Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

December 16th event


RaleighWx

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not over until Sunday:)

yeah you can't rule it out until we know for sure the cold isn't going to make it, and so far we can't say that here. Still a long shot for me I think, but for you and Hickory and points near 40, I'd bet you have a decent chance, esp. if the 850 low forms and takes the right track.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm okay with the 00z NAM. At 84, the cold air is bleeding south and precip is breaking out over northern MS and sw TN. Precip is also on the increase over the gulf coast up through coastal SC. My hopes are that things are going to be just a bit slower which is good as it allows more cold air to build in and be involved with the system. Don't like not seeing slp, but its not such a big deal at this juncture.

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Little slower with weekend system coming together. Holds energy back longer and looks like if it went out another 12 hours we would see this kicker coming out of the panhandle from the northern stream attempt to set off cyclogenisis on/off gA coast. The surface reflection on the last 2 frames gives this indication. Doesnt really matter what this thing sells out past 48, you never know for sure what you got. This looks to strung out to me.

00znam500mbvort084.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sref does the same dry slot/hole if you will over foothills/ western piedmont. Can't figure this out other than the dry air/low dp's get trapped with hybird dam up against apps. Anyway Sref colder for NC on Thursday, thus giving off hour or 2 of snow at onset as well as little more generous with qpf, probbaly .15-.20.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sref does the same dry slot/hole if you will over foothills/ western piedmont. Can't figure this out other than the dry air/low dp's get trapped with hybird dam up against apps. Anyway Sref colder for NC on Thursday, thus giving off hour or 2 of snow at onset as well as little more generous with qpf, probbaly .15-.20.

Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains.

Def agree, all it takes is one good band to form that the models don't anticipate. We know there is cold around and some moisture around, just got to wait and see how much of each we can get. [fingers crossed]

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains.

I think it will cause a mess on the roads across the nw piedmont.........dp's in the lower 20's and lgt sn then ip then over to zr....all it takes is a little pcp with the ground temps so cold........it all way seems like you have the pcp or the cold........not both this far south......things may shift back south on tmro's 12z data

xwx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains.

Your right, never know how pendellum will swing. This is an appetizer that I'll be glad to take, but it's the weekend big synoptic event I want us all to reel in. Cards are on the table for that one, But getting phased storms to work out just right involves divine intervention. Thursday has 2 big hurdles to cross in our neck of the woods, 1) limited moisture and 2) No new surface cold air feed. Not good odds, but when are the odds ever weighted heavily in our favor. Usually we don't find out about good fortune until an event starts to unfold. Can't recall the last time 4-5 days out and the models didn't waffle and get you up v/s down every 6-12 hours. The last 24 hours are a prime example. I'm feeling upty up about the weekend right now, but I'm sure the GFS espeacilly will cause me to want to hit the panic button a time or 2 between now and this weekend.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think it will cause a mess on the roads across the nw piedmont.........dp's in the lower 20's and lgt sn then ip then over to zr....all it takes is a little pcp with the ground temps so cold........it all way seems like you have the pcp or the cold........not both this far south......things may shift back south on tmro's 12z data

xwx

factor in no sun angle and even though this is a daytime event, a slushy / slippery mess seems likely. I'd lay some $$ on a school snow day for the Piedmont counties right now. The brining might bail us out on primary roads though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your right, never know how pendellum will swing. This is an appetizer that I'll be glad to take, but it's the weekend big synoptic event I want us all to reel in. Cards are on the table for that one, But getting phased storms to work out just right involves divine intervention. Thursday has 2 big hurdles to cross in our neck of the woods, 1) limited moisture and 2) No new surface cold air feed. Not good odds, but when are the odds ever weighted heavily in our favor. Usually we don't find out about good fortune until an event starts to unfold. Can't recall the last time 4-5 days out and the models didn't waffle and get you up v/s down every 6-12 hours. The last 24 hours are a prime example. I'm feeling upty up about the weekend right now, but I'm sure the GFS espeacilly will cause me to want to hit the panic button a time or 2 between now and this weekend.

first one will pay for the fuel I need for the weekendthumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

factor in no sun angle and even though this is a daytime event, a slushy / slippery mess seems likely. I'd lay some $ on a school snow day for the Piedmont counties right now. The brining might bail us out on primary roads though.

One thing is for sure,waa pcp will over spread the region much quicker than the models p/u........

xwx

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...