmont of NC because there's no help from any source to keep our surface temps down. Its a straight shot from the air in eastern Georgia now and already temps are climbing as you would expect on southwest winds, many places in the Upstate are middle 30's. Wetbulbs are climbing a degree every 1.5 hours or so. My temp went from 29 to 31 and is almost 32 now. I know when the precip if it arrives will bring some evaporational cooling but the temps will begin to rise shortly after saturation. Once into northern NC, its a bit different with much colder dewpoints and more westerly component to the winds, and for Ky and ne Tenn, easterly winds so not much warming. The worst possible place for any wintry weather in this setup is western SC, eastern GA and southern NC. Plus, we're removed from the best dynamics on this side of the Apps, and the models show some skipping completely for a while in southern NC foothills, and what little there is is patchy, moving quickly. Much more precip to the north of 40.

for some reason i can't attach the graphic, but it explains this I typed. The RUC has the freezing line zipping through about the whole state of NC. I'm not trying be a downer but overall south of 40 in NC this looks like a quick dose and then its about over, esp the futher south you get. The southwest winds are the culprit. Atlanta and points west got started with low dewpoints and the right timing to lock it in, so this isn't exactly the same for NC. You can't look downstream and assume what happened in ATL areas is going to happen here. I do think we'll get some quick glazing and a few minutes of snow to start near 74, but not much.

It seems like we can never get it to work out here

[NCSNOW]

Temp has rose a degree to 30 here in the foothills (Hudson). Shocked at how cold it is towards the coast and in places that are usually warmer? Always seem to find a way to get shafted around here

Its s clear as a bell and no winds. Thats what radiational cooling will do for you.

[jrips27]

FFC issued this zone forecast for the region including Atlanta at 4:24 a.m. --

TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.

TONIGHT...CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT.

So what's the problem?

Thanks for bringing that to my attention. Could've swore I saw all rain in their forecast. Guess I owe them an apology!

[wolfpack]

25/3 in the home town of Brick.

[NEGa]

just turned on the scanner for habersham and white county. lots of cars off the road and in ditches. you can hear the phones ringing in the back ground nearly constantly

[Brian]

Believe me, it is no fun in Atlanta ---think 5 millions cars....

[burgertime]

I may end up being wrong and the southern sections of NC could end up with something significant overnight, but here's my thinking:. the reason Alabama and esp. Ga had a big ice hit today and this evening was good timing while the cold air was still in place . Now the high is in east Georgia almost on the Atlantic coast and the winds are decently out of the south and southwest as you go from eastern Ga right into western and central SC straight into southern NC. The winds go easterly for Tennessee, and that helped them hold cold, and for the ATL region today a little upslopeing with the winds and the low dewpoints locked in the surface freezing for a long time. But that probably WONT be the case in western SC and southern foothills and southern Piedmont of NC because there's no help from any source to keep our surface temps down. Its a straight shot from the air in eastern Georgia now and already temps are climbing as you would expect on southwest winds, many places in the Upstate are middle 30's. Wetbulbs are climbing a degree every 1.5 hours or so. My temp went from 29 to 31 and is almost 32 now. I know when the precip if it arrives will bring some evaporational cooling but the temps will begin to rise shortly after saturation. Once into northern NC, its a bit different with much colder dewpoints and more westerly component to the winds, and for Ky and ne Tenn, easterly winds so not much warming. The worst possible place for any wintry weather in this setup is western SC, eastern GA and southern NC. Plus, we're removed from the best dynamics on this side of the Apps, and the models show some skipping completely for a while in southern NC foothills, and what little there is is patchy, moving quickly. Much more precip to the north of 40.

for some reason i can't attach the graphic, but it explains this I typed. The RUC has the freezing line zipping through about the whole state of NC. I'm not trying be a downer but overall south of 40 in NC this looks like a quick dose and then its about over, esp the futher south you get. The southwest winds are the culprit. Atlanta and points west got started with low dewpoints and the right timing to lock it in, so this isn't exactly the same for NC. You can't look downstream and assume what happened in ATL areas is going to happen here. I do think we'll get some quick glazing and a few minutes of snow to start near 74, but not much.