December 16th event

[Brick Tamland]

WRAL called for a Trace - 2". I think that's a pretty good call. That means we could get a trace w/ a max of 2". You just can't look at the 2" and forget about the trace part.

BTW, nice writeup Allan!

Yeah, I guess they have to be as broad as possible. You never really know about winter weather here until it actually starts happening.

[superjames1992]

Blacksburg has put out Winter Storm Watches for the counties immediately north of GSO and north and west of INT. We'll see if RAH issues something here.

[DaculaWeather]

New AFD from FFC

UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LIGHT WINTERY MIX OF SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN OVER AL MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AT

THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND

INCREASED POPS OVER WEST GA TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE MORNING

AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO REINFORCE THE

WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT. WAITING ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO

UPGRADE TO WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTH GA COUNTIES

OR NOT. DUE TO SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS A LOT

OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVAPORATING. HOWEVER...

THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH THE PRECIPITATION REACHING

THE GROUND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR BY SUNSET. NO OTHER CHANGES

NEEDED ELSEWHERE.

[snowdevil]

light sleet with snowflakes here right north of Lagrange ga in west central ga.

[WeatherNC]

12z RGEM valid 10am and noon tomorrow, transition north of 40 looks to occur around 3pm, with areas along the NC VA boarder seeing the best hit. Precip is exiting the coastal plain around 5pm. Big problems in and around the triangle in terms of commute it this were to verify.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Brick Tamland]

12z RGEM valid 10am tomorrow, transition north of 40 looks to occur around 3pm, with areas along the NC VA boarder seeing the best hit. Precip is exiting the coastal plain around 5pm. Big problems in and around the triangle in terms of commute it this were to verify.

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

That's all I am asking for out of this, just enough to get a day off work. Looks like it lasts pretty much the whole work day if that verified. The big problem is it is spposed to start during the morning rush hour, so it's going to be tough for schools and work to make a call to close or not.

[HWY316wx]

New AFD from FFC

UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LIGHT WINTERY MIX OF SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN OVER AL MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AT

THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND

INCREASED POPS OVER WEST GA TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE MORNING

AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO REINFORCE THE

WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT. WAITING ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO

UPGRADE TO WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTH GA COUNTIES

OR NOT. DUE TO SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS A LOT

OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVAPORATING. HOWEVER...

THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH THE PRECIPITATION REACHING

THE GROUND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR BY SUNSET. NO OTHER CHANGES

NEEDED ELSEWHERE.

Atleast they did not call for thunder.

Glad to see they are warming up to the idea. No pun intended.

[ams30721us]

Atleast they did not call for thunder.

Glad to see they are warming up to the idea. No pun intended.

[MillzPirate]

a little off topic, but anyone know what kind of rate were on for this to make coldest December ever?

[NEGa]

well i am not that excited. echos are overhead but the sun is out. temp is 30 dewpoint 5 so i am not looking for a nice surprise like alabama got

[georgiawx11]

a little off topic, but anyone know what kind of rate were on for this to make coldest December ever?

I'm not sure, but I bet this is one of the coldest La Nina December's that we've ever seen.

[MillzPirate]

nice to see it snowing in Eastern NC on Christmas Day per 12z GFS

[ams30721us]

well i am not that excited. echos are overhead but the sun is out. temp is 30 dewpoint 5 so i am not looking for a nice surprise like alabama got

???

[georgiawx11]

I wonder why there is only a 30-40% chance of precip for most of Metro Atlanta today and tomorrow. That means there's a 60-70% chance we won't get precip right ?

[Cold Rain]

12z RGEM valid 10am and noon tomorrow, transition north of 40 looks to occur around 3pm, with areas along the NC VA boarder seeing the best hit. Precip is exiting the coastal plain around 5pm. Big problems in and around the triangle in terms of commute it this were to verify.

Question is, now do we trust the RGEM? Haha! Thanks for your thoughts on the NAM, by the way. Hopefully, we can get the precip in here a little sooner and stronger than the models are showing.

When is it time to start looking at the SREF??

[NEGa]

???

lol ?? sorry if that didnt make sense...i am busy this morning and trying to follow the weather at the same time. it seemed like the frz rain was expanding in alabama and they were extended the advisories, but the precip is hitting a wall in ga. gsp radar showed a few echos over head but the sun is out with high clouds. so i was thinking most of the stuff here will be virga, until the temp hits 32.1 LOL

so i was thinking alabama got a little surprise with all that, but that it wouldnt here (even though i was secretly hoping so, of course)

[weatherheels]

Blacksburg has put out Winter Storm Watches for the counties immediately north of GSO and north and west of INT. We'll see if RAH issues something here.

RAH is more than likely going to put out WWA for the area. Seems like from what Blacksburg is predicting for Stokes county they should do advisories as well because 1-3 inches of snow and 1/10 ice isn't warning criteria, is it?

[DaculaWeather]

lol ?? sorry if that didnt make sense...i am busy this morning and trying to follow the weather at the same time. it seemed like the frz rain was expanding in alabama and they were extended the advisories, but the precip is hitting a wall in ga. gsp radar showed a few echos over head but the sun is out with high clouds. so i was thinking most of the stuff here will be virga, until the temp hits 32.1 LOL

so i was thinking alabama got a little surprise with all that, but that it wouldnt here (even though i was secretly hoping so, of course)

My DP is still dropping???? I'm getting dryer, not more moist. My wet bulb is still 25 degrees. I think it will be another 4 hours before we see anything at the rate it's currently moving.

[georgiawx11]

My DP is still dropping???? I'm getting dryer, not more moist. My wet bulb is still 25 degrees. I think it will be another 4 hours before we see anything at the rate it's currently moving.

My dp is dropping too.

[DaculaWeather]

The leading edge is approaching Peachtree City, we'll see if when they start getting some precip if they change any of the forecast.

http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_georgia_master.php

[RaleighWx]

This is the coldest start (First 14 days) to December for KRDU on record.

[NCSNOW]

I'm not sure, but I bet this is one of the coldest La Nina December's that we've ever seen.

Check the other thread. I did some research on this and as of 12/13, everyone on this board is running -9 to -11 so far this month against the means. Will be record Cold and on pace to set it.

[superjames1992]

RAH is more than likely going to put out WWA for the area. Seems like from what Blacksburg is predicting for Stokes county they should do advisories as well because 1-3 inches of snow and 1/10 ice isn't warning criteria, is it?

No, I think that's WWA criteria. I expect RAH to go with a WWA, as well.

Hopefully they issue it before the storm unlike a couple weeks ago when they issued it during the storm.

[DaculaWeather]

Ok, you guys just west of Atlanta, keep us updated, it's just now starting to come into your area

http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_georgia_master.php

[eyewall]

I am working on building a site for the Sandhills region but I already posted a forecast there along with a call map.

Go to http://www.sandhillswx.com

The forecast and discussion pages are up and running. I am still working on the rest

In short here is the NC Call:

[jrips27]

Thanks. I'm eating a biscuit from Martin's right now actually.

Oh my gosh that place is AMAZING! Welcome to the board! I live SW of Kennesaw so I'm right up the road. Glad to have another person to give obs from our area

[strongwxnc]

Good work Jeremy!

Need to put that link in your sig.

I am working on building a site for the Sandhills region but I already posted a forecast there along with a call map.

Go to http://www.sandhillswx.com

The forecast and discussion pages are up and running. I am still working on the rest

In short here is the NC Call:

[Local Yokel Wx]

I wonder why there is only a 30-40% chance of precip for most of Metro Atlanta today and tomorrow. That means there's a 60-70% chance we won't get precip right ?

its not a chance but coverage precentage. Meaning 30 - 40% of the coverage area will see precip.

[NCSnowstorm]

Looks good!

I am working on building a site for the Sandhills region but I already posted a forecast there along with a call map.

Go to http://www.sandhillswx.com

The forecast and discussion pages are up and running. I am still working on the rest

In short here is the NC Call:

[superjames1992]

Right on the border between 1" and 1-3", Eyewall. I'll take it!