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December 16th event

RaleighWx

By RaleighWx,
in Southeastern States

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

That is correct :)

Post me up a link ...

FQD is about 10 miles (Crow Fly) to my wnw

Definitely snowing at FQD...is FQD representative of where you are?

Date: 12 hour  valid 6Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: KFQD
Latitude:   35.43
Longitude: -81.94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   142                                                             	
SFC  975   344  -2.6  -4.3  88  1.7  -3.2 191   4 272.5 273.0 271.4 280.3  2.86
 2  950   551  -2.2  -3.9  88  1.7  -2.8 210   8 275.0 275.5 273.1 283.3  3.01
 3  900   981  -1.5  -1.8  98  0.3  -1.6 241  18 280.0 280.6 276.8 290.3  3.71
 4  850  1437  -0.6  -0.7 100  0.1  -0.6 254  29 285.5 286.3 280.3 297.7  4.29
 5  800  1922  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9 264  32 290.2 291.0 282.7 303.1  4.48
 6  750  2437  -2.2  -2.3 100  0.0  -2.3 270  39 294.2 294.9 284.1 306.9  4.32
 7  700  2984  -4.2  -4.2 100  0.0  -4.2 272  48 297.9 298.6 285.2 309.9  4.01
 8  650  3566  -6.5  -6.7  99  0.2  -6.6 273  52 301.6 302.2 286.2 312.4  3.55
 9  600  4186 -11.3 -12.4  92  1.1 -11.7 276  51 303.0 303.5 285.5 310.7  2.46
10  550  4847 -15.2 -18.2  78  3.0 -16.0 279  51 306.1 306.4 285.8 311.4  1.66
11  500  5563 -18.6 -22.6  71  4.0 -19.6 282  68 310.4 310.6 286.9 314.5  1.25
12  450  6344 -21.2 -24.3  76  3.1 -21.9 285  84 316.6 316.8 288.9 320.7  1.19
13  400  7205 -26.7 -29.8  75  3.1 -27.2 288  85 320.3 320.5 289.7 323.2  0.81
14  350  8156 -34.3 -38.7  64  4.5 -34.7 289  87 322.5 322.6 289.9 323.9  0.38
15  300  9213 -43.8 -50.6  46  6.9 -44.1 291  94 323.7 323.7 290.0 324.2  0.12
16  250 10407 -54.6 -64.8  27 10.2 -54.8 293 103 324.9 324.9 290.3 325.0  0.03
17  200 11809 -59.6 -72.8  16 13.2 -59.7 295  94 338.3 338.3 293.9 338.4  0.01
18  150 13604 -60.7 -71.8  22 11.1 -60.9 285  70 365.4 365.4 299.8 365.5  0.02
19  100 16099 -63.2 -84.2   4 21.0 -63.4 288  47 405.7 405.7 306.0 405.7  0.00
TRP                                         	0                              
WND                                         	0

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wake4est

wake4est

Posted
Posted

Seriously, if you live in the Triangle of NC, remember 1/19/05. Less than half an inch of snow left some people in cars for hours.

Yeah, but that's just because the snow was quick and a surprise. Everyone freaked out, all the schools closed at once, everyone left work early all at the same time. With everyone on the roads plus the fear of icy conditions it lead to a mess when traffic packed down the snow and plows couldn't get to the roads due to the traffic.

Super freaky event that will never happen again.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

AFD KGSP

Both systems are talked about

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

238 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW

WHILE A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE CAROLINAS ON

THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP TO OUR

SOUTH AND MOVE UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH

PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

PRECIPITATION ON KFFC RADAR HAS REACHED ATLANTA IN THE WARM

ADVECTION FLOW OVER THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THIS AREA OF

ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL RIDE NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA

TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT PRECIPITATION LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA

AND INCREASING TOWARD DAYBREAK AS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE IMPROVES.

PROFILES ARE VERY DRY ACROSS THE REGION...AND WET BULBS SUGGEST THAT

LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET MAY BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROLONGED EARLY IN THE

EVENT THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STILL...A STRONG WARM NOSE SHOULD

RIDE INTO THE AREA ON STOUT 850 MB FLOW TO ALLOW A GRADUAL

TRANSITION OVER TO FREEZING RAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE

EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.

QPF STILL APPEARS A BIT LIMITED...BUT IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE

LATEST GFS/SREF. WILL POST A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN

NC MOUNTAINS FOR IMPACT WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERNIGHT COULD

BE TOPPED WITH A LAYER OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY MORNING

DURING PEAK COMMUTE TIME. AREAS FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WILL

SEE A FASTER TRANSITION...AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE

MAINLY DUE TO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ON TOP OF VERY LIGHT

SLEET/SNOW ACCUMS. WILL LEAVE THE SRN PIEDMONT OUT FOR NOW...BUT

THIS COULD NEED TO BE ADDED LATER DEPENDING ON HOW THE RADAR ECHOES

EVOLVE.

850 MB TEMPS SHOULD WARM RAPIDLY TO BETWEEN 4 AND 6 DEG C DURING THE

DAY ON THU...ALLOWING A COMPLETE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. THE SW TIER OF

WINTER HAZARDS WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM...WITH THE NRN TIER EXPIRING AT

NOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SFC WET BULB ZERO VALUES TO REMAIN

NEAR FREEZING UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT...BUT

THE ADVISORY CAN BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IF NEEDED THERE EARLY THU. THE

WINTER PRODUCTS WILL PLAY UP MAINLY TREACHEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS

THROUGHOUT DURING THE THU MORNING DRIVE TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THE GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE

PAST FEW RUNS OF A PROGRESSIVE SURFACE CYCLONE/STRONGER HIGH

PRESSURE RESULTING IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY TO THE

COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY. THE NAM IS FINALLY CATCHING ON TO THIS

TREND...SO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER

WITH LESS CLOUD COVER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.

WE WILL HOLD INTO SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND

ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS (FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRONG WESTERLY FLOW)

THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRI MORNING THROUGH SAT

MORNING SHOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE THE NAM AND

THE GFS HAVE THE SAME IDEA OF INITIATING AN EASTERN GULF COAST

SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BY EARLY SATURDAY...THE MORE

AMPLIFIED NAM RESULTS IN A MUCH SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE

WESTERN CAROLINAS. EXAMINATION OF NON-OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGESTS

THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER. IF ANYTHING...THE CANADIAN GEM AND

ECMWF SUGGEST EVEN THE GFS IS NOT PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH. FRANKLY...THE

NAM HAS UNDERPERFORMED ALL SEASON WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE SYSTEMS IN THE

48-84 HOUR TIME FRAME...SO WE WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE GFS FOR THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST.

EXAMINATION OF PARTIAL THICKNESSES/FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS

SUGGEST PROFILES WILL BE A BIT TOO WARM TO SUPPORT WINTRY PRECIP

SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR ONCE THE EVENT BEGINS SATURDAY MORNING

(ALTHOUGH THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN INITIAL MIX OF RAIN/SLEET.)

ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE

NORTHWEST PIEDMONT/NRN FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS...IT

APPEARS THAT QPF WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE

THAN LIGHT ACCUMS OF SLEET/SNOW...AS THE HIGHER QPF SHOULD EXIST

CLOSER TO THE I-85 CORRIDOR. OF COURSE...THIS IS ALL SUBJECT TO

DRASTIC CHANGE WITH EVEN MODEST DEVIATIONS OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK.

AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES IN RAPIDLY BEHIND THE RETREATING SURFACE

LOW SATURDAY EVENING...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WILL

BE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BEFORE PRECIP COMES TO AN

END.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Yeah, but that's just because the snow was quick and a surprise. Everyone freaked out, all the schools closed at once, everyone left work early all at the same time. With everyone on the roads plus the fear of icy conditions it lead to a mess when traffic packed down the snow and plows couldn't get to the roads due to the traffic.

Super freaky event that will never happen again.

I bet the schools will probably already close, but it could still be a mess tomorrow if people are trying to get to work, or they are at work and then leave. The scenario with this system sounds the same as it did with that system with a little snow and then ice on top of it. That doesn't take much to make the roads an ice rink with how cold it has been here for a while.

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted

I bet the schools will probably already close, but it could still be a mess tomorrow if people are trying to get to work, or they are at work and then leave. The scenario with this system sounds the same as it did with that system with a little snow and then ice on top of it. That doesn't take much to make the roads an ice rink with how cold it has been here for a while.

Brick go get drunk tonight, you won't have to work tomorrow.

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chapelhillwx

chapelhillwx

Posted
Posted

Weird.... the NWS in Blacksburg seems very bullish on this event for the areas immediately bordering NC, probably 40 or 45 minutes north of me:

Snow and sleet, becoming all sleet after noon. High near 34. South wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Very odd.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

I bet the schools will probably already close, but it could still be a mess tomorrow if people are trying to get to work, or they are at work and then leave. The scenario with this system sounds the same as it did with that system with a little snow and then ice on top of it. That doesn't take much to make the roads an ice rink with how cold it has been here for a while.

No this system has NO comparison to the one in 2005. That was a cold clipper with temperatures in the teens at the onset. With the mass panic drivers melted and compacted the snow and it quickly refroze since it was 15 or more below freezing. This system will be treacherous during the morning commute but should improve as the morning wears on and temps warm to near freezing.

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