Brian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Cool. I lived in Paulding for a while and we still have friends in that area. welcome again! Your avatar is hilarious.................:thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 This system reminds of one that hit when I was in 9th grade. They called for little to no accumulation. That morning when I got on the bus there was a mist in the air, but I knew something was up when I slid on the road getting on the bus. 30 minutes later our bus was stuck on the road because it couldn't get up a icy hill. Cars were wrecking all over the place because of a light glace of ice on the road. The police had to come and take everyone on the bus home. So, even if it isn't much, a little snow and ice can cause big problems on the road around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I agree. I mean if it happened once in a while it would actually make sense but what would be a reason not to issue a Frz. rain adv for atleast NW GA for AT BEST a few hrs of frz rain this afternoon. I mean you have all kinds of reports coming in just to the west and guess what they were warmer overnight and the past few days so use common sense. I am just baffled by how they can miss everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It looks like the precip field is actually moving ESE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 The new NAM is a nice hit for VA. Has been that way for several runs, taking the heaviest axis through south and central VA, compared to the GFS which has it along the NC VA boarder... I am interested in seeing the other 12z regional models, namely the WRF's, as the 0z runs (including the RGEM) were more inline with the global and not nearly as far north as the NAM with the QPF. 0z WRF-ARW 12z NAM 6z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thanks. I'm in Dallas, GA. Welcome to the board. I lived in Hiram for around 5 years. That was back before hwy 278 blew up. There was nothing there then. Me and my now wife used to get up on Saturday mornings and drive to Dallas to get biscuits from Martins. Anyway welcome! Not expecting much w/ this Thurday system for my area. The heaviest precip has shifted north over the past 2 days or so. It will be nice to see some possible flurries in the air before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
georgiawx11 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Welcome to the board. I lived in Hiram for around 5 years. That was back before hwy 278 blew up. There was nothing there then. Me and my now wife used to get up on Saturday mornings and drive to Dallas to get biscuits from Martins. Anyway welcome! Not expecting much w/ this Thurday system for my area. The heaviest precip has shifted north over the past 2 days or so. It will be nice to see some possible flurries in the air before the change over. Thanks. I'm eating a biscuit from Martin's right now actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sorry for the weenie post...but does anyone expect travel issues for metro Atlanta this afternoon? I'm on the phone and from what I've seen it looks like NW Georgia will have more problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT call found in the MA thread. Good luck N- NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT call found in the MA thread. Good luck N- NC.. That would be a huge fail for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Has been that way for several runs, taking the heaviest axis through south and central VA, compared to the GFS which has it along the NC VA boarder... I am interested in seeing the other 12z regional models, namely the WRF's, as the 0z runs (including the RGEM) were more inline with the global and not nearly as far north as the NAM with the QPF. 0z WRF-ARW 12z NAM 6z GFS So close we can taste it...... i guess its not too much to ask to get a jog 50 miles south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I am wondering at just how the PV will play into this and I think the NAM may be just a touch too far north as a result of it. I could be wrong but I think it may be dislodging a bit too quickly. I still think this is primarily a fail for my area and best north of 40 toward VA but I wouldn't be surprised to see some measurable in the triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Was really never thought to be a big deal. Maybe at first but that was short lived.. That would be a huge fail for NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Has been that way for several runs, taking the heaviest axis through south and central VA, compared to the GFS which has it along the NC VA boarder... I am interested in seeing the other 12z regional models, namely the WRF's, as the 0z runs (including the RGEM) were more inline with the global and not nearly as far north as the NAM with the QPF. What do you attribute the NAM's northern stubborness to? It certainly continues to be farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That would be a huge fail for NC. The models have shown this "Fail" for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT call found in the MA thread. Good luck N- NC.. That's a smart map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 DT call found in the MA thread. Good luck N- NC.. Is that a coffee stain around Onslow Bay, or just the paint left over from him throwing it? As is par for the MA, snow chances don't really exist south of VA, and this map illustrates it. If the NAM has a handle on QPF amounts and location, he will likely fair very well on this call. Like some of the other well known mets (i.e. JB), Dave has an audience, and sometimes you see products catered to such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 That would be a huge fail for NC. Not really.... to be a huge fail we would have to have been expecting a decent hit. Since just about everyone in NC should only get a light even out of this I don't see why that would be a huge fail. Looks like a pretty good call to me as far as snow accums go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Even though it's 29.6 here the dewpoint is still 8 deg and trending down for now. Come on precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Evidently GSP about to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for I85 along and north corridor around Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I agree with this statement! Is that a coffee stain around Onslow Bay, or just the paint left over from him throwing it? As is par for the MA, snow chances don't really exist south of VA, and this map illustrates it. If the NAM has a handle on QPF amounts and location, he will likely fair very well on this call. Like some of the other well known mets (i.e. JB), Dave has an audience, and sometimes you see products catered to such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 To add to this post... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1002 AM EST WED DEC 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...AND MAINTAIN MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... -- Changed Discussion --CONCERN IS INCREASING REGARDING EXPECTED QPF ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL NAM IS STILL RATHER SPARSE EAST OF THE MTNS...HOWEVER...THE 09Z SREF MEAN QPF VALUES HAVE TRENDED QUITE A BIT WETTER. STILL PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON WINTER HAZARD ISSUANCE PENDING FULL REVIEW OF INCOMING 12Z MODEL DATA. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER JET AXIS MOVES INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW. THE 12Z NAM IS ACTUALLY DOING A DECENT JOB OF DEPICTING ISENTROPIC LIFT INDUCED PRECIP THIS MORNING ACROSS AL...AND THIS PRECIP SHOULD REACH THE SW PART OF THE CWFA FROM 00Z TO 03Z THIS EVENING BEFORE SPREADING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF EXPECTATION...PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE KEY. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY A LIGHT FROZEN MIX AT ONSET...TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING/FROZEN OVERNIGHT AND FINALLY ALL FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FOR SOME MTN LOCATIONS...THIS MIXED BAG MAY BE THE ONLY THING THAT KEEP ANY ACCUMS FROM REACHING WARNING CRITERIA IN SPOTS. EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE POSTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ONCE THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT.-- End Changed Discussion -- Evidently GSP about to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for I85 along and north corridor around Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z GFS looks slightly better for us with the initial precip but has it all as ZR...light but could create some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Will see what GFS says any minute but the rgem still look better for many of us in NC for a decent little event with its 12z update. Especially better than the Nam. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12z is keeping the sfc temps below freezing for all of NC up until around 15z. and still keeps most of NC freezing. Might be in for a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted December 15, 2010 Author Share Posted December 15, 2010 My morning call. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-raleigh/wintry-mix-for-north-carolina-tonight-tomorrow-more-snow-saturday-evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the local media talking about this storm on Monday was indeed the kiss of death. WRAL called for up to 2 inches of snow here just this morning, and now everyone is saying less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looks like the local media talking about this storm on Monday was indeed the kiss of death. WRAL called for up to 2 inches of snow here just this morning, and now everyone is saying less than an inch. WRAL called for a Trace - 2". I think that's a pretty good call. That means we could get a trace w/ a max of 2". You just can't look at the 2" and forget about the trace part. BTW, nice writeup Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Great read. Thanks!! My morning call. http://www.examiner....aturday-evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 What do you attribute the NAM's northern stubborness to? It certainly continues to be farther north. Don't exactly know, however, we are not talking a huge difference, but the implications for N NC could be sig, depending on what verifies. The NAM is stronger than the GFS with a H5 packet over MO and IL at 18hrs, compared to the GFS. Granted, some of this is due to the higher resolution, but the extent to which this feature impacts the QPF downstream looks like one reason. The PV is also stronger on the NAM, and displaced a little to the SE of the GFS position at 18hrs, which would argue the QPF should be a little south, as the NAM has slightly lower heights in the MA, but it is north on amounts compared to the global. Also look at the Data ingest for the 12z American models... SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 1508Z WED DEC 15 2010 12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME..ZERO MEXICAN RAOBS WERE AVAILABLE FOR 12Z NAM/GFS INGEST. 12Z GFS RAOB RECAP YAK/70361 - MISSED THE NAM...IN FOR THE GFS ASY/70414 - 10158 CAR/72712 - SHORT TO 824MB ANN/70398 - 10142 APG/74002 - PURGED ALL HGTS...BASELINE ERROR JAN/72235 - PURGED TEMPS/MOISTURE 712-597MB...WET BULB EFFECT DSD/78486 - PURGED WINDS 878MB-814MB APG is Aberdeen Proving Ground and JAN is Jackson MS Great write-up Allan! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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