MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0z GFS is cold and stormy in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0z GFS is loaded with potential the next 2 weeks... We shall see.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0z GFS is loaded with potential the next 2 weeks... We shall see.. Barely any warm air in the long range on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Barely any warm air in the long range on the GFS Now now Ant, let's remember what 18z showed lol. Don't expect much from models at this range, especially considering they are doing a complete 180 every six hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 0z GFS is loaded with potential the next 2 weeks... We shall see.. You mean the potential it has been showing since earlier this month? lol How are you doing man? Long time no talk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 You mean the potential it has been showing since earlier this month? lol How are you doing man? Long time no talk! lol.. Yeah that potential. Im good bro.. Just relaxin and enjoyin the holiday. How was your holiday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 One thing it does not show is a -NAO, that Atlantic Ridge needs to build towards Greenland for any real potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 did a 20 second loop look at the 00z gfs and it looks good. Mean trough in the east, ridge out west and a NAO that is trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 In case anyone hasn't noticed, SnowGoose mentioned in the main forums about two days ago that this upcoming December looks very similar to the Decembers of 2003, 2004 and 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 did a 20 second loop look at the 00z gfs and it looks good. Mean trough in the east, ridge out west and a NAO that is trying. There are hints of an Iceland block trying to form at points later in the period but nothing sustained ever really gets going. My guess is the ensembles are picking up on that Iceland block, its better than nothing but it generally does not help us much. The GFS is likely much too cold on its 00Z run given the +NAO and relatively progressiveness to the pattern, also the Euro is significantly warmer and has the cold air masses more in southern Canada. The GFS shows a very December 1988 pattern as was alluded to by one of the other Mets in the main thread section 3-4 days ago. That month the massive ridge in the GOA resulted in a slightly below normal December with a few snow chances (though none other than the LI norlun event really panned out) despite the +AO and +NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Euro still brings a light snowfall at ~150 hours per wundeground maps on a wave along a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 As per soundings on Accuweather, that is 3-6 inches of snow in Northern NJ with .28 definitely having fallen as all snow between 144 and 150 hrs at KMMU and probably the majority of the .48 that fell before that between 138 hrs and 144 hrs. It has -1.4 at 850 at both 144 and 150 hrs and surface at +1.6 at 144 hrs and +1.1 at 150 hrs. At 138 hrs it had +4.4 at 850 and +4.5 at the surface, so apparently that wave really pulls the cold air in quick as the storm moves by and that wave develops and as soon as that precip starts to fall it looks to me that it will quickly change to snow after 138 hrs and before 144 hrs, so to me it looks like the majority of that .76 falls as snow, or at least 75% of it, which would mean a 3-6 inch snow for Northern New Jersey. Of course this is 6 days out so all of this is just for entertainment purposes but it is interesting. Also, it shows 2.55 inches total for this storm at KMMU. Oh how little changes in path with this storm could produce a monster snow. Not likely at all, but definitely interesting to watch. This storm has looked bizarre from day one and the GFS is amazingly clueless with it at the moment. I would still say that anything is possible from this storm with the most likely scenario obviously being all rain but the very outside chance of an incredible snow event. Keep in mind also how warm the Euro was with both this last storm and the October 29th storm for our area. It was about 1.5 Celsius too warm with both storms at the surface. Euro still brings a light snowfall at ~150 hours per wundeground maps on a wave along a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 6z gfs and the earthlight model, DGEX, both have a close call snowstorm day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 06z NAM now shows nearly 65 degrees for all of NE NJ tomorrow. I'm enjoying this warmth for now as long as we do not see this again at any point between December and February: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 lol.. Yeah that potential. Im good bro.. Just relaxin and enjoyin the holiday. How was your holiday? It was good, thanks for asking! Im ready to get some snow now. This warmth is killing me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The 0Z Euro would give the northern half of NJ a few inches of snow per these Clown Maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 12z GFS has multiple chances of snow in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 1322240049[/url]' post='1142303']12z GFS has multiple chances of snow in the long range. Has a light snowfall in the day 7-8 period as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 12z GFS looks like it has multiple transient cool spells in the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 The GFS looks like a sloppy mess I can't tell what the hell is going on. Trough, ridge, zonal, gradient pattern, back to ridge, cold alaska, warm Alaska, dogs and cats sleeping together, mass hysteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 1322241776[/url]' post='1142365']The GFS looks like a sloppy mess I can't tell what the hell is going on. Trough, ridge, zonal, gradient pattern, back to ridge, cold alaska, warm Alaska, dogs and cats sleeping together, mass hysteria. Ggem also has the light snowfall event at day 8, just like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 Ggem also has the light snowfall event at day 8, just like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 At this time I do not buy it. This pattern is does not produce snow for the I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 1322242740[/url]' post='1142403']At this time I do not buy it. This pattern is does not produce snow for the I-95. Does not support a big snowstorm. But dink and dunk events are possible in these transient patterns. 93-94 was like that. Close to 20 small events with a couple bigger events mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 540 Line west of Mt Earthlight, that's rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 25, 2011 Share Posted November 25, 2011 1322243046[/url]' post='1142408']540 Line west of Mt Earthlight, that's rain. Trough is negative. Next frame would show a big time DGEX fantasy snow storm, I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 12/6 looks to be the next real shot of anything substantial, but getting a quick 1-3 is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 25, 2011 Author Share Posted November 25, 2011 Trough is negative. Next frame would show a big time DGEX fantasy snow storm, I would imagine. Frankenmodel, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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