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December 16th event

RaleighWx

By RaleighWx,
in Southeastern States

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NCBlizzard

NCBlizzard

Posted
Posted

We still have a problem with low level cold getting over the mountains I think, we usually do. The cold bends from the north, and around to the southwest, especiall at the 925 to 950 mb level. Its a little bit of downlsoping right over our area literally, but the 850 low track could offset that. However, theres no sign of 850 low when its near us on this run, unlike the other run, plus we'd want to see it formed much further to the southwest to get the benefit from it along the 74 corridor. For us, its still really a race of moisture against cold air. The Euro was colder, we'll see if it can squeeze it a bit colder before the bulk of the moisture gets in.

I really hope we luck out here and get a big one. Nice to have a professional opinion for our area. Thanks :snowman:

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
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I think everybody is in the game at this point. What we really need is for that piece of energy dropping down through the plains to be farther south and stronger. If we can get that to happen, the storm should crank up faster; pulling in more cold air, and throwing more moisture back this way.

you do not want that, trust me, even in Central SC, as it would be a warmer RN than currently progged... That would pull the storm more north, and likely closer to the coast, or even onshore in SC or NC. A stronger system would also pull in more warm air, and nose it pretty far inland with a track along the coast. Climatology says most SN-storms that impact NC, do not impact areas north of the Delmarva, and from my understanding, I would postulate that this is the case for SC too.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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This run gives a 2-6 inch hit from Frosty and all Triad over toward somewhere in the western Triangle. I have to wait on Allan map to download. This run is strung out more so. IMO it's sitting in the perfect spot and would be a whopper if everything fully phased . This would draw in more colder 850 on the North and western flank, which is where most of us sit this run. The OTS solution works to a degree by not throwing in warm wrap around off the Atlantic, but it doesn't have the sucking power to draw that 850 line down, like a fully phased storm would in this location. Perfect spot, just need to get a northern stream piece on energy to phase in and set a bomb off. Frosty you have better 850's from the get go, but less qpf this run. I have better qpf, but waste some waiting on my 850's to drop.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

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you do not want that, trust me, even in Central SC, as it would be a warmer RN than currently progged... That would pull the storm more north, and likely closer to the coast, or even onshore in SC or NC. A stronger system would also pull in more warm air, and nose it pretty far inland with a track along the coast. Climatology says most SN-storms that impact NC, do not impact areas north of the Delmarva, and from my understanding, I would postulate that this is the case for SC too.

You think you guys would get screwed with a phase around Jax/Sav? I guess if it went negative youd get throwback Warm air of the Atlantic. Where is the benchmark so to speak for Gville up to RWI on miller A tracks?

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

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Posted

This run gives a 2-6 inch hit from Frosty and all Triad over toward somewhere in the western Triangle. I have to wait on Allan map to download. This run is strung out more so. IMO it's sitting in the perfect spot and would be a whopper if everything fully phased . This would draw in more colder 850 on the North and western flank, which is where most of us sit this run. The OTS solution works to a degree by not throwing in warm wrap around off the Atlantic, but it doesn't have the sucking power to draw that 850 line down, like a fully phased storm would in this location. Perfect spot, just need to get a northern stream piece on energy to phase in and set a bomb off. Frosty you have better 850's from the get go, but less qpf this run. I have better qpf, but waste some waiting on my 850's to drop.

It will probably trend back west before saturday ? I rather have it east of me right now.

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FoothillsNC

FoothillsNC

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Posted

I really hope we luck out here and get a big one. Nice to have a professional opinion for our area. Thanks :snowman:

I'd love that too, just watching the snow fall is fascinating, and I'm not dead against this yet, but I just like to put out the negatives first, and see what can go wrong. Low level cold air is a problem for us when its cold air coming into the storm system, remember a couple or 3 January's ago it was snowing on all 4 sides of us , ATL GSP CLT and HKY and raining here. It wasn't a big deal, but it happened. It also happened last March storm, but that was more bad timing of arrival, and weak precip rates. We obviously can get cold enough during a storm like the previous March, but that was an ULL , so that was different as well. I've just seen so many southern systems when its a race against cold coming in time , versus speed of moisture, and the moisture almost always races out before our area can switch over, oddly enough though places due east of us can benefit like Fayetteville and the coast. Seen that several times. As you've seen moisture can rocket out of this county, LOL

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fyredog28

fyredog28

Posted
Posted

Hello All

I am brand new to this yet I enjoy the weather. The only downside is that the more I study into it the more confused I get. I guess I just want to know straight up what the storm Thursday is going to do and then the one this weekend. NWS-Raleigh says one thing, Accuweather says another and local news says something else.

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Pilotwx

Pilotwx

Posted
Posted

Just wait till the thursday system gets out of the way and I bet you will see a west trend start possibly as early as tomorrow evenings runs. Snowman.gif

Computer models are notorious to not digest all the info needed for the 2nd of two storms This happens a lot of times when you have storms so close to each other.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

Just wait till the thursday system gets out of the way and I bet you will see a west trend start possibly as early as tomorrow evenings runs. Snowman.gif

Computer models are notorious to not digest all the info needed for the 2nd of two storms This happens a lot of times when you have storms so close to each other.

You are rightpopcorn.gifbut I am just a landscaper that is known to drop a blade or two in the snow

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NCBlizzard

NCBlizzard

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Posted

I'd love that too, just watching the snow fall is fascinating, and I'm not dead against this yet, but I just like to put out the negatives first, and see what can go wrong. Low level cold air is a problem for us when its cold air coming into the storm system, remember a couple or 3 January's ago it was snowing on all 4 sides of us , ATL GSP CLT and HKY and raining here. It wasn't a big deal, but it happened. It also happened last March storm, but that was more bad timing of arrival, and weak precip rates. We obviously can get cold enough during a storm like the previous March, but that was an ULL , so that was different as well. I've just seen so many southern systems when its a race against cold coming in time , versus speed of moisture, and the moisture almost always races out before our area can switch over, oddly enough though places due east of us can benefit like Fayetteville and the coast. Seen that several times. As you've seen moisture can rocket out of this county, LOL

Yea I do remember. That ULL gave me 8" :snowman: it was pretty awesome. It does seem like this country gets shafted a lot maybe that just mean its our time!

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burrel2

burrel2

Posted
Posted

you do not want that, trust me, even in Central SC, as it would be a warmer RN than currently progged... That would pull the storm more north, and likely closer to the coast, or even onshore in SC or NC. A stronger system would also pull in more warm air, and nose it pretty far inland with a track along the coast. Climatology says most SN-storms that impact NC, do not impact areas north of the Delmarva, and from my understanding, I would postulate that this is the case for SC too.

I disagree. A flatter weaker solution isn't going to cut it here. It will be too warm. A stronger storm would make it colder, assuming you are on the northern side of the 850 low track. This would be possible(for me and you) if that energy diving in on the backside comes in farther south and stronger.

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Rankin5150

Rankin5150

Posted
Posted

We still have a problem with low level cold getting over the mountains I think, we usually do. The cold bends from the north, and around to the southwest, especiall at the 925 to 950 mb level. Its a little bit of downlsoping right over our area literally, but the 850 low track could offset that. However, theres no sign of 850 low when its near us on this run, unlike the other run, plus we'd want to see it formed much further to the southwest to get the benefit from it along the 74 corridor. For us, its still really a race of moisture against cold air. The Euro was colder, we'll see if it can squeeze it a bit colder before the bulk of the moisture gets in.

We still receive a few hours of snow or sleet to whiten things up. Correct? I guess a "little" is better than nothing in December, at least for our area(s). Thanks for the analysis Robert...

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

125px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png

O Canada!

Our home and native land!

True patriot love in all thy sons command.

With glowing hearts we see thee rise,

The True North strong and free!

From far and wide,

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

God keep our land glorious and free!

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

I like the way the Canadian's looking! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Is the RGEM very reliable in the short range?

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

125px-Flag_of_Canada.svg.png

O Canada!

Our home and native land!

True patriot love in all thy sons command.

With glowing hearts we see thee rise,

The True North strong and free!

From far and wide,

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

God keep our land glorious and free!

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

O Canada, we stand on guard for thee.

I like the way the Canadian's looking! thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Is the RGEM very reliable in the short range?

Within 48hrs it is comparable to the other regional models, including the NAM, from my understanding.

monthly_ts_rmse_GZ500_NA_24.png

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BIG FROSTY

BIG FROSTY

Posted
Posted

First one of the season :thumbsup:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY

MORNING...

.TODAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION

AROUND AN INCH. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND

VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.

.THURSDAY...FREEZING RAIN. SLEET AND SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN

RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF

1 TO 3 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR

100 PERCENT.

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