WeatherNC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 0z Global members at 60 hrs good night, somewhat on the frigid side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 JKL has decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch for this system for signifigant ice and snow accumulations for their CWA. MRX is saying 1-2 inches of snow folllowed by .10 ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 lolz....6z NAM is night and day compared to 00z, take into account the 6z GFS and the Euro and we have quite a cluster**** on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Western 2/3rds of Tennessee are under WSW and WWA. Most of Kentucky now under a WSW. Nasty snow to ice set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 lolz....6z NAM is night and day compared to 00z, take into account the 6z GFS and the Euro and we have quite a cluster**** on our hands. At this point I am not certain anyone knows what to expect. Models are not handling the setup well at al. It may come down to a nowcast. One thing I was wondering was, what are the chances/effects of a Lee trough developing here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 At this point I am not certain anyone knows what to expect. Models are not handling the setup well at al. It may come down to a nowcast. One thing I was wondering was, what are the chances/effects of a Lee trough developing here? Well I guess the good thing is the trends, the models have been coming in colder but the closer we get the better the NAM can get a handle on things which is why even just this far out it's dramatic with each shift. We should be used to it in the CLT area, seems like this is how it always goes. If were in RDU I wouldn't be worried a tick about it however we've seen this too much south of 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well I guess the good thing is the trends, the models have been coming in colder but the closer we get the better the NAM can get a handle on things which is why even just this far out it's dramatic with each shift. We should be used to it in the CLT area, seems like this is how it always goes. If were in RDU I wouldn't be worried a tick about it however we've seen this too much south of 40. What did the NAM show this morning N.NC ? Locals on TV seem to think it's a non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 What did the NAM show this morning N.NC ? Locals on TV seem to think it's a non event. Basically what the NAM this morning said at 6z was that the only folks to get anything out of it were extreme NW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Basically what the NAM this morning said at 6z was that the only folks to get anything out of it were extreme NW NC. OK, Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yeah, the 6Z runs were not encouraging. Let's hope the 12Z cycle is better. I'm not holding my breath-given the non-American model output from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 yeah, the 6Z runs were not encouraging. Let's hope the 12Z cycle is better. I'm not holding my breath-given the non-American model output from last night. I have a hard time buying the Euro, the NAM has had this storm from the get go while the Euro has flipped and flopped with the timing of it dramatically. Of course knowing our luck Euro last night is probably gonna verify 100% . I think by 00z we start trending colder and this turns out to be a surprise, no science to back me up just pure speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I have a hard time buying the Euro, the NAM has had this storm from the get go while the Euro has flipped and flopped with the timing of it dramatically. Of course knowing our luck Euro last night is probably gonna verify 100% . I think by 00z we start trending colder and this turns out to be a surprise, no science to back me up just pure speculation. I think this is just going to be a generic now-cast type thing. Our local mets all the way down here in Columbia, SC are already forecasting sleet/snow tomorrow night, NOAA same deal. They all keep saying nothing is sure yet and it's a big timing thing. Either way I think down this far, we will see it turn to rain by 6 or 7am the next morning. It's barely any moisture involved this far South. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole diabatic cooling process kills all the moisture before we see anything at all here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I think this is just going to be a generic now-cast type thing. Our local mets all the way down here in Columbia, SC are already forecasting sleet/snow tomorrow night, NOAA same deal. They all keep saying nothing is sure yet and it's a big timing thing. Either way I think down this far, we will see it turn to rain by 6 or 7am the next morning. It's barely any moisture involved this far South. I wouldn't be surprised if the whole diabatic cooling process kills all the moisture before we see anything at all here. Highs tomorrow and Thurs. in the 40's-50's, not frozen precip here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I have a hard time buying the Euro, the NAM has had this storm from the get go while the Euro has flipped and flopped with the timing of it dramatically. Of course knowing our luck Euro last night is probably gonna verify 100% . I think by 00z we start trending colder and this turns out to be a surprise, no science to back me up just pure speculation. I believe we all be happy by Sunday. Everybody know models are crazy until about 72-48 hr time frame and even then they change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 I believe we all be happy by Sunday. Everybody know models are crazy until about 72-48 hr time frame and even then they change There's two storms being talked about in here. There's the system swinging through tomorrow night and then the weekend system. I think we need to create a thread for the weekend system and keep this one on tomorrow's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 trying to stay positive here the 6z gfs ensembles did look slighty south for the 16th and faster on the precip arrival overall. I admit though that I was somewhat surprised that the at least operational Nam and Gfs shifted back north again. I thought our South trend was here to stay. Hopefully it was just a 6z thing and it will shift back south with 12z update. Key seems to be strength and placement of vortex in the Northeast. It was slightly weaker at 6z. I also think this is important for the amount of cold air we have to work with for the weekend system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 trying to stay positive here the 6z gfs ensembles did look slighty south for the 16th and faster on the precip arrival overall. I admit though that I was somewhat surprised that the at least operational Nam and Gfs shifted back north again. I thought our South trend was here to stay. Hopefully it was just a 6z thing and it will shift back south with 12z update. Key seems to be strength and placement of vortex in the Northeast. It was slightly weaker at 6z. I also think this is important for the amount of cold air we have to work with for the weekend system. If I may ask; where do you obtain your ensemble data at? I have yet to find a really good clear site as the e-wall is pretty crappy. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 SREF Mean has snow for a 2-3 hours for CLT then a switch over to ZR for another 3 hours then a switch over to rain. Based on it RDU would be the winner for snow but that's only for around 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tazaroo Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 If I may ask; where do you obtain your ensemble data at? I have yet to find a really good clear site as the e-wall is pretty crappy. Thanks! Raleighwx's site. Link off this forum at the go to tab top right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 NAM looks like it's going to be a mix between the 00z and 6z, at 30 hours. PV isn't as west as 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Well at 36 it's looking more like 00z but a little bit colder. Let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12Z NAM is a good bit colder at 39 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Via Twitter - @NCDOT NCDOT preparing for the possibility of snow, ice across the state. Brining of roads 2 begin in areas expected to be most affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Vortex is much stronger this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 For those so inclined, Jeff Crum has Winter Chatroom up and running.... http://wx-or-not-nc.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 Vortex is much stronger this run And given the potent vortex - it's about time it was properly initialized! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 There's two storms being talked about in here. There's the system swinging through tomorrow night and then the weekend system. I think we need to create a thread for the weekend system and keep this one on tomorrow's. I'll 2nd that motion !!!! is a LOT confusing trying to keep score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NAM essentially dry for anybody south of I-40 in NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 This run is much slower so it gets to warm for anything by the time the moisture is moving in...which is around 12z on Thursday. RDU still has a shot verbatim this run but it's low and the precip is very light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted December 14, 2010 Share Posted December 14, 2010 12z NAM essentially dry for anybody south of I-40 in NC.... I beg the differ on that. Look at the 700mb humd chart not to dry there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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