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December 16th event

RaleighWx

By RaleighWx,
in Southeastern States

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

2 wintry events in 3 days and it's not even Winter yet !! I was really bummed out about our chances for wintry precip this winter due to La Nina, so i'm impressed we're seeing so much fun before Winter even officially begins.

Meteorological winter started December 1st.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Radar looks really un-impressive right now.. Do any of you think it will start to blossom as the moisture heads east towards the Carolinas tonight? Thanks for any input!

That will all change later tonight. Precip will expand in TN overnight and spread north and east into NC towards morning.

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georgiawx11

georgiawx11

Posted
Posted

Meteorological winter started December 1st.

Yeah, but wintry events before December 21st are pretty rare in the Atlanta area. The majority of our wintry weather is in Jan, Feb, and even March. I know there was an icestorm in Northeast Georgia around Dec 15, 2005 and also some snow in Mid Dec 2000, but other than that I can't think of any snow or icestorms before Dec 21 in the last 15 years.

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Batman

Batman

Posted
Posted

I was out in Peachtree City about an hour ago ( around 1pm). Started getting some light sleet with a few flakes of snow. Back in Tyrone now with nothing falling. Air is really dry. dewpoint is about 5. You can see the precip. on radar disappear as it gets into Georgia. Hopefully, the band heading toward the state line will hold together for us GA. folks. Alabama is experiencing some real problems today. Several roads in the Birmingham area have been closed due to icing conditions and accidents. You can look at www.alabamawx.com for details of the ice in Alabama.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

Yeah, but wintry events before December 21st are pretty rare in the Atlanta area. The majority of our wintry weather is in Jan, Feb, and even March. I know there was an icestorm in Northeast Georgia around Dec 15, 2005 and also some snow in Mid Dec 2000, but other than that I can't think of any snow or icestorms before Dec 21 in the last 15 years.

I was just responding to your statement that winter has not began yet but according to all Meteorogists winter began December 1st. Plus winter temperature records are measured from December 1st thru February.

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SBUWX23

SBUWX23

Posted
Posted

RUC brings snow into the foothills by 1AM. The JMA/EURO are all quite a bit further south with the surface low. They actually track close to 50-60 miles further south. That would bring the swath of snow from southern VA into NC.

I think everyone is paying to close attention to the QPF fields in the models. The overall synoptics support a track similar to the Euro/UKmet in my opinion regardless of what the QPF shows.

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

RUC brings snow into the foothills by 1AM. The JMA/EURO are all quite a bit further south with the surface low. They actually track close to 50-60 miles further south. That would bring the swath of snow from southern VA into NC.

Most likely snowing here by 6z:

Date: 12 hour  valid 6Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   147                                                                 
SFC  990   226  -1.9  -5.5  76  3.6  -3.1 191   4 272.0 272.4 270.5 279.0  2.55
 2  950   556  -2.3  -9.5  57  7.3  -4.6 214  12 274.9 275.2 271.3 280.3  1.95
 3  900   985  -2.4  -4.9  83  2.5  -3.3 242  17 279.0 279.5 275.2 287.3  2.94
 4  850  1440  -1.5  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6 259  25 284.6 285.3 279.4 295.7  3.93
 5  800  1923  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.7 272  29 289.5 290.2 282.0 301.6  4.20
 6  750  2437  -3.0  -3.1  99  0.2  -3.0 276  37 293.3 294.1 283.5 305.2  4.05
 7  700  2982  -4.7  -4.7 100  0.0  -4.7 275  47 297.3 297.9 284.8 308.7  3.84
 8  650  3563  -6.9  -7.0 100  0.1  -7.0 276  56 301.1 301.8 285.9 311.7  3.48
 9  600  4183 -11.2 -11.6  97  0.4 -11.3 278  56 303.2 303.7 285.8 311.4  2.62
10  550  4845 -15.4 -17.1  87  1.7 -15.9 283  55 305.8 306.1 285.9 311.6  1.82
11  500  5559 -19.2 -22.0  78  2.8 -19.8 286  69 309.6 309.9 286.7 314.0  1.31
12  450  6338 -22.4 -24.9  80  2.5 -22.9 287  80 315.1 315.3 288.4 318.9  1.13
13  400  7195 -27.2 -29.9  78  2.7 -27.7 286  88 319.6 319.7 289.5 322.4  0.80
14  350  8146 -34.3 -38.1  68  3.8 -34.7 288  91 322.4 322.5 289.9 323.9  0.41
15  300  9203 -43.8 -49.3  54  5.5 -44.1 293  98 323.6 323.6 290.0 324.1  0.14
16  250 10396 -54.7 -62.3  39  7.6 -54.9 296 105 324.7 324.7 290.2 324.9  0.04
17  200 11800 -57.8 -71.8  15 14.0 -58.0 293  93 341.2 341.2 294.6 341.3  0.01
18  150 13601 -61.2 -71.2  26 10.0 -61.3 285  74 364.6 364.6 299.6 364.7  0.02
19  100 16093 -62.9 -84.0   4 21.1 -63.0 285  48 406.3 406.3 306.0 406.3  0.00
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

RAH is getting ready to issue a Winter Weather advisory from about SOP line north as stated in their latest AFD.

post-382-0-19802000-1292440914.png

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

218 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTRY MIXTURE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY

MORNING AND AFTERNOON...

.A STORM SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL COLLIDE WITH COLD AIR

IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF

SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

NCZ023>028-040>043-075>077-160415-

/O.NEW.KRAH.WW.Y.0013.101216T0900Z-101216T2100Z/

ALAMANCE-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-

JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHAPEL HILL...DURHAM...

LOUISBURG...NASHVILLE...ROCKY MOUNT...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...

SMITHFIELD...WILSON...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON

218 PM EST WED DEC 15 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST

THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST

THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED: MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PIEDMONT AND

COASTAL PLAIN WILL EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN

THURSDAY MORNING.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES: PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A PERIOD OF SNOW

AROUND DAYBREAK CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN LATER IN THE MORNING.

* ACCUMULATION: A DUSTING OF SNOW...LESS THAN ONE INCH...IS

EXPECTED ALONG WITH A THIN GLAZE OF FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING: SNOW WILL BEGIN AROUND 7 AM THURSDAY...AND WILL CHANGE

OVER TO FREEZING RAIN BY MID MORNING. FREEZING RAIN IS THEN

EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN AFTER 1 PM.

* IMPACTS: DUE TO COLD GROUND TEMPERATURES...SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE

QUICKLY ON MANY SURFACES INCLUDING SOME ROADS THURSDAY MORNING.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL ACCUMULATE ON ELEVATED SURFACES.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE WILL BE LIGHT...THE

TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION COMBINED WITH COLD MORNING

TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAKE FOR A PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS DRIVING

CONDITIONS FROM AROUND DAYBREAK THURSDAY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

* TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 20S AROUND DAYBREAK

WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON.

OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND FREEZING WHICH

COULD RESULT IN SOME REFREEZING OF WET ROAD SURFACES BY FRIDAY

MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR

FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR

SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE

DRIVING.

&&

PLEASE REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL

WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING 1-877-633-6772.

Schools will be closed because of this advisory :thumbsup:

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I think everyone is paying to close attention to the QPF fields in the models. The overall synoptics support a track similar to the Euro/UKmet in my opinion regardless of what the QPF shows.

This is a very good point. It looks like the low should be south... and so should the precip shield.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Should be....

Most likely snowing here by 6z:

Date: 12 hour  valid 6Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: 35.31,-81.23
Latitude:   35.31
Longitude: -81.23
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
	mb 	m 	C 	C    %   C 	C  deg knt   K 	K 	K 	K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   147                                                             	
SFC  990   226  -1.9  -5.5  76  3.6  -3.1 191   4 272.0 272.4 270.5 279.0  2.55
 2  950   556  -2.3  -9.5  57  7.3  -4.6 214  12 274.9 275.2 271.3 280.3  1.95
 3  900   985  -2.4  -4.9  83  2.5  -3.3 242  17 279.0 279.5 275.2 287.3  2.94
 4  850  1440  -1.5  -1.8  97  0.4  -1.6 259  25 284.6 285.3 279.4 295.7  3.93
 5  800  1923  -1.6  -1.8  99  0.2  -1.7 272  29 289.5 290.2 282.0 301.6  4.20
 6  750  2437  -3.0  -3.1  99  0.2  -3.0 276  37 293.3 294.1 283.5 305.2  4.05
 7  700  2982  -4.7  -4.7 100  0.0  -4.7 275  47 297.3 297.9 284.8 308.7  3.84
 8  650  3563  -6.9  -7.0 100  0.1  -7.0 276  56 301.1 301.8 285.9 311.7  3.48
 9  600  4183 -11.2 -11.6  97  0.4 -11.3 278  56 303.2 303.7 285.8 311.4  2.62
10  550  4845 -15.4 -17.1  87  1.7 -15.9 283  55 305.8 306.1 285.9 311.6  1.82
11  500  5559 -19.2 -22.0  78  2.8 -19.8 286  69 309.6 309.9 286.7 314.0  1.31
12  450  6338 -22.4 -24.9  80  2.5 -22.9 287  80 315.1 315.3 288.4 318.9  1.13
13  400  7195 -27.2 -29.9  78  2.7 -27.7 286  88 319.6 319.7 289.5 322.4  0.80
14  350  8146 -34.3 -38.1  68  3.8 -34.7 288  91 322.4 322.5 289.9 323.9  0.41
15  300  9203 -43.8 -49.3  54  5.5 -44.1 293  98 323.6 323.6 290.0 324.1  0.14
16  250 10396 -54.7 -62.3  39  7.6 -54.9 296 105 324.7 324.7 290.2 324.9  0.04
17  200 11800 -57.8 -71.8  15 14.0 -58.0 293  93 341.2 341.2 294.6 341.3  0.01
18  150 13601 -61.2 -71.2  26 10.0 -61.3 285  74 364.6 364.6 299.6 364.7  0.02
19  100 16093 -62.9 -84.0   4 21.1 -63.0 285  48 406.3 406.3 306.0 406.3  0.00
TRP                                         	0                              
WND                                         	0

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

So, right now RAH is only calling for an inch at most and a glazing of ice over that for the Triangle tomorrow. However, it will be doing it during the morning rush hour and lasting half of the work day at least. I don't think I have to remind everyone living in the Triangle what less than an inch of snow can do here to driving conditions. Remember Jan 19, 2005?

http://raleighskyline.com/content/2006/11/21/the-half-inch-of-snow-that-paralyzed-raleigh/

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BullCityWx

BullCityWx

Posted
Posted

Should be....

Definitely snowing at FQD...is FQD representative of where you are?

Date: 12 hour  valid 6Z THU 16 DEC 10
Station: KFQD
Latitude:   35.43
Longitude: -81.94
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
    mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 0 1000   142                                                                 
SFC  975   344  -2.6  -4.3  88  1.7  -3.2 191   4 272.5 273.0 271.4 280.3  2.86
 2  950   551  -2.2  -3.9  88  1.7  -2.8 210   8 275.0 275.5 273.1 283.3  3.01
 3  900   981  -1.5  -1.8  98  0.3  -1.6 241  18 280.0 280.6 276.8 290.3  3.71
 4  850  1437  -0.6  -0.7 100  0.1  -0.6 254  29 285.5 286.3 280.3 297.7  4.29
 5  800  1922  -0.9  -0.9 100  0.0  -0.9 264  32 290.2 291.0 282.7 303.1  4.48
 6  750  2437  -2.2  -2.3 100  0.0  -2.3 270  39 294.2 294.9 284.1 306.9  4.32
 7  700  2984  -4.2  -4.2 100  0.0  -4.2 272  48 297.9 298.6 285.2 309.9  4.01
 8  650  3566  -6.5  -6.7  99  0.2  -6.6 273  52 301.6 302.2 286.2 312.4  3.55
 9  600  4186 -11.3 -12.4  92  1.1 -11.7 276  51 303.0 303.5 285.5 310.7  2.46
10  550  4847 -15.2 -18.2  78  3.0 -16.0 279  51 306.1 306.4 285.8 311.4  1.66
11  500  5563 -18.6 -22.6  71  4.0 -19.6 282  68 310.4 310.6 286.9 314.5  1.25
12  450  6344 -21.2 -24.3  76  3.1 -21.9 285  84 316.6 316.8 288.9 320.7  1.19
13  400  7205 -26.7 -29.8  75  3.1 -27.2 288  85 320.3 320.5 289.7 323.2  0.81
14  350  8156 -34.3 -38.7  64  4.5 -34.7 289  87 322.5 322.6 289.9 323.9  0.38
15  300  9213 -43.8 -50.6  46  6.9 -44.1 291  94 323.7 323.7 290.0 324.2  0.12
16  250 10407 -54.6 -64.8  27 10.2 -54.8 293 103 324.9 324.9 290.3 325.0  0.03
17  200 11809 -59.6 -72.8  16 13.2 -59.7 295  94 338.3 338.3 293.9 338.4  0.01
18  150 13604 -60.7 -71.8  22 11.1 -60.9 285  70 365.4 365.4 299.8 365.5  0.02
19  100 16099 -63.2 -84.2   4 21.0 -63.4 288  47 405.7 405.7 306.0 405.7  0.00
TRP                                             0                              
WND                                             0

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