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December 16th event

RaleighWx

By RaleighWx,
in Southeastern States

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TullyHeel

TullyHeel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 3:56 PM, rduwx said:

WRAL called for a Trace - 2". I think that's a pretty good call. That means we could get a trace w/ a max of 2". You just can't look at the 2" and forget about the trace part.

BTW, nice writeup Allan!

Yeah, I guess they have to be as broad as possible. You never really know about winter weather here until it actually starts happening.

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

New AFD from FFC

UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LIGHT WINTERY MIX OF SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN OVER AL MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AT

THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND

INCREASED POPS OVER WEST GA TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE MORNING

AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO REINFORCE THE

WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT. WAITING ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO

UPGRADE TO WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTH GA COUNTIES

OR NOT. DUE TO SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS A LOT

OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVAPORATING. HOWEVER...

THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH THE PRECIPITATION REACHING

THE GROUND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR BY SUNSET. NO OTHER CHANGES

NEEDED ELSEWHERE.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

12z RGEM valid 10am and noon tomorrow, transition north of 40 looks to occur around 3pm, with areas along the NC VA boarder seeing the best hit. Precip is exiting the coastal plain around 5pm. Big problems in and around the triangle in terms of commute it this were to verify.

I_nw_r1_EST_2010121512_027.png

I_nw_r1_EST_2010121512_029.png

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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TullyHeel

TullyHeel

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:25 PM, WeatherNC said:

12z RGEM valid 10am tomorrow, transition north of 40 looks to occur around 3pm, with areas along the NC VA boarder seeing the best hit. Precip is exiting the coastal plain around 5pm. Big problems in and around the triangle in terms of commute it this were to verify.

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

That's all I am asking for out of this, just enough to get a day off work. Looks like it lasts pretty much the whole work day if that verified. The big problem is it is spposed to start during the morning rush hour, so it's going to be tough for schools and work to make a call to close or not.

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HWY316wx

HWY316wx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:13 PM, DaculaWeather said:

New AFD from FFC

UPDATE...

CURRENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A LIGHT WINTERY MIX OF SLEET OR

FREEZING RAIN OVER AL MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WEST CENTRAL GA AT

THIS TIME. HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND

INCREASED POPS OVER WEST GA TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE MORNING

AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ISSUED A SPS TO REINFORCE THE

WINTERY MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON AND

TONIGHT. WAITING ON THE 12Z MODEL RUNS TO DECIDE WHETHER TO

UPGRADE TO WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR EXTREME NORTH GA COUNTIES

OR NOT. DUE TO SUCH LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS A LOT

OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE EVAPORATING. HOWEVER...

THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY WITH THE PRECIPITATION REACHING

THE GROUND BY LATE AFTERNOON OR BY SUNSET. NO OTHER CHANGES

NEEDED ELSEWHERE.

Atleast they did not call for thunder. :rolleyes:

Glad to see they are warming up to the idea. No pun intended.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:25 PM, WeatherNC said:

12z RGEM valid 10am and noon tomorrow, transition north of 40 looks to occur around 3pm, with areas along the NC VA boarder seeing the best hit. Precip is exiting the coastal plain around 5pm. Big problems in and around the triangle in terms of commute it this were to verify.

Question is, now do we trust the RGEM? Haha! Thanks for your thoughts on the NAM, by the way. Hopefully, we can get the precip in here a little sooner and stronger than the models are showing.

When is it time to start looking at the SREF?? :thumbsup:

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:41 PM, ams30721us said:

???

lol ?? sorry if that didnt make sense...i am busy this morning and trying to follow the weather at the same time. it seemed like the frz rain was expanding in alabama and they were extended the advisories, but the precip is hitting a wall in ga. gsp radar showed a few echos over head but the sun is out with high clouds. so i was thinking most of the stuff here will be virga, until the temp hits 32.1 LOL

so i was thinking alabama got a little surprise with all that, but that it wouldnt here (even though i was secretly hoping so, of course)

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weatherheels

weatherheels

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:11 PM, superjames1992 said:

Blacksburg has put out Winter Storm Watches for the counties immediately north of GSO and north and west of INT. We'll see if RAH issues something here.

RAH is more than likely going to put out WWA for the area. Seems like from what Blacksburg is predicting for Stokes county they should do advisories as well because 1-3 inches of snow and 1/10 ice isn't warning criteria, is it?

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:48 PM, NEGa said:

lol ?? sorry if that didnt make sense...i am busy this morning and trying to follow the weather at the same time. it seemed like the frz rain was expanding in alabama and they were extended the advisories, but the precip is hitting a wall in ga. gsp radar showed a few echos over head but the sun is out with high clouds. so i was thinking most of the stuff here will be virga, until the temp hits 32.1 LOL

so i was thinking alabama got a little surprise with all that, but that it wouldnt here (even though i was secretly hoping so, of course)

My DP is still dropping???? I'm getting dryer, not more moist. My wet bulb is still 25 degrees. I think it will be another 4 hours before we see anything at the rate it's currently moving.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:38 PM, georgiawx11 said:

I'm not sure, but I bet this is one of the coldest La Nina December's that we've ever seen.

Check the other thread. I did some research on this and as of 12/13, everyone on this board is running -9 to -11 so far this month against the means. Will be record Cold and on pace to set it.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted
  On 12/15/2010 at 4:48 PM, weatherheels said:

RAH is more than likely going to put out WWA for the area. Seems like from what Blacksburg is predicting for Stokes county they should do advisories as well because 1-3 inches of snow and 1/10 ice isn't warning criteria, is it?

No, I think that's WWA criteria. I expect RAH to go with a WWA, as well.

Hopefully they issue it before the storm unlike a couple weeks ago when they issued it during the storm.

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strongwxnc

strongwxnc

Posted
Posted

Good work Jeremy!

Need to put that link in your sig.

  On 12/15/2010 at 5:35 PM, eyewall said:

I am working on building a site for the Sandhills region but I already posted a forecast there along with a call map.

Go to http://www.sandhillswx.com

The forecast and discussion pages are up and running. I am still working on the rest

In short here is the NC Call:

nc-call.jpg

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