burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BTW the latest run of the SREF mean has snow across most of NC including the CLT area then a move over to ZR then rain. It has freezing precip for 6 hrs. across much of the state. Of course it's very light qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not over until Sunday:) yeah you can't rule it out until we know for sure the cold isn't going to make it, and so far we can't say that here. Still a long shot for me I think, but for you and Hickory and points near 40, I'd bet you have a decent chance, esp. if the 850 low forms and takes the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Trying to figure out how to post Images ? Is it ok to post Images ? If not I want post anymore. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I'm okay with the 00z NAM. At 84, the cold air is bleeding south and precip is breaking out over northern MS and sw TN. Precip is also on the increase over the gulf coast up through coastal SC. My hopes are that things are going to be just a bit slower which is good as it allows more cold air to build in and be involved with the system. Don't like not seeing slp, but its not such a big deal at this juncture. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Little slower with weekend system coming together. Holds energy back longer and looks like if it went out another 12 hours we would see this kicker coming out of the panhandle from the northern stream attempt to set off cyclogenisis on/off gA coast. The surface reflection on the last 2 frames gives this indication. Doesnt really matter what this thing sells out past 48, you never know for sure what you got. This looks to strung out to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BTW the latest run of the SREF mean has snow across most of NC including the CLT area then a move over to ZR then rain. It has freezing precip for 6 hrs. across much of the state. Of course it's very light qpf. Thursday storm correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Thursday storm correct? Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I know it is the NAM @ 84 HR. However, I like the look of the energy for the second system slowing down and the cold air sagging in. I would not write off Sunday by any stretch. The GFS shall be interesting.... Sitting at 23deg now with a DP of 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Looking at 700 on the 0z nam, The RH is exploding over the southeast. I would assume that it is starting to phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I hear ya Ray ! Boy yall are funny. He won't have a problem getting the check this year. I will put snow at the front doors of the location I plow for him. We both will be smiling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Boy yall are funny. He won't have a problem getting the check this year. I will put snow at the front doors of the location I plow for him. We both will be smiling Maybe this weekend ? Baby it's cold outside 16.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 As long as we get enough frozen stuff to keep me home from work Thursday morning, I'll take it. And then look forward to something bigger this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the Sierra Nevadas in California are probably going to get up to 2 feet of snow this week, with excellent onshore flow and a powerful jet late week.. Its good to see that because California and the Southwest are in desperate need of water with a long term drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 BUFKIT for CLT http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/cobb_gfsm/gfs3_kclt.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sref does the same dry slot/hole if you will over foothills/ western piedmont. Can't figure this out other than the dry air/low dp's get trapped with hybird dam up against apps. Anyway Sref colder for NC on Thursday, thus giving off hour or 2 of snow at onset as well as little more generous with qpf, probbaly .15-.20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 12 degrees. Much colder tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM gives GSO about 1/2" of snow followed by a tenth of zr. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Sref does the same dry slot/hole if you will over foothills/ western piedmont. Can't figure this out other than the dry air/low dp's get trapped with hybird dam up against apps. Anyway Sref colder for NC on Thursday, thus giving off hour or 2 of snow at onset as well as little more generous with qpf, probbaly .15-.20. Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains. Def agree, all it takes is one good band to form that the models don't anticipate. We know there is cold around and some moisture around, just got to wait and see how much of each we can get. [fingers crossed] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains. I think it will cause a mess on the roads across the nw piedmont.........dp's in the lower 20's and lgt sn then ip then over to zr....all it takes is a little pcp with the ground temps so cold........it all way seems like you have the pcp or the cold........not both this far south......things may shift back south on tmro's 12z data xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 NAM gives GSO about 1/2" of snow followed by a tenth of zr. TW If I read it correct it gives me about .25 qpf all right at or below 32 degrees Now i'm not sure I looked at it right ? If you don't mind check it for me and see if i'm correct. TIA kmwk ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Can't never tell it could be a messy suprise Thursday morning for alot of folks from piedmont back to the mountains. Your right, never know how pendellum will swing. This is an appetizer that I'll be glad to take, but it's the weekend big synoptic event I want us all to reel in. Cards are on the table for that one, But getting phased storms to work out just right involves divine intervention. Thursday has 2 big hurdles to cross in our neck of the woods, 1) limited moisture and 2) No new surface cold air feed. Not good odds, but when are the odds ever weighted heavily in our favor. Usually we don't find out about good fortune until an event starts to unfold. Can't recall the last time 4-5 days out and the models didn't waffle and get you up v/s down every 6-12 hours. The last 24 hours are a prime example. I'm feeling upty up about the weekend right now, but I'm sure the GFS espeacilly will cause me to want to hit the panic button a time or 2 between now and this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here come the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I think it will cause a mess on the roads across the nw piedmont.........dp's in the lower 20's and lgt sn then ip then over to zr....all it takes is a little pcp with the ground temps so cold........it all way seems like you have the pcp or the cold........not both this far south......things may shift back south on tmro's 12z data xwx factor in no sun angle and even though this is a daytime event, a slushy / slippery mess seems likely. I'd lay some $$ on a school snow day for the Piedmont counties right now. The brining might bail us out on primary roads though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Bring it on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Here come the 0z GFS anddddddddd FAIL....now back to studying for my 8am exam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Your right, never know how pendellum will swing. This is an appetizer that I'll be glad to take, but it's the weekend big synoptic event I want us all to reel in. Cards are on the table for that one, But getting phased storms to work out just right involves divine intervention. Thursday has 2 big hurdles to cross in our neck of the woods, 1) limited moisture and 2) No new surface cold air feed. Not good odds, but when are the odds ever weighted heavily in our favor. Usually we don't find out about good fortune until an event starts to unfold. Can't recall the last time 4-5 days out and the models didn't waffle and get you up v/s down every 6-12 hours. The last 24 hours are a prime example. I'm feeling upty up about the weekend right now, but I'm sure the GFS espeacilly will cause me to want to hit the panic button a time or 2 between now and this weekend. first one will pay for the fuel I need for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 factor in no sun angle and even though this is a daytime event, a slushy / slippery mess seems likely. I'd lay some $ on a school snow day for the Piedmont counties right now. The brining might bail us out on primary roads though. One thing is for sure,waa pcp will over spread the region much quicker than the models p/u........ xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Lot more moisture thru 42 than NAM had for NC 850 in centeal va, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Weekend system beginning to take shape in the SW at hr. 42. Let's see what happens to it from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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