xwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 some of GA yes, but not all I don't think. So far the moisture is coming from NW at first then due west, and mainly looks to affect northern third of GA initially, while theres still cold air and low dewpoints. The trends though continue to sink south a little. Still plenty of time on this, but If I were in N. Ga I would be seriously watching the models and forecasts...that would be the best chance at snow or ice I think. Interesting because the models are having trouble on that aspect. i dont' trust it. They all have a distinct drying on this side of the Apps, while giving TN and KY almost 1". Its really early to make a forecast on qpf yet though, so I'd wait until later, but for now "significant". Thats correct and remember dp's will be in the single digits east of the apps going into wedngt..... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice picture, James...just realized what it was...the CAROLINA CRUSHER! I was 14 I believe, you were probably a lot younger haha... I was 16 then and will never forget that night in Cary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Nice picture, James...just realized what it was...the CAROLINA CRUSHER! I was 14 I believe, you were probably a lot younger haha... I was only seven at the time. Wow, it's hard to believe it was that long. I remember it quite vividly, though. It's one of the earliest snows I can remember well. I went to bed that night expecting 2-4" of snow and that I would go to school the next morning, then woke up at 8:53 AM wondering what was up. I looked outside and was amazed at the sheer amount of snow everywhere. If I was older, I would have stayed up all that night and actually seen the magical snowfall, but alas. We got a nice dumping of 5" or so a week before the Crusher, as well. I remember playing in this huge snow pile at the Greensboro Coliseum weeks/months later that was still there. It was tens of feet high. If I recall, it was pretty warm that February, unfortunately. I hope to see something similar to that again. I thought we may get that last January 30th, but it stopped short at 8" (not that I will complain about that!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I was in kindergarten during that storm. I remember measuring 29 inches in my yard at my dads house, which is truly amazing when you're 5 years old. The case study of the storm was really interesting to read, because I never had figured out why we got so much more snow than we were supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Im ready to see how the 00z GFS looks, im pulling for a nice event weds night into this weekend since ill be headed to northern sc weds morning through Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thursday 2m temps per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Thursday 2m temps per gfs No one will like the THU 18z 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 much warmer this run wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Im ready to see how the 00z GFS looks, im pulling for a nice event weds night into this weekend since ill be headed to northern sc weds morning through Christmas. 00z gfs.....looks lighter ans warmer below 850mb..........strong low level winds from the sw on this run gives the north carolina piedmont alot of zr,,,,,,,,,,,,no sn.......... xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 yes it will....and the hi sn ratios........... xwx Ratios don't look that high even where it snows with the wed/thur system. Throw in the fact you are talking about amounts on a system 3 days away that might not even happen yet, the weenism here is a bit much. You need to reel it back a little bit. Indeed the gfs doesn't look that impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I was 16 then and will never forget that night in Cary. I was in kindergarten during that storm. I remember measuring 29 inches in my yard at my dads house, which is truly amazing when you're 5 years old. The case study of the storm was really interesting to read, because I never had figured out why we got so much more snow than we were supposed to. Yeah, you all got a good bit more than I that night. I "only" got a foot. The January 18th-30th period was the best wintry weather period of my life, though, with two snow events and two light ZR events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 00z gfs.....looks lighter ans warmer below 850mb..........strong low level winds from the sw on this run gives the north carolina piedmont alot of zr,,,,,,,,,,,,no sn.......... xwx Ok, now I know you are full of it. There are no "strong low level winds" on the gfs on any sounding anywhere in the carolinas. Unless of course you consider 5 knots strong. If you don't know what you are talking about, don't bother. No one has the patience for it and I sure don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Big time northward trend on 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Bigtime northward trend on 0z GFS. Its not a north trend by any means. Its a slower start time and it looks weaker at the onset so the evaporative cooling does not take full effect before 2m temps warm. This is NOT further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Ratios don't look that high even where it snows with the wed/thur system. Throw in the fact you are talking about amounts on a system 3 days away that might not even happen yet, the weenism here is a bit much. You need to reel it back a little bit. Indeed the gfs doesn't look that impressive at all. sn ratio 20-27<15.1............this per nam 00z guidance sir..........gfs tngt is zr and no sn for the piedmonts at face value...........The 940-945mb to 1000mb is screaming zr per gfs tngt xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Its not a north trend by any means. Its a slower start time and it looks weaker at the onset so the evaporative cooling does not take full effect before 2m temps warm. This is NOT further north. Yep. Just not as wet as prior runs. With a situation like this, you need evaporational cooling to help you with no caa source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 The GFS handles the NE vortex different from most of the other runs, and certainly the NAM. Its quick to warm up, and has lighter qpf. Could be a hiccup, maybe a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Its not a north trend by any means. Its a slower start time and it looks weaker at the onset so the evaporative cooling does not take full effect before 2m temps warm. This is NOT further north. Yeah, you're right. I just took a quick look at it and thought it was further north, but no dice. I guess we'll see what the infamous Dr. No has to say tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Maybe this is what we need! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 gfs looks very nice for the weekend event secs. still a long way to go though interesting week ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 correct....agree..........during waa events stay w/the nam........and remember.........the gfs has a bias of crushing systems with the northern jet.........thats the case on tngt's run xwx were you on Eastern? I dont recall that username. but anyway thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 were you on Eastern? I dont recall that username. but anyway thanks for the analysis. No sir..........I used to be on the wright wx board along time ago...........This is a nicw wx board.... XWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well this doesn't mean squat from 6+ days out. So yes I'll take the foot of snow this weekend off the GFS. What's interesting is it agrees with the euro 12z run. Not Identical, but see's the pattern and paints a very simillar picture. As for mid-week. I'll listen to Robert and wait and see if it's a hicup or what. Still expect a minimum of front end icing in Triad even with this gfs run. I just know that in the past the gfs always use to hic-up, loose storms e.t.c in day 3-5 range. Not sure if that old sterotype still applies after it got a facelift last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It sure is nice to have the gfs showing the weekend storm now. Especially knowing it's moving towards the euro solution. There's not going to be much sleeping this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 It sure is nice to have the gfs showing the weekend storm now. Especially knowing it's moving towards the euro solution. There's not going to be much sleeping this week. Well you and I are going to need more cold air for both these chances. Every major model has the storm, do hopefully someone can get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't like to be in the sweet spot 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stretch64 Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 There is warming above the 850....thats what solidifies the static stability.............warm air inversion over cd air xwx Thanks for the explanation. appreciate the education. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Well you and I are going to need more cold air for both these chances. Every major model has the storm, do hopefully someone can get some snow. At this point I'm more worried about the cold air on Thursday. With the scond system I'm more worried about if there's is going to be a storm. It was nice to see the gfs go to more of a euro solution. If the models are still showing the storm later in the week then I'll start worrying about the track. More than likely that will determine our p-type but it's way to early in the game to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 I don't like to be in the sweet spot 7 days out. You do, however, prefer to be in Chapel Hill and not in South Carolina, am I right?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 13, 2010 Share Posted December 13, 2010 Long-term excerpt from KCAE's discussion tonight: MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN STARTING WEDNESDAY...SHOWING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH AN ATTENDANT COASTAL LOW LIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY. RESULTING NEARLY ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE COUNTRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM STEADILY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS REGARDING A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL FLOW WHICH COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND QUICKER TO MOVE THE PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS BASED ON SLOWER ECMWF TIMING. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS FOR PERSISTENCE SAKE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION...THERE COULD BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THIS WEEK. 500 MB FLOW BECOMES AMPLIFIED ONCE AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND AND COLD AIR IS EXPECTED AGAIN TO SETTLE OVER THE FORECAST AREA...DROPPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. THE GFS IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO QUICKLY DEVELOP DUE TO HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY...BUT IS AN OUTLIER WITH THIS SOLUTION AND THEREFORE WILL BE DISREGARDED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.