Jon Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 00z NAM looks like points north and nw of I-40 get snow to start, most of the moisture in this storm is in Kentucky, getting railed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:10 AM, Jon said: 00z NAM looks like points north and nw of I-40 get snow to start, most of the moisture in this storm is in Kentucky, getting railed! I agree, I think most models look pretty bad in central to northeast KY. Through 39 hours they have over .75" and still below freezing, that would be horrible. The first few hours would be snow but someone in there is going to get some power outting type ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Wow this run sucks. 42 hours the fun is pretty much in VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:10 AM, Jon said: 00z NAM looks like points north and nw of I-40 get snow to start, most of the moisture in this storm is in Kentucky, getting railed! yep, light precip over far n ga in to the western carolinas otherwise pretty bland. soundings dont look good for this area. edited to add: jeesh what a change from just yesterday it would be nice to have one shift/trend in our direction for a change (like it appeared to briefly monday morning) as we approach, not the other way around (yeah i know, same old gripe) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:13 AM, FoothillsNC said: I agree, I think most models look pretty bad in central to northeast KY. Through 39 hours they have over .75" and still below freezing, that would be horrible. The first few hours would be snow but someone in there is going to get some power outting type ice. Yep major issues there. On 12/15/2010 at 2:14 AM, eyewall said: Wow this run sucks. 42 hours the fun is pretty much in VA. Well I'm willing to say pass on this one. Let's hope this weekend can give us something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:14 AM, NEGa said: yep, light precip over far n ga in to the western carolinas otherwise pretty bland. soundings dont look good for this area. edited to add: jeesh what a change from just yesterday it would be nice to have one shift/trend in our direction for a change (like it appeared to briefly monday morning) as we approach, not the other way around (yeah i know, same old gripe) Well, sometimes we have storms well south and they trend north at the last minute juest enough for parts of northern GA, SC, NC, and VA to cash in instead of sending the storm out to sea, so in those cases I love the north trend...but for this one, VA had enough fun last year...it's our turn. But at least it shows SOME precip, but maybe I'm biased as the "best" of the SE is smack dab RDU and northward...I wouldn't mind bring this thing a smug down south either. edit: anddddd after 42hrs we have the liquid movin in. Oh well. next! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:17 AM, burgertime said: Yep major issues there. Well I'm willing to say pass on this one. Let's hope this weekend can give us something. its been over 5 years since we had any icing here that created any kind of issue (although .75 is about my limit. too much more and its too damaging to the trees, etc) the way things have been lately, the weekend storm will end up in indiana too bad the speed up in precip arrival time didnt continue today like it was previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:19 AM, Jon said: Well, sometimes we have storms well south and they trend north at the last minute juest enough for parts of northern GA, SC, NC, and VA to cash in instead of sending the storm out to sea, so in those cases I love the north trend...but for this one, VA had enough fun last year...it's our turn. But at least it shows SOME precip, but maybe I'm biased as the "best" of the SE is smack dab RDU and northward...I wouldn't mind bring this thing a smug down south either. This run is border line ZR/SN for RDU for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:19 AM, Jon said: Well, sometimes we have storms well south and they trend north at the last minute juest enough for parts of northern GA, SC, NC, and VA to cash in instead of sending the storm out to sea, so in those cases I love the north trend...but for this one, VA had enough fun last year...it's our turn. But at least it shows SOME precip, but maybe I'm biased as the "best" of the SE is smack dab RDU and northward...I wouldn't mind bring this thing a smug down south either. More like Hillsborough and northward on this one... but at least we don't live too far south. I'm not terribly enthusiastic about this one but not ready to give up hope. NAM still spits out 1-2" of snow IMBY, then some freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:20 AM, burgertime said: This run is border line ZR/SN for RDU for a few hours. yes...this run, 36-42hrs...I'll take it if this is all we get Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 that shortwave in the southern stream looks amped there in southern Arizona. The cold air is so far up there though, its going to be a tight race. I just noticed I'm already at 18 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 It looks like the NAM is holding the energy for our weekend storm back a little longer. Maybe this will buy us some more time for cold air to sag south... and allow a piece of northern branch energy to hit it early enough and far enough south to get us in the game. (it's a long shot... but stranger things have happened) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:22 AM, Jon said: yes...this run, 36-42hrs...I'll take it if this is all we get Thursday. good luck! your 6 hour frozen precip window was in n ga as of late yesterday afternoon if this thing keeps doing that kentucky may be out of the action by tomorrow's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdevil Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 I would be happy to see a little frozen precip at the onset as the 00z Nam suggest for North Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:21 AM, chapelhillwx said: More like Hillsborough and northward on this one... but at least we don't live too far south. I'm not terribly enthusiastic about this one but not ready to give up hope. NAM still spits out 1-2" of snow IMBY, then some freezing rain. Could you post a qpf map from the NAM? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 If it don't hurry up and start I'm not going to get a flurrie or pellet either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Total through 60hrs http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/model_s.shtml On 12/15/2010 at 2:27 AM, AirNelson39 said: Could you post a qpf map from the NAM? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 nice qpf hole right over the southern foothills and piedmont, I can buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:28 AM, BIG FROSTY said: If it don't hurry up and start I'm not going to get a flurrie or pellet either But the trick is BIG FROSTY is to see the check handed to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:35 AM, FoothillsNC said: nice qpf hole right over the southern foothills and piedmont, I can buy that. Par for the course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:37 AM, rgrimes945 said: But the trick is BIG FROSTY is to see the check handed to me! I hear ya Ray ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:38 AM, burgertime said: Par for the course. You could fit your triangle right in it- imagine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:41 AM, Lowpressure said: You could fit your triangle right in it- imagine that. Always! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Well, that sucked. On to the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the cold air is bowing around the southern Apps . At 78 hours the 925 freezing line is from Norfolk to near AVL to Huntsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 On 12/15/2010 at 2:45 AM, FoothillsNC said: the cold air is bowing around the southern Apps . At 78 hours the 925 freezing line is from Norfolk to near AVL to Huntsville. NAM is colder then GFS at 84hrs and doesn't have as much moisture in the area either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 the 84 hours the zero at 850 is near Boone, NC and bends southwest. There's not much surface low and no 850 low with it, but this is the NAM , which is bad at this hour. The southern stream is healthy and should be a nice storm. Its not over by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Also looks like the PV is much further west then the 18z GFS...of course it is 84 hrs at the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 Not over until Sunday:) On 12/15/2010 at 2:49 AM, FoothillsNC said: the 84 hours the zero at 850 is near Boone, NC and bends southwest. There's not much surface low and no 850 low with it, but this is the NAM , which is bad at this hour. The southern stream is healthy and should be a nice storm. Its not over by any means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdevil Posted December 15, 2010 Share Posted December 15, 2010 im really liking the potential of this weekend storm Everything is pointing towards a snowfall somewhere in the southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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