weatherheels Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NAM essentially dry for anybody south of I-40 in NC.... Yep, Seems like the models are wanting to paint the border of NC/Va as a sweet spot again and leave those of us south of it high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NAM essentially dry for anybody south of I-40 in NC.... Yep this run is a lot dryer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 SREF Mean has snow for a 2-3 hours for CLT then a switch over to ZR for another 3 hours then a switch over to rain. Based on it RDU would be the winner for snow but that's only for around 6 hours. You just beat me to it burger. Looking at the SREF members on BUFKIT many of its members are much improved from what they were showing 24 hours ago. Still not a major event but something that would definitely effect travel early Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 It's getting close to time to start packing it in with this one. The we can turn toward the weekend storm to crush all our hopes and dreams. Onto the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z nam piedmont triad/.....starts as sn around 15z thurs and then mixes with and changes to a mod zr event........this is a warning event.......and remember,waa pcp comes in faster than models predict...........1-2" sn over the nw piedmont the a zr event.....dp's are in the low to mid 20's at the start of the event................ xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NAM essentially dry for anybody south of I-40 in NC.... I agree. Very paltry. South of I-40 and east of the mountains looks like trace amounts to possibly .10" Really nothing, and most of that actually arrives when temps are above 32, so this run is token sleet pellets at best for the southern piedmont. Its back to focusing the moisture along a northeast axis from Tenn into eastern Ky and western Va. through 60 hours. I'd be more than happy to let this 20 minutes worth of light sleet pass me by for the opportunity to get a big snow dump Saturday night though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 You just beat me to it burger. Looking at the SREF members on BUFKIT many of its members are much improved from what they were showing 24 hours ago. Still not a major event but something that would definitely effect travel early Thursday morning. If something happens that early 485 will be gridlock as well as 77...if this over performs there are going to be a lot of angry people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The amount of warm advection as portrayed by the 12Z NAM is tremendous. 850 and 800mb winds howl at 55-60kts. The warm nose comes in quickly, but for Asheville, looks like snow overnight before freezing rain towards dawn Thursday and then all rain thereafter. EDIT: Given the stout WAA, it is suspicious why there isn't more precip in NC, especially from AVL to RDU. Seems there is plenty of moisture to work with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Now I know why RAH used the word "chaos" in the overnight discussion when describing the forecast for Thursday and are keeping it as broad as possible right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If something happens that early 485 will be gridlock as well as 77...if this over performs there are going to be a lot of angry people. after the various runs yesterday going back and forth, this morning is not looking too good for over performance at this point. i certainly hope so, but am afraid most of the precip that falls when its cold enough will just be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NAM essentially dry for anybody south of I-40 in NC.... Yep definitely an awful run. Looks like the NAM is finally taking the I-40 snow wall into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 The amount of warm advection as portrayed by the 12Z NAM is tremendous. 850 and 800mb winds howl at 55-60kts. The warm nose comes in quickly, but for Asheville, looks like snow overnight before freezing rain towards dawn Thursday and then all rain thereafter. should be a quick burst of sn,Then to a cold rain in asheville at 2300ft level.........Best place for zr is above 950mb.......2000ft or lower east of the mnts........they are borderline xwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yep, Seems like the models are wanting to paint the border of NC/Va as a sweet spot again and leave those of us south of it high and dry. KVEGAS is arguably near the border, right along I-40, so I wouldn't bemoan its chances yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 WRAL posted on facebook about 45 minutes ago that one model brings measurable snow for the Triangle north, and another says freezing rain and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 KVEGAS is arguably near the border, right along I-40, so I wouldn't bemoan its chances yet. I've lived here 25 years, I know where its at . I'm about 25 miles from the VA border as the crow flies and 3 miles N of I-40. I think my chances are pretty good of seeing some snow at the onset, but I'd rather see this storm throw the moisture further south for all of us. I mean, I'll take snow anytime I can get it, I just dont like the trend the models are showing us on this event with less moisture and warmer temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Looks like another opportunity slipping for the lower piedmont (Burgertimes Triangle of death-no snow). AFter living here for years, i am used to it, but man...I wish mother nature would throw some love to the Shelby-CLT-upper SC corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Heck we here in the east love it when they talk about snow north of I-40 lol........ From MHX overnight disco AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING 2-3 INCHES AND THE GFS SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TIMING...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I live literally a mile north of 40... and my Spanish teacher just said she is cancelling our big test because she heard it sous snow on the news. Noo matter wat happens, something good did come out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Heck we here in the east love it when they talk about snow north of I-40 lol........ From MHX overnight disco AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL INITIALLY START OUT AS SNOW SHOWERS AND TRANSITION TO RAIN BY MIDDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. MODELS DIFFER ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING 2-3 INCHES AND THE GFS SUGGESTING 1-2 INCHES. GIVEN MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON SURFACE LOW TRACK AND TIMING...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Allow me to explain the very complex meteorology of this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Yep this run is a lot dryer. This run gave me sprinkles 101216/0000Z 48 22003KT 32.7F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 101216/0100Z 49 21004KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0200Z 50 21004KT 32.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0300Z 51 21004KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0400Z 52 20004KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0500Z 53 20004KT 32.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0600Z 54 20004KT 32.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 101216/0700Z 55 22003KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0800Z 56 19003KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/0900Z 57 18003KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1000Z 58 16004KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1100Z 59 15004KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1200Z 60 16005KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 101216/1300Z 61 16006KT 33.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1400Z 62 17006KT 33.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1500Z 63 19007KT 35.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1600Z 64 21006KT 35.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101216/1700Z 65 22006KT 37.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/1800Z 66 24004KT 37.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.01 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 101216/1900Z 67 31003KT 36.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101216/2000Z 68 01004KT 35.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101216/2100Z 69 04004KT 34.9F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.02 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101216/2200Z 70 05004KT 34.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101216/2300Z 71 07003KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.03 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0000Z 72 08003KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN QPF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 101217/0100Z 73 VRB02KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.04 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0200Z 74 VRB02KT 33.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.06 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0300Z 75 VRB02KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0400Z 76 04003KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.07 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0500Z 77 05003KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0600Z 78 06004KT 34.0F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 101217/0700Z 79 06004KT 34.2F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.000|| 0.08 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 101217/0800Z 80 06003KT 34.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.008|| 0.09 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/0900Z 81 07003KT 34.2F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.012|| 0.10 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/1000Z 82 07003KT 33.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.020|| 0.12 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/1100Z 83 06003KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.016|| 0.13 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 101217/1200Z 84 06004KT 33.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.0 0.004|| 0.14 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I'm north of 40 and along US1, which can often be the sweet spot with winter storms in the area. It would be nice to have a day off work this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Hate to rub it in but... I work for a school system here in Atlanta, I get two weeks off starting Friday!!! Can't wait! Maybe I can get more model pages done while I'm off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Allow me to explain the very complex meteorology of this: LOL yeah here its the 264 corridor that is oftan the line and that runs right through Gville ...... Looks like we all see some frozen Thur but its gonna be one of these.....Nice heavy snow to start we all start freaking out and say stupid stuff like maybe the models were wrong and its gonna be all snow and the QPF is way underdone......than along comes reality which proceeds to laugh at us then slaps us in the face and it changes to all rain and 34 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 LOL yeah here its the 264 corridor that is oftan the line and that runs right through Gville ...... Looks like we all see some frozen Thur but its gonna be one of these.....Nice heavy snow to start we all start freaking out and say stupid stuff like maybe the models were wrong and its gonna be all snow and the QPF is way underdone......than along comes reality which proceeds to laugh at us then slaps us in the face and it changes to all rain and 34 degrees. I will undoubtedly change to rain, especially south with a WAA / Overrunning event like this. I was just hoping to pick up a light front end accumulation. I actually would not mind a little ZR being it has been years since we have had that believe it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 GFS is a total non-event in most of NC, like the NAM. The best place in NC will be northwest and north central next to the border and maybe the central mountains, the futher south and east you go, the less precip. Through 60 hours theres virtually nothing but trace amounts along and south of 40. and not much more than .10" along the NC VA border but does give ne NC over .25. The real winners are in northeast Tn and western Va, Wva and Ky. Strong warm advection so lot more moisture and dynamics on the other side of the Apps, which was always a possibility. Looks like overruning is about to begin by 72 hours, its linking this event with the next one quick on its heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Thought this was interesting Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1003 am EST Tuesday Dec 14 2010 Still lots of uncertainty with this potential wintry mix scenario. One reason for the somewhat low confidence is that the developing synoptic situation does not fit the normal conceptual model for wintry precipitation for central SC and the Georgia csra. NAM/GFS/ECMWF still have some differences with the timing of precipitation and associated track of the associated track of the surface low. Due to the amount of dry Arctic air in place ahead of this system it is likely that dewpoints will be in the teens to lower 20s at the onset of precipitation and there could be some diabatic cooling effects from evaporation that may lead to possible snow/ice pellets at the onset of precipitation. Latest NAM BUFKIT sounding for clt suggests some freezing rain may be included in the mix early Thursday morning as well. Given current uncertainty...will keep mention of a possible light mix of snow and sleet mainly across the northern counties for the early morning hours before 14z Thursday. I just want a late start to school and I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So this thought is running around in my head and I have read back a ways and still not seeing anyone address it. So here goes. With dewpoints and wetbulbs being what they are at the onset of this precip (assuming we get any precip worth talking about) Because this is not the typical CAD situation, and given the cold air at the surface today and tonight. If / when the precip starts falling is there a chance that with EVAP cooling we never get very much above freezing or will the warm advection from the south be that great? Anyone is welcome to fire away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Even if there is not much precip, whatever falls as frozen will stick to the roads with the temps as cold as they have been. And there doesn't have to be a lot on the roads to cause big problems around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 So this thought is running around in my head and I have read back a ways and still not seeing anyone address it. So here goes. With dewpoints and wetbulbs being what they are at the onset of this precip (assuming we get any precip worth talking about) Because this is not the typical CAD situation, and given the cold air at the surface today and tonight. If / when the precip starts falling is there a chance that with EVAP cooling we never get very much above freezing or will the warm advection from the south be that great? Anyone is welcome to fire away. Completely non-scientific, non-meteorological opinion: We live in the SE, so warm air advection will most likely win out. I hope I'm wrong. Really wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanc2001 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Climatology is correct 99.8% of the time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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