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December 16th event


RaleighWx

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I'm afraid the moisture might quit before we get anything meaningful. Then comes the warm air. My high was 34.7 at 3:09. The temp has been falling since my last post, now at .5 deg/hr. The cloud height estimate has gone from 6500 feet earlier (-2 deg) to about 4300 (10 deg). Lower and warmer.

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Been getting some pretty good sleet. Biggest pellets I've seen in years. Usually I get drizzle sleet, but this was the real thing. Wish I didn't have a warm nose coming. Oh, well, maybe this weekend. But my real hopes are on or about New Years. That is when climo says "yes". T

:thumbsup: hope it lasts a while. 33.8 here and looks like a little light precip breaking out over ne ga. still awfully dry and just seeing virga

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well the 18z NAM keeps PGV below freezing until the precip is basically gone... hmm

This statement is incorrect based on soundings for the airport and bufkit data at RWI. We go above freezing at the surface around 1pm, prior to that a tenth has fallen on with the 18z NAM. Even at 10am, the warm nose shows up at 825, around 1.3 C, so that would be IP in lighter returns. Between 1pm and 7pm, close to two tenths falls, and it would be all RN verbatim this run.

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Something to keep in mind for the NC foothills folks tonight that I've been kinda wondering if it might happen. In-situ damming up to 850mb. This has happened in the past during overrunning situations before. You can see it on the latest ruc. I think the key is a decent burst of snow after midnight. We need some good returns to show up, saturate the column, and we could hold onto snow longer than anticipated. The ruc has the northern foothills holding onto a solid 4 to 5 hour period of snow.

http://www.nco.ncep....uc_p01_014l.gif

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Been getting some pretty good sleet. Biggest pellets I've seen in years. Usually I get drizzle sleet, but this was the real thing. Wish I didn't have a warm nose coming. Oh, well, maybe this weekend. But my real hopes are on or about New Years. That is when climo says "yes". T

If the -nao holds...It is when I will be expecting the best chance at white frozen goodness as well. Sleet won't cool the boundary layer as efficiently as snow or rain. Sleet is usually a good alternative if you want to drive home in control of your vehicle.

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:thumbsup: hope it lasts a while. 33.8 here and looks like a little light precip breaking out over ne ga. still awfully dry and just seeing virga

34 here on one unit. I just looked out and it was spitting drizzle.

I have seen this play so many times..if the precip gets here strong enough to give me some good frozen stuff, the waa looks down and says, "sorry, none for you, this is headed for Carolina" :)

Curse you SnoKing! T

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Just getting back to the puter. Been mending fences in the pasture,

GSP seems to think we have p type issues until 2pm

Thursday: Rain or freezing rain, becoming all rain after 2pm. High near 42. South wind between 9 and 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected.

That is a change from the morning package..

I will take it.

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I'm afraid the moisture might quit before we get anything meaningful. Then comes the warm air. My high was 34.7 at 3:09. The temp has been falling since my last post, now at .5 deg/hr. The cloud height estimate has gone from 6500 feet earlier (-2 deg) to about 4300 (10 deg). Lower and warmer.

Yep, radar is not impressive. So close... yet so far away. :rolleyes:

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If the -nao holds...It is when I will be expecting the best chance at white frozen goodness as well. Sleet won't cool the boundary layer as efficiently as snow or rain. Sleet is usually a good alternative if you want to drive home in control of your vehicle.

Did you get some of this when it came thru? Tony

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Hopefully we have better luck this weekend. Eventually we have to get a decent storm with all of this cold air right ?

I doubt we see much this weekend. I can't really complain at this point, I've seen at least a light dusting twice in the past week. We would be looking at some impressive icing though if we could keep up a steady drizzle with wetbulbs in the upper 20s...

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This statement is incorrect based on soundings for the airport and bufkit data at RWI. We go above freezing at the surface around 1pm, prior to that a tenth has fallen on with the 18z NAM. Even at 10am, the warm nose shows up at 825, around 1.3 C, so that would be IP in lighter returns. Between 1pm and 7pm, close to two tenths falls, and it would be all RN verbatim this run.

Meh if this is how it is gonna go down then I almost rather it just be all rain. Nothing worse than getting a nice snow going and having it turn to rain.

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31/18 here. It appears that once again lack of precip will prevent us from having a significant event...there is a dusting of sleet visible on the deck and the driveway is decidedly crunchy.

yep - sounds familiar doesnt it? the old catch 22. cold enough but not enough moisture. tons of moisture and temp goes above freezing. we just cant seem to win lol

a few stray flakes here, but i am not even sure its enough to qualify as a 'flurry' at this point :whistle:

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I doubt we see much this weekend. I can't really complain at this point, I've seen at least a light dusting twice in the past week. We would be looking at some impressive icing though if we could keep up a steady drizzle with wetbulbs in the upper 20s...

Shoot, I'm just happy to be staying close. We actually have moisture and cold trying occupy the same space for a moment, and doing it over and over. I've seen flurries and or sleet twice now and endured some hellacious virga showers already this Dec. Sooner or late we'll pop one. T

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I doubt we see much this weekend. I can't really complain at this point, I've seen at least a light dusting twice in the past week. We would be looking at some impressive icing though if we could keep up a steady drizzle with wetbulbs in the upper 20s...

I'm kinda surprised! I've got some ice forming on our back deck and rails... The light drizzle is doing the the trick! :whistle:

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I'm counting on enough moisture to at least make it drizzle. And freeze of course. All I can do is sit, wait, and watch. popcorn.gif

Just not seeing anything coming after this initial batch http://www.daculawea...outh_master.php It's all just falling apart as it gets closer to me http://www.daculawea...rgia_master.php Down to 32.5 and falling 1.2 deg/hr now. Wet bulb is 28 even. Whatever falls is going to stick or evaporate.

Clouds @ 3000 ft, 16 degrees

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31/18 here. It appears that once again lack of precip will prevent us from having a significant event...there is a dusting of sleet visible on the deck and the driveway is decidedly crunchy.

Any ice on the road in the Alpharetta area? Had some light snow earlier in Dunwoody and I will be driving that way in an hour.

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